Our WY total has crested over 11 inches now. Its at 11.08 inches for the water year ending on September 30th, still about 5.5 inches below normal with only dry days ahead. Still it was nice to see a great thundersquall come through on the last day of the summer regime, though I was about 12 miles away from Catalina when it hit. So, I missed the last summer-type rain of the season with its momentary blinding rain and 40 mph winds; I had to be told about it. That season will be just a memory now.
If you’re a reader of this blog, and I know who both of you are, you MAY recall that yesterday, off-handedly really, it was written here that, “I don’t think it will rain today.” But it did rain, which is pretty remarkable in itself. It has previously seemed that if I think or say something, that’s what happens, almost like a supernatural connection of some kind with the future. Some of the astrologers out there know what I am talking about, maybe palm readers, too.
I will go through what happened just that bit, well, quite a bit, while I display some photos and our thinking was about what we were seeing. I know that our thinking would be exactly the same since you read this so much.
Now, when I started yesterday morning on this blog, the dewpoints were very high around here, 60s, and there was a little line of clouds in the satellite imagery on our doorstep to the west. Part of that north-south oriented cloud line is what you saw when you got up yesterday morning.
However, the dry air was already into central Arizona, with dewpoints in the 40s at PHX and Yuma; it was coming fast as the trough above scooted over us dragging a cool front. Behind the cool front would be the dry air.
So what are you and me looking for when we think an LL Cool Front is approaching, along with its wind shift?
A line of clouds, solid, broken or even scattered. So, when you saw that line of heavy Cumulus piling up in a line, SW to NW from Catalina, you and me were both thinking, “Droop, there it is!1“, to recall a song first heard on the TEEVEE show, “In Living Color.”
8:26 AM. Front on the doorstep or not. Looking west toward the Tortolitas. Even though the clouds are piled high, notice that there are NO rain shafts. No ice, and even with the warm bases at about 10 C (50 F), rain from drop collisions with each other also did not form. See smog shots later; smog is an impediment to that process.
8:24 AM. Heavy Cu line extends off to the N as well, strongly suggesting a wind shift is causing it. Again, no rain shafts are seen from these large clouds.8:20 AM. While the sights to the west were promising, the amount of smog (not dust here) was deafening. Sure there were pretty highlights as the crepuscular rays focused on our still green mountains, but still, its not a good sign for precip; works against it by causing the drops in clouds to be smaller than they would be in “clean” conditions.8:38 AM. Eventually those tops did reach ice-forming levels, those likely colder than -5 to -10 C yesterday, and rain shafts began to emerge, as here. But, that was off to the north beyond S-Brooke, and the clouds to the SW of us were turning ragged, drying out.9:06 AM. By 9 AM, any hope for rain here had seemingly vanished as the clear signs of dry air moving in, along with subsidence aloft, were now clear to you and me. It hadn’t rained, and though I always hope it will, I was amazed at how my risky forecast of “no rain” had magically occurred, leading to a slight case of megalomania, grandiosity, if you will. It was though I had spoken to those smoggy clouds directly. It was finished. I thought I might as well leave and go on some errands; no chance of rain now! I also think of myself as kind of a Garrison Keillor of clouds, tellling stories about them, and continuing a megalomaniacal theme here. “I try to tell the truth”, Garrison once said, then continuing, “but the truth doesn’t always take you as far as you need to go.”9:03 AM. Looking NW. Those huge clouds of just a few minutes earlier are gone, and now only suppressed versions of Cu are seen.
Then, the transformation back to what we had just seen earlier that morning! It was amazing, with HUGE Cumulonimbus clouds arising from the same appearing line of heavy Cu. Here we go into “error”, and I would add, humility:
9:49 AM. Was in route to Marana at this time from SH, but stopped to take a photo. Though these Cu had fattened up from nothing, thought they would be dessicated by the dry air moving in, that is, would look ragged and shredded and not amount to anything.10:14 AM. What? This was a shocking view, this Cb and rain shaft, upwind of Catalina. I still had to keep going to finish an errand though; not race back and enjoy what could be the last storm of the summer rain season.11:15 AM. Your storm, about to strike. Those clouds on this side of the giant, mounding Cb were the ones that done it, ones that exploded upward a few minutes later. Fortunately, I got some first hand reports from neighbors and used some imagination to experience how bad it was for a few minutes.11:57 AM. Just back in SH country, and the showers are still around, here to the NW.11:58 AM. But this view to the SW and upwind, is really The End, its over, it is finished, etc. The summer rain season has ended for us. The dry is moving in now, the clouds will wither and die even as the afternoon warms up some.
