1) Let yesterday morning’s color show speak for itself, just incredible, speaking for it anyway.
2) Please review the U of AZ time lapse film here to understand why it takes the biggest computer Fujitsu can build to calculate what the atmosphere is doing. Also reviewing this let’s you escape from the tedium about to be presented below.
3) Expect a similarly photogenic day today.
The rain just ahead
Rain masses will be forming to west of Catalina today and will pound eastern Cal and western AZ for about 24 h before roaring in here tomorrow morning. Staying the course, best guess, from extremes of at least 0.33 to a max of 1.50 here, is 0.915 inches (the average of the worst and best case scenarios) here in “Catalinaville” as the total amount from this “hit” tomorrow and the showers afterwards into later Tuesday, as a second storm part comes by. Thunder tomorrow seems likely from this keyboard as the big rainband goes over.
During the passage of the rainband tomorrow, rainrates are likely to get up to an inch an hour, at least briefly, (this is the rate, NOT the duration) and typically, with several hours of moderate (0.1 to 0.3 inches per hour) to heavy rain (greater than 0.3 inches per hour) we should get a nice drenching.
The weather way ahead, 10 days or more
After a long dry spell following this upcoming rain, spaghetti is strongly indicating we have more troughiness in our future after the temporary dry spell!
Check it out, spaghetti connoisseurs2:
The spaghetti plots, taken together, indicate to the present Arthur that the chance of rain twixt spaghetti 1 and spaghetti 2 shown above is about 70%. It will be extremely FUN to see if this interpretation works out for rain between March 11-15th, at least one event anyway, to continue overusing that word.
The End, finally.
1Didn’t Jimmy Buffet do a song about Catalinaville? Has a nice ring to it. Maybe we should think about it… Or maybe, in a vein similar to Carmel-by-the-Sea, “Catalina-by-the-Catalinas.”
2Remember, spaghetti is better than the model in the medium range forecasts that are presented based on the global data. Spaghetti is there to help you decide whether that model output is from the WRF-GFS looney bin or not. Here’s how:
Spaghetti is the result of DELIBERATE little errors put into the model when they start crunching the data to see how the forecast that you see on the maps could go wrong if there are errors in the data.
Of course, there are ALWAYS errors in the data! So, when the Fujitsu Computer DIvision made gigantically capable computers for us that were better than the ones we could make, ones that could do teraflops per second, we in the weather community could then run many permutations of the same model with itty-bitty errors in the initial data to see how the results changed (diverged) in the longer term.
Remember, too, in weather itty-bitty differences can add up to large ones in the longer term. So, when the model permutations with little errors cluster and DON’T diverge, it provides more confidence that the forecast storm, for example, is more likely to happen in that fuzzy forecast range of beyond 10 days or so. End of giant footnote.