Rainy daze


Here’s how many rainy computer mirages the 5 PM AST global data from yesterday came up with for mid-December, as rendered nicely by IPS Meteostar.  There are so many panels with rain here or close by in that model run, will post them as superthumbnails, a compressional graphics bit of razzle dazzle.  Besides, you might be titillated more by something interesting that you can’t quite make out unless you click on it, “go the extra mile”, as it were.

5 PM AST, December 9th, a close call.
5 PM AST December 11th. Starts raining this day.
5 AM AST, December 12th, ex-wife’s birthday. Still raining.
5 PM AST, December 12, still raining.
5 AM AST, December 13th. Still raining. Remember these rainy images were produced by a computer(s) costing millions of dollars.
5 PM AST, December 13th. STILL raining around here!
5 PM AST, December 17th. Rain moves in again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, this is the kind of weather change I am counting on now. Have been seeing rain for us now in every model run, though timing varies some, as would be expected out a week or more.

Spaghetti, too, now strengthening in the reliability of these predictions of a major change in the flow pattern ahead, a change that will FINALLY produce some rain here. Yay!  That strengthening in spaghetti suggests something is being missed out there, perhaps something in a data silent zone…or there are some errors bigger out there than the itty-biity ones they deliberately put in to “perturb the models” because earlier they weren’t showing much support for a big change until last night.  Speculating here….expeculating forecasted RAIN here is real this time!

This one at left for December 11th 5 PM AST as our storm period begins.  Note all the blue lines (jet stream core ones) sagging into the SW now.  Big change from prior ones.

The End, except for some exceptional 24 h northern California rain totals as of 6 AM PST this morning:

:

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST - MAD / VAN DUZEN / EEL / MATTOLE
 :
 MADC1 : RUTH LAKE           G(2760) :  0.24/  0.48/  1.24/  3.16/  4.40/  4.96
 KNNC1 : KNEELAND            G(2737) :  0.24/  0.45/  0.66/  2.33/  2.94/  3.85
 ACV   : ARCATA              Z( 223) :  0.25/  0.56/  0.68/  1.41/  1.99/  2.41
 BGVC1 : BRIDGEVILLE         G( 640) :  0.20/  0.40/  0.88/  2.04/  2.92/  3.44
 EELC1 : COVELO              G(1500) :  0.31/  1.07/  1.38/  1.99/  2.68/  2.76
 ALDC1 : ALDERPOINT          G( 923) :  0.27/  0.55/  0.86/  1.77/  2.11/  2.26
 FTSC1 : FORT SEWARD         G( 217) :  0.20/  0.44/  0.92/  2.08/  2.72/  2.88
 LEGC1 : LEGGETT             G( 700) :  0.12/  0.48/  1.04/  3.16/  3.96/  4.04
 MRNC1 : MIRANDA             G( 263) :  0.16/  0.32/  0.96/  2.72/  3.48/  3.84
 HONC1 : HONEYDEW            G( 370) :  0.24/  0.44/  0.72/  2.68/  5.48/  6.92
 :
 :       SHASTA LAKE INFLOW
 :
 SDFC1 : SAND FLAT           G(6750) :  0.20/  0.68/  1.52/  3.08/  4.04/  5.52
 MHS   : MOUNT SHASTA - ASOS Z(3590) :  0.19/  0.65/  1.12/  1.97/  2.93/  3.20
 MSAC1 : MOUNT SHASTA - USFS G(3591) :  0.22/  0.76/  1.33/  2.47/  3.74/  4.07
 GRDC1 : GIRARD              G(4800) :  0.24/  0.88/  1.56/  2.96/  4.72/  5.72
 SLTC1 : SLATE CREEK         G(5700) :  0.20/  0.68/  1.08/  2.16/  3.84/  4.40
 LSHC1 : LAKESHORE           G(1100) :  0.88/  2.20/  3.04/  5.00/  6.12/  8.08
 MCCC1 : MCCLOUD             G(3650) :  0.36/  0.79/  1.17/  +   /  +   /  +   
 MCUC1 : MCCLOUD DAM         G(2690) :  0.56/  1.07/  1.56/  2.75/  4.08/  5.51
 HRZC1 : HIRZ                G(3200) :  0.32/  0.64/  0.92/  1.52/  2.08/  4.68
 AAT   : ALTURAS             Z(4366) :  0.16/  0.25/  0.29/  0.31/  0.32/  0.32
 ATSC1 : DEVILS GARDEN       G(5022) :  0.15/  0.27/  0.32/  0.35/  0.35/  0.35
 CNYC1 : CANBY               G(4312) :  0.29/  0.56/  0.73/  +   /  +   /  +   
 OMTC1 : OAK MOUNTAIN        G(2670) :  0.41/  0.98/  1.39/  2.27/  2.93/  3.51
 PRPC1 : PIT R PWR HOUSE #5  G(1458) :  0.81/  1.26/  1.71/  2.57/  3.47/  3.47
 SNWC1 : SNOW MOUNTAIN       G(5950) :  0.40/  0.84/  0.88/  1.60/  2.52/  3.08
 HLCC1 : HILLCREST           G(3440) :  0.24/  0.48/  0.76/  1.20/  1.52/  1.56
 SHDC1 : SHASTA DAM          G(1075) :  0.24/  0.80/  1.28/  2.40/  3.32/  7.88
 :
 :       WEST SIDE UPPER SACRAMENTO VALLEY
 :
 HDLC1 : HOADLEY             G(4580) :  0.24/  0.84/  1.28/  1.88/  2.24/  2.52
 CLCC1 : CLEAR CREEK         G(3300) :  0.48/  1.12/  1.84/  3.28/  4.48/  4.88
 SFKC1 : SOUTH FORK MOUNTAIN G(3450) :  0.27/  0.89/  1.73/  3.41/  4.57/  6.81
 BDYC1 : BRANDY CREEK        G(1300) :  0.20/  1.60/  2.84/  5.28/  6.96/  9.40
 PLIC1 : ARBUCKLE BASIN      G(2493) :  0.16/  0.53/  0.75/  1.30/  1.71/  2.05
 CTNC1 : COTTONWOOD CREEK    G(3400) :  0.32/  0.64/  0.92/  1.48/  1.80/  1.96
 OGOC1 : OGO RANGER STATION  G(1300) :  0.16/  0.64/  0.96/  1.56/  1.88/  2.08
 DVRC1 : DAVIS RANCH         G( 550) :  0.52/  0.84/  1.00/  1.28/  1.40/  1.44
 SDCC1 : SADDLE CAMP         G(3850) :  0.35/  0.66/  0.92/  1.26/  1.51/  1.56
 TCRC1 : PASKENTA            G( 720) :  +   /  +   /  +   /  +   /  +   /  +   
 BLBC1 : BLACK BUTTE DAM     G( 426) :  0.00/  0.14/  0.32/  0.51/  1.43/  1.44
 ECKC1 : ALDER SPRINGS       G(4550) :  0.30/  0.57/  0.81/  1.32/  1.91/  1.94
 SGEC1 : STONY GORGE RSVR    G( 800) :  0.00/  0.00/  0.00/  0.00/  0.01/  0.01
 :