The only weather ahead now for the next couple of weeks is temperature changes. That’s about it, so will take a little break here, maybe only post once in awhile, and more on climo or science stuff.
The End.
————————— 1Modified for baseball to, “Bloop, der it is!”. A “bloop” is a weakly hit ball that falls for a base hit.
Yesterday, in a ploy to get some rain, I “dared” it to rain on the water year data I presented for Catalina. I didn’t think it would, to be honest, and also wanted a data “scoop” over other presenters of data who might be too shy to present data prematurely. Remember, the rubric here is, “Right or wrong, you heard it here first!”
Yesterday, the water year total I presented has ended up being slightly wrong.
It did rain. Furthermore, the 0.08 inches, is the heaviest amount around if you check our Pima County ALERT gauge data.
Our new Catalina water year total is 10.91 inches after a hard, few minute rain just after 8:30 PM. Mountains to the east were obscured, too, in a whitish haze so quite a little Cumulonimbus cloud emerged from that evening cloud deck, so rain-free for so many hours.
All in all, it was a dramatic day yesterday since the U of AZ rendering of the GTS-WRF had showers developing quickly in the middle of the afternoon and it was SO CLEAR, the sky SO BLUE for so long (a deep blue sky suggests dry conditions aloft), and I wondered if I hadn’t seen an obsolete model run (while out tramping around on a horse yesterday morning)1.
Finally, just before 11 AM some Cumulus started to form on the Catalinas, but more on the north sides. But then clouds slowly started to form everywhere and they gradually filled as the day went on, but were precip-free. Cloud tops remained too warm to form ice, which as you know is the -10 C level (with some exceptions; very warm cloud bases, or, very cold ones).
So, while the sky was very pretty, thank you, there was no virga, or showers visible, at least until very late in the afternoon after I had pretty much given up on seeing precip or ice, though came out to look every 8 minutes to make sure I didn’t miss any surprises. Diligence was to be rewarded; yours, too, I hope. I might also note that the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster run from 5 AM AST, available by mid-morning, also saw that the inversion capping cloud tops was going to be eliminated by 5 PM yesterday; this as a major trough in the westerlies cruises into Arizona from California today. It was just about as perfect a forecast as you can get, since it was just after that time, that cloud tops were able to sprout that bit higher and form ice, and an icy top appeared east of the Catalinas, and showers and virga appeared off toward the N.
Today?
Bye-bye, tropical air and summer-like clouds by later today (dry westerlies blasting in behind cool front). I will miss you terribly, summer clouds, but will have to wait until next June or July to see you again. Boo-hoo. Will be a very pretty day, but, rain not likely with front.
Below, your cloud pictoral for September 21st:
11:13 AM.11:12 AM.1:33 PM. If you’re like me, and I REALLY hope you are or you’re not going to get much out this blog, yesterday you were straining your eyes for an icy sprout upwind. But, it never happened. I don’t know how many good plays I missed during football day because I kept coming out to look upwind; all over really, for some ice. The Washington Huskies won, my former company team, BTW, taking care of “cupcake”, Idaho State. Its great when you play non-competitive teams and don’t have to worry about anything, like so many teams do these days. Oh, BTW, the clouds are coming right at you here.4:47 PM. By this time, several Cumulus in the area began to bulk up to congestus size, reflecting the loss of that capping stable layer up top. View is looking N across SaddleB.5:07 PM. While the Catalinas were still pretty “quiet” as far as producing clouds goes, the passing shadows on them were fabulous.5:20 PM. By this time, several light rain showers were visible to the N-NNE due to ice developing in the fatter Cu.6:05 PM. Wonder if you logged this first visible icy top, beyond the Catalinas? It was only visible for a minute or two before being obscured by the clouds in the foreground. You were probably watching football, maybe even “Johnny Football”, and letting your cloud obs slide I bet. I’ll get over it after awhile.6:15 PM. By this time, clouds were beginning to mass in over the Catalinas in the upwind direction and, with ice around, you began to wonder, well, maybe not YOU, because you’re probably still watching football, but I began to wonder, “Could it rain here? Could these reach up to the ice-forming level? And they did as little radar echoes began to form over and downwind of the Catalinas as night fell, preceded by a nice sunset.6:25 PM. Another in a long series of nice sunsets that occur in Arizona. Here, Stratocumulus clouds are under lit by a setting sun.
