Snowbirds may head back to Arizona as low temperature records fall in the eastern US in a few days

Forgetting about yesterday’s unforecast subdued afternoon convection hereabouts after about 1 PM), lets talk about the misery of others; the little crybabies that leave Arizona in the summertime, decimating its economy, so that they can be cooler and “happy” in northern climes (while dodging hail and tornadoes, we might add).

Well, how about them birdies being really COLD before very long, due to record breaking low July temperatures?  Yes, that’s right, what’s left of the “polar vortex” will once again, due to global warming, of course, spin out of control and down into the northern US in just about 5-7 days.   And with it, long term July low temperature records will fall in the eastern US. Count on it.

So, once again, as some scientists alleged last winter,  global warming will actually cause cooling.  (Almost everything that happens is due to GW these days, as we know. (“GW”, BTW,  now repackaged in the catch all, temperature-neutral phrase, “Climate Change”,  during the past few years because, globally, it stopped getting warmer way back in ’98, and when the years began to pile up without global warming, scientists had to find another phrase to hang their mistaken hats on.  (Where was the usual scientific “caution” back then?)

HOWEVER, continuing on with this harangue, and being a “lukewarmer”,  we must watch out that the coming big El Nino doesn’t release a spring-loaded,  pent up release of global heat.  Might well happen, so don’t give up on “GW” quite yet; hold some cards on that question for another few years.

And, of course, if there is a step jump up in global temperatures just ahead, the phrase, “climate change” will be dumped by scientists and media for “global warming” again.  Count on it, #2.

But, I digress, mightily, mainly due to yesterday’s cloud disappointments.

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Not in a great mood after yesterday’s bust, as you can tell, except for that strong thunderstorm that pummeled the north side of the Catalinas beginning about 11:30 AM, that was pretty cool; had continuous thunder for about an hour and a half, too. Dan Saddle up on Oracle Ridge got 0.63 inches, but you can bet 1-2 inches fell somewhere up there.

I was so happy then.

I thought the “Great Ones” would arise upwind of us in the direction of Pusch Ridge, but no.  Those clouds got SMALLER as the afternoon wore on, it was incredible, and by sunset they were gone with only trashy debris clouds of Altocumulus and Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus from great storms in Mexico drifting over our sky.  Even the sunset was disappointing.

Well, that 3:15 am to 3:30 am little shower this morning than dropped 0.15 inches here in the Heights, and 0.24 inches down there at the Bridge by Lago del Oro gave a psych boost1 that got me here on the keyboard.

10:55 AM.  Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret.  This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought).  When you see this happening this early, you also look for an "explosion" some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this.
10:55 AM. Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret. This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought). When you see this happening this early, you also look for an “explosion” some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:55 AM.  Close up, in case you don't believe me.
10:55 AM. Close up, in case you don’t believe me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11:04 AM.
11:04 AM.

 

7:33 PM.  Your sunset.
7:33 PM. Your sunset.

Today?  Check here.  Once again, mod expects early Cumulonimbus on The Lemmon, then groups of thunderstorms move in during the evening (as was more or less predicted yesterday, but didn’t happen.)  Will go with mod again, though, because I would like that to happen.

The weather way ahead

We’ve talked about cold air, now to balance things off, how about a discussion of the warm air ahead?  Real hot air.

Was blown away by the spaghetti outputs from last night for the period of about two weeks from now.  You can see the whole package from the NOAA spaghetti factory here. Below, our weather in 12-15 days, usually beyond confident predictions, but not here:

201407221700 spag_f288_nhbg

Valid at 5 PM AST July 22nd. Massive blob of really hot air settles in over the western half of the US.  In this map, the most reliable long term predictions are over the western half of the US and over the Saharan Desert (indicated by the lack of lines in those two areas.  A lot of lines means the weather pattern is pretty unpredictable.)

 

Valid at 5 PM July 22nd.  Massive upper level blob of really hot air sits over the entire West!
Valid at 5 PM July 25th. Massive upper level blob of really hot air continues to dominate the western half of the US.

&

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The hot blob of air should lead to record HIGH temperatures all over the place in those days beginning around the 20-25th of July.  Rainfall here?  Indeterminant.  If the high center sits over us, it might just be hot, real hot, but dry.

But, if the configuration aloft is as shown in the second plot, it could be very wet as tropical disturbances shift northwestward from Mexico into Arizona.

Sorry, can’t do much with precip from these,  I don’t think.

The End, and covering all the possibilities, CM

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1Paraphrasing, the song for weathermen, those speaking to clouds; “Rain on me, when I’m downhearted….”