Sunny malaise


2clr4me.  I’ve never texted before, but there it is.

Unfortunately 4me, but fortunately for those “bird people” that come here to avoid real weather, it is going to be sunny except for some passing cirriform clouds over the next few days, a real weather malaise.  However, the good part is that the temperatures are rebounding pretty fast.

However, we can take solace in the fact that clouds and rain are again on the model horizon, not the real one.   Those friendly Canadians up north in their version of the ECMWF model have indicated it will be a whopper, whilst the USA “WRF-GFS” is indicating just a mild event, one that occurs much later than the Canadian “solution.”  (“Solution”, hah!   Nothing is solved here!)  So, once again, we are stuck with a lot of uncertainty partly because it originates with another low that has/will drift away from the main jet stream.  Here is the Canadian view of a whopper for this next Monday.  Note that AZ is as green as a leprichaun below, lower right panel, indicating widespread rain.  Note big upper low center circulation centered over Kingman, AZ (upper left panel).  This would be a very wet scenario for Catalinans.

Next the US model for the same storm and time (Monday afternoon at 5 PM LST) from IPS MEteostar.  Note that a low center is nowhere to be seen in AZ, but INSTEAD two low centers are seen, one over Crescent City-Eureka-I-Found-It, California, and one west of Ensenada, MX.   This is so funny!  Yet annoying.  But no rain has yet appeared anywhere in AZ in the US model at this time!  In fact, as seen in the last map for the exact same time as the Canadian model with all that rain in AZ, the nearest rain to us is sill about 300-500 miles off the California coast!  Amazing!  Yet, annoying.   These are calculations based on physics.  (Well, the “physics” are implemented differently.)   Imagine if your hand calculator said that 2 and 2 was 4 on one day, and the 7 the next.   The world would be discombobulated because no one can do math in their heads anymore.

It takes a coupla more days for the US model rain to get here to AZ, late next week, and then,  its marginal at that.  Well at least the US model has some rain in it someday.  I guess we should be thankful for that.

But what would be a “tilter” in this scenario when you have such “model divergence”?  Persistence might do it.  Look how the Canadian model result below so strongly resembles the kinds of storms we’ve had since the start of November, the isolated low that drifts down into the SW.  This seems to be, at least,  our early winter pattern that we have seen several times now, and when IN a pattern, it may be best in forecasting to “stay the course”, lean toward the model solution that shows the kinds of storms that have already been happening when the models outputs are so different.   It will be fun seeing how this turns out!

The End.