Summer and water year rain stats

Today, something useful….

Summer 2012 rainfall, June-September:  9.04 inches, average 7.27 inches.

Water year rainfall, October 1, 2011 through September 30th, 2012:  16.00 inches, average 17.04 inches.

No trend in summer rainfall at Catalina evident over the past 36 years. Yay!

 

While water year rainfall declined after the very wet years when Catalina records began at Our Garden, the water year rainfall has stabilized over the past 10-15 years. Yay#2.

 

To see surrounding values, in some cases considerably higher than Catalina’s go to the U of Arizona’s rainlog.org and in the upper right hand corner, select, “date range.”  This is an enormously handy tool to compare area totals.  (Some stations, however, do not have a complete record, and so some totals are ludicrously small.)  Its interesting to note the isolated contributors to rainlog.org who are in British Columbia, Canada and in the Mid-west.  How funny.  They must really like us.

The weather ahead

The models are still indicating a cold trough and rain chances here beginning on the 9th-11th (last evening’s 11 PM AST run of the WRF-GFS model.  That’s it for the next 15 days.

Here is strong evidence that we will be affected by a pretty strong lower latitude trough coming across California and combining with another one dropping down from the Pac NW, this ensemble or “spaghetti plot” from NOAA:

Notice the lack of blue contours in the northern US, AND just inside the interior of the West Coast where there are “dark spots.”  Those mean that there is a pretty reliable chance of a trough in the interior of the West on the afternoon of Monday, October 8th at 5 PM AST (October 9th, 00 GMT).  The absence of contours in the northern tier of the US indicates that the jet stream will be south of its usual position (suggested by the green line).

The most reliable predictions in a spaghetti plot are where the blue lines are bunched together, such as in the central and western Pacific Ocean in this output map.

All this doesn’t mean its going to rain here for sure, but there will certainly be quite a change in the temperatures here about this map time (plus or minus a day or so) and a rain threat.

The End.