Sunrise – Page 4 – Cloud-maven

Nearby locations get shafted as summer thunderstorms go on for one more day

Looks now, in spite of a few Altocumulus clouds around that yesterday was the LAST day of our summer rain season in terms of having rain. Much drier air moving across Arizona from the west now. Kinda sad about it, still yesterday was GREAT, a final tribute in a way. Will have some stats tomorrow on how we did here in Catalina/SH compared to normal. Big trough comes in around the 25th to give a preview of cool fall weather. I suppose you’ll like that, not being hot every day.

In the meantime, your cloud day yesterday below, in detail, of course.

SONY DSC — 6:37 AM. Altocumulus, still hanging out, providing a nice sight during a dog walk.

9:12 AM. Pretty Altocumulus/ floccus and castellanus (has a flat bottom).

11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a "cloud street", one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts. — 11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a “cloud street”, one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts.

12:08 PM. Here's a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there's a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead 'round here. — 12:08 PM. Here’s a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there’s a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead ’round here.

12:26 PM. NOthing much going on in this cloud street. But it will amazingly enough. — 12:26 PM. Nothing much going on in this cloud street. But it will, amazingly enough.

12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, "Huh. That's not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?" At this point, you start obsessing over this cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don't want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. — 12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, “Huh. That’s not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?” At this point, you start obsessing over this largest cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don’t want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. That’s probably what you should have done.

12:55 PM. You're upset you didn't call a friend because now you see that there's a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch. — 12:55 PM. You’re upset you didn’t call a friend because now you see that there’s a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch.

1:00 PM. Just five minutes later, the shaft is already on the ground!

1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn't another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty. — 1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn’t another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty.

4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they've been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, "hold the ice"; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down. — 4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they’ve been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, “hold the ice”; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down.

6:36 PM. Still, it was a great cloud effort yesterday, and here even in the evening, some are still putting out. And with a couple of drops from the earlier storm to the NW, we got to register a trace of rain in The Heights.

Isolated, but “volcanic”

Forgot the nice sunrise and another faint rainbow, two mornings in a row! In case you missed them, again, here they are:

While yesterday’s Cumulonimbus clouds were sparse, their “overshooting” tops told you that they had pretty violent updrafts in them, ones that carried the top of the cloud past the tropopause (the boundary where the decline in temperature as you go higher stops). Above the tropopause sits the stratosphere, normally cloud-free and extremely dry.

These “overshooting” tops are due to inertia generated by the strongest updrafts in the cloud below them, they end up being much COLDER than the surrounding air in the stratosphere because the air is still expanding and cooling as the cloud punches through the tropopause. Like stones in water, they plummet back down quickly as they drift away from the root updraft. The worst volcanoes, like El Chicón in the early 1980s and, of course, Pinatubo in 1991, do this, too, and to a lesser degree these overshooting tops also inject aerosols and moisture into the stratosphere. These tops are usually easily recognized as a bulb-looking, whiter top above the flat anvil, the anvil representing cloud top ice that has been stopped by the tropopause barrier and has spread out.

Some examples:

1:10 PM. Violent looking Cb with an overshooting top. There were many of these yesterday, regrettably so far away you couldn't even see the rain shaft! Boohoo. — 1:10 PM. Violent looking Cb with an overshooting top, one that punches through a flatter anvil cloud. There were many of these yesterday, regrettably so far away you couldn’t even see the rain shaft! Boohoo. Here, looking SSW from Catalina, range about 50 miles or so.

2:51 PM. I thought this cluster looked especially "volcanic" with how tight the Cumulus tops were in the foreground. When the updrafts are strong from the base on up, you have a lot of aerosol particles taking part in the condensation melee, cloud droplet concentrations are extremely high, the clouds are extremely dense inside, might not be able to see the wingtip of your aircraft. For this reason they look like granite on the outside. When ice forms, such as in the higher tops, the concentrations are less and the cloud "softens" in appearance. — 2:51 PM. I thought this cluster looked especially “volcanic” with how tight the Cumulus tops were in the foreground. When the updrafts are strong from the base on up, you have a lot of aerosol particles taking part in the condensation melee, cloud droplet concentrations are extremely high, the clouds are extremely dense inside, might not be able to see the wingtip of your aircraft. For this reason they look like granite on the outside (center). When ice forms, such as in the higher tops, the concentrations are less and the cloud “softens” in appearance (highest top, left of center), one that appears to have punched through a flatter anvil cloud.

2:56 PM. Many Rim Cbs also had overshooting tops. In our worst storms, with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and blinding rain, you can pretty well be sure that you're under one, or close to it. — 2:56 PM. Many Rim Cbs also had overshooting tops. In our worst storms, with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and blinding rain, you can pretty well be sure that you’re under one, or close to it.