———————– 1 footnote photo below
9:03 AM. In case you didn;t believe that I could be a weatherman and also be able to ride a horse. Been bucked off a few times, too, though I don’t recommend it. Here, weeds of Catalina Regional Park. which most of us hope will be completed before the year 2150.
Add to text box, lower left, the words: “….unless you’re quite young.”
Looked like there was a leveling off during the past 15 years, along with the “puzzling 15-year hiatus1” in global warming, coincidentally, so I used a “poly” fit instead of a linear one that would reflect the “stabilization” of water year rainfall in these latter years. Those early wet years in our record are now associated with a big change in the positions where the lows and highs like to be in the Pacific, one that comes around every few decades called the “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO). The change to a new regime occurred in 1977-78, just when the Catalina rainfall records started at Our Garden down on Stallion where you should buy some stuff. There was also a gigantic El Nino in 1982-83 that contributed to that early wetness. Remember all the flooding in September and October of 1983?
You may notice that I have posted this some ten days before the end of the water year. I dare it to rain on this year’s data! (And I hope it does, given our meager total.)
Yesterday’s clouds
Many more and thunderstorms much closer than expected from this keyboard (heard thunder just after 12 Noon!) Here’s our day in pictures:
8:15 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus provides some nice lighting effects on the Catalinas.10:03 AM. Early risers, like that middle one, suggest tremendous instability up there.10:31 AM. See excitement note.
12:06 PM. Cumulonimbus/thunderstorm forms NE of Catalina. Due to high and cold cloud bases (at and a little below freezing later) this cloud has a high preponderance of ice compared to our more tropical Cbs.12:38 PM. Eventually becomes the “Dump of the Day” over there by the town of Oracle as it recedes (boohoo).3:44 PM. As noted in the title, yesterday’s clouds with their cold bases had a LOT of ice in them, and in most cases, not a lot of rain fell out. Here, an example of a dissipating Cb that didn’t produce much more even in its peak than what you see here, a VERY slight shaft.6:24 PM. Still, some nice color at sunset. That’s what this blog is mostly about, pretty pictures, in case you missed those scenes of the previous day..
Today…. Dewpoints are up from yesterday over much of southern Arizona, and mods suggest a similar day to yesterday, scattered to broken Cumulus clouds with an isolated Cumulonimbus, with more coverage in rain than yesterday. Whoopee! Rain is actually predicted here! How fantastic would that be? And I would have to update my opening just graph just that bit, an enjoyable task, really.
Mods are also indicating that some rain may leak into tomorrow as our first tentative cool season-style trough and front pass by. We’ll see. In any event, should be a pretty day today and tomorrow. Try not to be inside the WHOLE day watching football!
If you were on Ms. Mt. Lemmon, or just in Tucson yesterday taking your wife to the airport for some reason, you would have seen a line of large Cumulonimbus tops lining the east through southeast horizon in a broken line. It was pretty impressive, and demonstrated how close our summer rain regime still is, astronomically speaking anyway.
2:37 PM. Distant Cbs dot dot dot the horizon beyond the Rincon Mountains to the east. Photo taken while not driving; it just looks like someone held a camera pointed out a side window while driving and also not looking to see how the camera was pointed. Its a photographic niche I’ve developed. Lightning was being reported at Douglas at this time, too, though they did not add to their once-in-a-hundred-years summer rain season total yesterday.
There is still enough heat and moist air around for some small Cu around here, but that’s about it for today and tomorrow, though the Canadian model still thinks there will be some big enough clouds for them rain in the general area of SE AZ today and tomorrow.
But, just small Cu can produce dramatic scenes on the Catalina Mountains, much better ones than just a clear sky, so that’s SOMETHING to enjoy before the long clear days following the complete end of our summer rain season and the desiccating air that follows by Sunday and Monday.
About the most we can expect after the Cu are gone is the occasional appearance of CIrrus clouds once in awhile as storms in the westerlies track across the West, but to our north.
Next, I thought I would post a map of global ocean temperature anomalies for September 19th, in case you were thinking about going to the beach somewhere. Seems like most of the ocean is slightly warmer than normal for some reason, except around Antarctica.
The presence of an El Nino, as you likely know, can help jack up precip totals in the Southwest in the late winter and spring. So, its likely that official predictions will be for another drier than normal cooler half of the year (October through May).
Global ocean temperatures on September 19th.
Will have some additional Catalina climo charts in the next day or so, maybe an erroneous personal prediction of the October through May precip like last year’s…hahaha, sort of.
