The only model output you need to look at today

Here, from last night.  Has a great solution to weather: all AZ rains beginning the NW portion of the State late on the 21st, spread over the rest of the State the next day (22nd) and continue into the 24th.  Not looking at other models since they might be different.

Incoming Pac trough (bend in the upper level winds) curls into low center over southern Cal, then takes a couple of days as it slowly spins east over the US-Mexican border allowing beau coup moisture to flood into AZ from the south.

The End, and pretty easy today;  saw what I wanted to and went with it.