1:38 PM. Mt. Lemmon did join the Cumulonimbus producing fray in the distant mountains around us, but they were about a magnitude smaller than the ones in the distance, and, as you saw, could not leave the high terrain. — 1:38 PM. Mt. Lemmon did join the Cumulonimbus producing fray in the distant mountains around us, but they were about a magnitude smaller than the ones in the distance, and, as you saw, the several that formed could not leave the high terrain.

Seems we have a day similar to yesterday ahead for today, but the models suggest an uptick in activity tomorrow. When the thunderheads are more isolated, they are more photogenic I would have to say, especially against the backdrop of the darker blue skies we have now. And with no haze around, something that often can accompany higher humidities such as we have had over the past week or two, our cloudscapes are especially pretty I think.

The End.

A photogenic day, lots of action around, but not much rain here (0.01 inches)

Great rainshowers pummeled a few nearby areas yesterday; Horseshoe Bend just NE of Saddlebrooke, got 0.75 inches yesterday with another little pulse of water coming down the CDO later. But once again Nature bobbed a rainy apple in front of us, only to jerk it away, to mix metaphors royally. BTW, has there been a baby yet?

I wonder, too, if you saw in yesterday’s sad weather “play”, the colliding outflows NE of Saddlebrooke? Or the the ideal, dark, expansive, flat cloud base indicating a great updraft was feeding the rain shafts just to the north of us, ones that were propagating this way, riding the rain-cooled outflow racing toward Sutherland Heights, that wind shoving the air up as it pushed S, forming new clouds over it?

All this looked so promising to the non-cynical observer. As a meteorologist I was, of course, videoing these events to the north LONG before they happened since we often see this sequence develop to the north of us. But after you experience so many disappointments, as we have here in SH, you begin to expect bad no matter how promising they look at first. Its kind of like being a Cubs fan. You KNOW nothing good is going to come of the season. So that’s where I am now, pretty much like a hopeless Cubs (or a Seattle Mariners) fan.

Have, of course, in five summers, seen this happen before, that is, “The Great Dissipation”, when rain is but yards away, moving down from the N and then doesn’t make it. You probably have, too.

Part of the reason, maybe a large part, is that the wind rushing south from areas north of Saddlebrooke, and especially out of the Charoleau Gap, is going downhill. This means that the upward shove out of the rain shaft is being compromised by downslope motion at the ground. Often, in spite of this downslope motion at the ground, the upward shove is still enough to keep a respectable cloud base going, feeding more precip into the rain shafts that develop above. So, while there have been other situations where strength of the “incoming” is weakened, there was still an upward shove strong enough that we still get drenched.

But not yesterday.

The cloud bottoms/updrafts, necessary for new rain to form and reach here, broke up just as they arrived over Sutherland Heights, with one last gasp rain streamer, the end product of the last decent cloud base/updraft, landing only a mile or less away to the east before giving out completely. Man, that was tough to see.

Here’s a photo diary for yesterday, which, BTW, was one of the most photogenic summer days ever IMO (took around 300 shots (!), though part of that excess was because my camera malfunctioning and had to repeat many):

5:24 AM. Cumulus turret beyond the horizon casts a shadow on Cirrus clouds. Very pretty and dramatic. — 5:24 AM. Cumulus turret beyond the horizon casts a shadow on Cirrus clouds as the sun comes up behind it. Very pretty..

8:34 AM. Now here's a great sign, a fingerling shooting up from a Cumulus forming on the Catalinas this early! — 8:34 AM. Now here’s a great sign, a fingerling Cumulus shooting up from the Catalinas this early!

9:51 AM. Clouds continue to be quite aroused over the Catalinas! — 9:51 AM. Clouds continue to be quite aroused over the Catalinas, nearly reaching the glaciation level already! I was quite excited myself and took a lot of photos of these.

10:12 AM. Rain! (from a Cumulonimbus capillatus--looks fibrous in its upper portions due to ice crystals and snowflakes — 10:12 AM. Rain! (from a Cumulonimbus capillatus–looks fibrous in its upper portions due to ice crystals and snowflakes

11:12 AM. Within an hour, Lemmon was rumbling, as was this giant off to the N of Saddlebrooke.

11:26 AM. The unusual scene of two outflow winds colliding, just behind the dark base in the foreground. Things were looking so great because you knew there would be an out rush of wind at us, maybe maintaining that big dark base that’s necesssary to keep the rainshafts going its the bottom of the chimney feeding the Cumulonimbus turrets, getting them up there where they cold enough to form new rain/hail/graupel. Its only a few miles away, too!