As water year winds down, just a couple of weeks left, its worthwhile to see where we are. Pretty dismal. You can see why the spring wildflower bloom was minimal around here. Great December, though!
Can there be any rain before the official end of the month, measurable rain that might improve our dismal 10.83 inches, droughty total?
Not if you believe our own WRF-GFS model run from last night, but, “yes” if you like Canada and the Canadian GEM model. It has some rain in the area for us on Sunday the 22nd. Here it is:
Valid at 5 PM, Sunday September 22nd. Note green in SE AZ (lower right panel), and blue for moist air around 10,000 feet ASL in the left lower panel. Excellent model run.
In the meantime, our own model run has the moist plume WAY to the east at that same time, and so no rain here. Here is that map from the WRF-GFS , as rendered by IPS Meteostar, for moisture around 10,000 feet ASL. The blue moist plume in the Canadian model above (get microscope out) is the same as the green one below, except that the green moist plume is shoved off to the east and south. Dang.
Also valid for 5 PM AST, Sunday September 22nd. The green plume here across NM and into the Plains should be compared with the blue plume at this level (700 mb) in the Canadian run above.
Saw some clouds in the moonlight just now. Seems that drier air can’t quite get rid of our summer regime moist plume, one that even yesterday was close enough to us to have produced a thunderhead off toward Mt. Graham and vicinity to the NE. The chances are small we’ll get any more measurable rain, but as in sports, that moist plume seems to be hanging around, and you know that old sports saying that when heavily favored teams let underdogs “hang around”; don’t blow them out as expected, upsets can happen. Well, of course, that’s what I am hoping for, just that bit more rain to at least push us over the 11 inch mark. Its not a BIG hope, just 0.17 inches more before October 1st.
Here are a couple of cloud shots from yesterday:
7:34 AM. When it seemed the mid-level moisture should be gone, there it is, hanging around. These Altocumulus clouds meant that Cumulus were also likely to form in the above normal heating we have going on now. 9:38 AM. Some Cirrocumulus (fine granulation with waves in it). Since some areas have shading, not allowed for Cc, it would have to be considered a mix of Altocumulus and Cc (often observed) or just termed Altocumulus since the height is much lower for this complex of clouds than cirriform clouds. Gads, I doubt that’s clear. Oh, well. 2:09 PM. Thunderheads arose repeated in this area, then dissipated soon after this shot. 3:12 PM. A little patch of Cumulus humilis, kind of looks like someone leaping at something. No ice visible.
Later I noticed that the afternoon sounding from TUS had ZERO CAPE, a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is. With zero CAPE (no instability indicated), you don’t expect a Cb. Hence the title, a sciency humor.
With yesterday’s capped clouds, capped by a horrific inversion at 16,000 feet above sea level, you may have spotted this remarkable sight late yesterday; first the wide angle view, then the zoomed view:
6:08 PM. Can you find the little rogue Cb? Has a transparent rain shaft below. I was stunned to see it!
6:08 PM. Zoomed view. Now you can just barely make out the little rain shaft, and the ice-ed out tops sticking up above the Stratocumulus clouds. Just amazing! How did this happen? Don’t know, unless it was REALLY hot over there. The 5 PM AST Tucson sounding for yesterday from the University of Wyoming Cowboys, located in Laramie, Wyoming, the happiest state in the whole US. Really, there is hardly a jollier people than those in Wyoming!1 According to our analysis software, there is no instabiity indicated that would support a Cumulonimbus cloud protruding to 25 or 30 Kft as the one in the photos above is doing. But, oops, there it is!
Still, even with mashed clouds, yesterday was often a very pretty one, in the 99 F heat here in SH, and ended with a great sunset. See below:
12:24 PM. Mounding Cumulus cloud adds a bit of interest here. Thought it was possible for some virga, but didn’t happen. Not cold enough for ice to form in mounding top, but you knew that already. Also, the high mountain horizon NW-NE was “silent” yesterday. No Cb tops seen.
3:31 PM. One of the greatest examples of Cumulus humilis (“humble”) you’ll ever see. They’re screaming at you; “my head hurts; there’s an inversion on it!” 6:32 PM. “All’s well that ends well”–Bill Gates. Yesterday’s heating and strong inversion kept the Cu hum forming and filling in so that they accumulated at the base of the inversion, eventually leading to almost overcast skies in the late afternoon and evening. And with clear skies farther west, resulted in this beauty as the sun sank below the horizon.
The weather ahead…
Seems like were destined to be on the edge of the summer rains for another week or so, meaning we might have to get telescopes out to see a big fat Cumulonimbus clouds. Canadian model from last night had some rain moving into southern AZ on the 23rd ahead of a big trough. We’ll see.
