Droughtbusters! (When you have a drought)
Kind of exciting today as another complex, hard-to-predict upper low center breaks off from the main jet stream and circulates down into the Southwest on Thursday and then sits and spins for a couple of days. What so exciting to trigger a blog in the afternoon?
One of the enigmas has been that the Canadian model, often shown here because most of my relatives are Canadian, and the USA ! model have had large differences in where this upper low center will end up once in the Southwest and cut off from the main flow. Once in place, it sits and spins for a while, which means that if you are in the right place, it might rain off and on for a couple of days. A cut off low in the SW is one of my favorites patterns of all time, not that you care. Remember that low of December 1967 in Arizona? The one that nearly buried the State in snow when it sat around for a couple of days in almost the same spot?
Well, this incoming one is not as gigantic as that 1967 one, but, it has potential to produce a lot of rain in the State for the same reason: sitting and spinning like a record player somewhere in the SW for a couple of days before moving on.
Today’s model runs were exciting because now the USA and Canadian models are in sync. Previously the USA model had the low in a spot in which most of the rain would miss us, while the Canadian one had a pretty wet scenario for us.
Now, from this morning’s global data, they BOTH see the low ending up over southern California, drifting very slowly eastward, and BOTH have good rains predicted for the State! Imagine a couple of days of good rains. Wow. Droughtbusters! (in the plural because two models have this scenario now.)
Well, of course, it doesn’t guarantee it will happen just because both models are showing the same thing over several days, but it is very encouraging. Fingers crossed.
Below, an example of this cut off low, well away from the main jet, sitting over about San Diego. This depeiction is valid for Friday morning at 5 AM LST. The whole loop can be seen here. Enjoy.