11:39 AM. Learning module. RIght here you begin to suspect something's wrong, base looking a bit disorganized, not as large and flat, though still has a strong upshoot on the right side — 11:39 AM. Learning module. Here’s where your hope for a great rain should begin to fade, a wave of sadness washing over you. RIght here you begin to suspect something’s wrong, that big fat dark base looking a bit disorganized, not as large and flat, though still has a strong upshoot on the right side. Maybe the disintegration of the base will continue; once started it always does.

11:49 AM. This is the trash base that made it over the house. Put on "The Who", "Won't get fooled again." New base same as the old base. Won't get fooled again." — 11:49 AM. This is the trash base that made it over the house. Going to put on “The Who” now; you remember them: “Won’t get fooled again. New base same as the old base. Won’t get fooled again.” One of the great weather songs of all time.

Dong, twelve noon. That base at 11:39 AM above had enough upward zoom to produce this narrow rain streamer as the base died. If you were out, there was a very close lightning strike at this time in Sutherland Heights. — Dong, twelve noon. That diminishing base at 11:39 AM above had enough upward zoom in it to produce this narrow rain streamer as the base disappeared, got rained out. If you were out, there was a very close lightning strike at this time in Sutherland Heights.

4:24 PM. But the day wasn't over yet was it? BY late afternoon, new Cumulonimbus clouds had arisen, now drifting from the west that produced this unusual scene of spaced rainshafts. — 4:24 PM. But the day wasn’t over yet was it? BY late afternoon, new Cumulonimbus clouds had arisen, now drifting from the west that produced this unusual scene of spaced rainshafts.

7:31 PM. The day ended with another one of our multi-colored sunsets, the ones we love so much in the summer.

Now to get through the dry, HOT few days ahead…. Will be tough.

However, take a look at this radar-derived precip map for the US for just the past 7 days, and just look at how the droughty areas of the SW and Plains States have been hit with tremendous rains during this period. So great to see so much, especially here in AZ and NM. From WSI:

Total precipitation as inferred by radar for the seven days ending today. Fantastic!

The End

Sunset color today?

First, yesterday’s interesting clouds:

Earlier Today

You will soon notice a nice sunrise with a sky full of clouds, Cirrus-ee ones, Altostratus, some Altocumulus tending toward lenticulars (red denotes cloud forms added after the sun came up and I saw them.)

I am late today, not because I overslept some, but also because I wanted to post a great sunrise photo for you.

You know, its all about YOU again, isn’t it? Maybe you should step back and think about that for a second…ask yourself just where your life is going? Thanks in advance for doing that!

Here is this morning’s nice sunrise, Altostratus clouds with virga:

When you see this morning’s clouds, and the great sunrise, no doubt you will be thinking along the lines of a great sunset today as well.

But you’d be so WRONG!

Using a technique developed here, you can foretell where the back side of today’s band of high and, later, middle clouds will be quite accurately. You won’t need the Titan supercomputer to do it, though it would be nice if you had one. Will reprise that methodology for you:

1. First go to, say, a web site having infrared image loops, such as here in purple and gold Huskyland up there in the wet Pac NW

2. Select a loop that you like that shows the clouds to the west of us, such as the one I have selected for you.

3. Stop the loop at a time period not less than 4 h from the current time (probably best not to exceed 12 h).

4. Get out a Hollerith card (computer punch card), and carefully mark the position of the backside of the cloud band of interest that is upwind of your location, pressing the card hard against your computer montior.

5. Proceed in stepwise fashion to the current time in that satellite loop and mark on the same punch card, the location of the backside of the cloud band. You will now have two “tick” marks denoting the movement of the backside of the clouds over the time period you chose.

6. Now, move the first “tick” mark to the current backside, carefully moving the card along the direction of movement of the band, and pressing it against the computer monitor.

7. The second tick mark you made will now be ahead of the band at a future position and time, based on the time increment you have used.

8. Determine from that future position whether local sunset will occur to the west of the backside while it is still OVERHEAD. If the answer is “yes”, then a tremendous, memorable sunset is likely.

Illustrative example, using an 11 h time increment to enhance difficulty:

Satellite image 1

6 PM yesterday. Cloud band backside is over central California.

Satellite image 2

6 AM this morning. Backside approaching Colo River Valley. But is it moving slow enough to be overhead at 5-6 PM? — 6 AM this morning. Backside approaching Colo River Valley. But is it moving slow enough to be overhead at 5-6 PM with the big clearing to the west?

Preparation of the Hollerith card; no “hanging chads” here–some people disperse incense now:

Results

The back edge of our cloud band is too far east for a good sunset tonight. New clouds would have to form on the backside for a good sunset. Yes, that COULD happen, and it sometimes does in certain situations, but it probably won’t today. Be thankful for a nice sunrise.

The weather ahead? The cold slam?