I also saw, in the “Moonlight Feels Right moonlight this morning (the singer of that song keeps laughing; must be from Wyoming….)”, some Altocu around. So, at least another scenic day, it a dry one today.
—————————- 1OBJECTIVE HAPPINESS BY STATE. I’ve posted this before, but I felt it was good to remind my reader where the jolliest people are in case he/she’s thinking of a vacation and want to go to a happy place, not a grumpy ones like those in New York State.
Looks now, in spite of a few Altocumulus clouds around that yesterday was the LAST day of our summer rain season in terms of having rain. Much drier air moving across Arizona from the west now. Kinda sad about it, still yesterday was GREAT, a final tribute in a way. Will have some stats tomorrow on how we did here in Catalina/SH compared to normal. Big trough comes in around the 25th to give a preview of cool fall weather. I suppose you’ll like that, not being hot every day.
In the meantime, your cloud day yesterday below, in detail, of course.
6:37 AM. Altocumulus, still hanging out, providing a nice sight during a dog walk.
6:38 AM. Ones over there, too. Nice Ac castellanus turret sticking up in the distance. Another day with a chance of Cumulonimbus clouds.
9:12 AM. Pretty Altocumulus/ floccus and castellanus (has a flat bottom). 11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a “cloud street”, one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts. 12:08 PM. Here’s a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there’s a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead ’round here. 12:26 PM. Nothing much going on in this cloud street. But it will, amazingly enough. 12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, “Huh. That’s not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?” At this point, you start obsessing over this largest cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don’t want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. That’s probably what you should have done. 12:55 PM. You’re upset you didn’t call a friend because now you see that there’s a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch. 1:00 PM. Just five minutes later, the shaft is already on the ground! 1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn’t another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty. 4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they’ve been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, “hold the ice”; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down. 6:36 PM. Still, it was a great cloud effort yesterday, and here even in the evening, some are still putting out. And with a couple of drops from the earlier storm to the NW, we got to register a trace of rain in The Heights.
Today’s cloud lesson is in a quiz format. Find the ice in the photos below. As you know, ice in clouds is nearly always required before rain can fall out of clouds here in, well, all of Arizona, not just here in Catalinaland. Can you see some in the photos of of moderate Cumulus clouds below?
If nothing else, these shots show the kind of pretty skies we have now days. A few isolated Cumulonimbus clouds remain on the far horizon, NW to NE, as our summer rain season goes on, but barely. You can see those in the photos, below, if you have some binoculars.
3:20 PM.
Also 3:20 PM, but over this way some more.
4:43 PM. Anything of interest over there by Prescott?
6:32 PM. Seems to be getting darker earlier.
6:33 PM. The moon.
BTW, I would suggest a hike/horseback ride into the Catalina foothills because there is currently an amazing profusion of morning glories in their full glory. Here are a couple of examples of what was seen last Saturday in a hike up the “Middle Gate” up into the foothills. It was STUNNING! They were not just along the trail, but extended into the brush like poppies do in the spring. So pretty. Took too many photos, was it 200? (202). But every few yards up there on the east side of the Sutherland Wash was so seductive.
The extreme dryness above a shallow moist layer yesterday made it tough to get any rain out of the several thunderstorms that occurred WNW to N of Catalina. No black walls of rain from those guys, which seemed odd due to their sizes. The dainty “waists”, the mid-sections of tall clouds so often seen yesterday, was also odd.
Here are some shots, beginning with the auspicious start of early towering Cumulus clouds over the Catalinas:
10:45 AM. Lookin’ good for a thunderstorm coming off the Catalinas. 12:15 PM. First Cumulonimbus well underway! A nice early start to precipitating clouds! However, look at how the top is leaning off to the east. You haven’t seen that in months, and is an indication of that dessicated air flowing from the west is eroding our tropical air in the mid and higher cloud levels. This also means that the rain, resulting from melting snow and graupel in high glaciated turrets of Cumulonimbus clouds , is falling out into very dry air instead of down through the base of the cloud. Not good. 3:15 PM. Pinched off. Another sign of just how dry the air was in the middle heights of these clouds. 3:42 PM. A great looking Cumulonimbus cloud and thunderstorm, looks wide enough to produce a good drenching. But look how far along it is, with its BIG, classic anvil, but with almost no rain coming out. This view is misleading because you’re lined up with the wind, the anvil is shearing off from the body of the cloud and coming at you. So, the icy parts are not really stacked above the base as it may seem from this photo, and that aspect that’s needed for the “black wall” to emerge from the bottom. Still I was hopeful. Sometimes updrafts are so strong they shoot up and defeat the wind shear, stand straight up like a mountain, and allow vertical “stacking”, but not yesterday. 3:55 PM. By this time the whole icy anvil was leaving the rest of the cloud behind, and no good rains could fall from this. Still, some rain fell. This complex continued to regenerate for an hour more over there by the Tortolitas before disappearing all together. 5:47 PM. An amazing sight, this extremely tall cloud, shooting up through the extremely dry air above its base. Cumulus clouds can do this because on the way up they have circulations in them akin to vortex rings which protect them to some degree from the dry ambient air on the way up (they’re still entraining the ambient air around them). However, when the air motion slows and the vortex rings fall apart, dry air rushes in and kills the cloud. In cloud speak, this is called, “entrainment.” This is much like a smoke ring that travels across a room and then suddenly, disintegrates as the spinning inside it slows down.
6:28 PM. As usual on these last summer rain season days, we had another pastel sunset, so nice to see.
There will still be enough lower level moisture over the next few days for Cumulus clouds, and maybe distant Cumulonimbus ones.
Way out there, in model fantasy land, the WRF-GFS mod from last evening’s global data crunch, has a tropical storm remnant affecting us on the 30th, but nothing before then.
Buried among the small fair weather Cumulus clouds over the Catalina Mountains were a two fair-weather vortices. Have seen only maybe six of these in a lifetime of skycentricity:
11:04 AM. Dust devil-like tube hanging down from a dissipating Cu humilis. Also at 11:04 AM. As zoomed a view as I could get. If you stared at it, you could see little fragments of cloud whirling around. Wouldn’t wanted to have been a glider pilot and have gone through it. 11:13 AM. Astonishingly, another one popped up. Seemed to be rotating more slowly than the first one. Strange indeed.
In the meantime, after more hours heating, a few Cumulonimbus clouds reared their heads, ones that were much closer than the day before. Was hoping for an eruption over Ms. Lemmon, but it didn’t happen. Didn’t even see any ice form in those clouds. Wonder if you saw and logged these Cumulonimbus tops in your weather diary yesterday? First a precursor shot:
12:11 PM. First Cu turret seen that really stuck up thousands of feet higher than anything else yesterday. Don’t see signs of ice yet, that it had gotten high/cold enough to form precip. Nice lighting, though, with those shadows on the Gap. Its a great scene when have them on our now greenish mountains. 2:24 PM. An exciting moment for you; the first ice top sighting of the day. visible at left through the Gap. You might go on to think, “Hey, maybe Ms. Lemmon will pop one off later. You’re feeling good about things.”
Below, zoomed views of Cumulonimbus tops, ones that were closer than the day before, but not that close.
2:27 PM. Just minutes later, you’re looking past the Catalinas and toward the Rincons, and voila, ANOTHER Cumulonimbus top has arisen! Its a great scene, full of portent for the Catalinas and Ms. Lemmon.
3:51 PM. As the afternoon begins to fade, and more barely noticeable Cumulonimbus tops logged in your weather diary, you realize that Ms. Lemmon just hasn’t got it today. BTW, this is a very stringent test of your ice acuity since only the best of you would be able to see that these are ice tops for the most part, “Cb calvus”, calvus meaning “bald.”
Below, as promising as the clouds got over the Cat Mountains yesterday. I was so hopeful here, as I know you were, too, that maybe at least a little shower would drift off, some ice would form in these bulging Cumulus mediocris to Cu congestus clouds. But no, none of that happened. Still, its a nice photo with those nice shadows on our greenish mountains, to repeat a thought since I’ve run out imagination.
2:53 PM. Pretty much the peak of the cloud development over the Catalinas yesterday, hold the ice.
Looks like a pretty similar day ahead, some Cu, an isolated Cb somewhere out there, and that’s about it as our “tropical river” remains east of us, terminating on Boulder, Colorado, while flushing out NM as well with big storms. If you want to read more about what done it, you should go to Bob’s site since he’s written up stuff in journals about the huge prior floods in Colo and SD, that are somewhat similar to the current deluges in Colo.
This is the very SAME tropical river responsible the recent heavy rains in eastern California and southern Nevada, across Arizona and New Mexico, into Utah and Colorado over the past week. While there will be plenty of damage with this last Colorado deluge, the drought relief aspects will be worth billions.