Well, every weather presenter is on top of that big time, and so why blather about it here? Of course, tomorrow….”tomorrow is another day” to quote a quote. And after I see how this mostly clear sky sunset prediction turns out.

Looking for rain in all the wrong places…

Like in our best USA! models.

Pretty upset this early AM to find that the US’s Weather Forecasting and Research-Global Forecast System (WRF-GFS) model run, a model costing millions of dollars BTW, ingested last night’s 5 PM AST global data, BUT then threw up an identical twin that matched the Canadian Enviro Can model output that came out 24 h earlier! It was unbelievable to see this, humiliating really, something akin to a reverse nose job.

Recall that the USA! model had rain here and a big cold trough right over Catalina on the evening of December 9th into Monday morning the 10th. The Canadian model had that SAME trough over Cornhusky Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska!

The Canadian model was right.

Here’s are the two forecast maps made within 24 h and each for for the SAME DAY AND TIME by our own WRF-GOOFUS model: on the left, the rainful run from the previous day that made me so happy (until I had some “spaghetti” and saw it was likely a bogus output). The panel on the right is the sickening output from last night, both rendered by IPS.

annotated valid for december 10th 5 am 2012120400_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_156-1 — Valid for Monday, December 10th at 5 AM AST. Sweet!

annotated valid 12z dec 10 2012120500_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_132 — From last night, also valid at 5 AM AST, Monday, December 10th. Horrible, unbelievable amount of change between the two. Makes you feel sad for weathermen and weatherwomen that have to deal with these things.

I really wanted Enviro Can to eat some crow with their forecast of MY trough over Nebraska. But no! “Bow down to Canada”, as heard here if you substitute in your mind the word, “Canada” for “Washington.” Hey, its got the lyrics at this site and so it should be pretty easy for you to sing along with it.

BTW, the Canadians (Enviro Can) don’t feel they have to show “spaghetti” plots to reveal how bad their numerical forecasts might be because they are always so right (in the 144 h time frame available from Enviro Can). “Don’t need no spaghetti.”

Can we say the same?

Doesn’t seem like it. We need “spaghetti” so we can see how bad our model forecasts might be. Calling Obama now…. not “happy with crappy”, to quote some overseas manufacturer’s creed, here. OK, our models aren’t exactly “crappy” but they aren’t as good as they should be.

Too, I have to deal with Canadian relatives that will be gloating today, I am sure. Maybe this spectacular example of “model divergence”, as we would call it, Canadian vs. US, is the talk of Canada today, and that’s what makes today’s wrf-goofus output sting so much.

I really want to call President Obama on this and tell him about it; I know he would add it to his list of things that need to be fixed in our country. Even if you have only a tinge of jingoism, you HAVE to be upset that the Canadians in their big little country, have a better weather forecasting model than we do! I think I am going to have to lie down for awhile…calm down.

So, what is ahead in our weather?

Of course, we have to look at the Canadian model first to get the most reliable one to see if they have anything for us… (hahahahah, sort of). I always do look at that one first, but I don’t brag about it. The summary of last night’s Enviro Can run, out to 144 h: they got nothin’ for us, just some cooler air over time. Cirrus clouds will be floating by from time to time as they do on most days. Did you know that Cirrus is a precipitating cloud? Yep, little ice crystals are always settling out leaving those pretty trails. Mt. Everest would know this…

Yesterday’s Cirrus clouds, sunrise to sunset

Feel another song coming on…. key lyric, “I don’t remember getting older…”

Hope you had some good log entries describing the varieties and species of Cirrus… If you did, you’ll be getting closer to getting that Cloud Maven Junior Tee.

Every which way but here

Of course, alluding today in the title to the great western movie with John Wayne…

Every which way you looked yesterday afternoon, there was a great rainshaft. 1.85 inches fell in one hour at Picture Rocks Community Center yesterday afternoon, 2.01 inches total. Several stations around the county had another 1-2 inches yesterday. You can see the Pima County rain lineup here. Seems the great amount in the Catalinas was about half an inch in a gage at Samaniego Peak. Probably twice that between gages up there in the hot spots, where the best columns of rain fell. Also, it would be good to examine our U of A rainfall network today, too, for some jumbo totals. Values are being added during the morning hours as a rule.

Catalina? Well, a measly 0.05 inches fell here after 7 AM until this morning from side-swiping Cumulonimbus clouds, though Sutherland Heights did receive a more respectable 0.28 inches–just measured it. . So, if you were outside yesterday, you saw heavy shafts of rain all around, but none developed over us (the best kind), or moved in here.

But, then, 1.85 inches in an hour, probably most in a shorter time than that, might be “counter-productive”; might make Catalina into a news story, and not a good one… So, I’d better watch what I wish for.

Here are some views of yesterday’s “clouds and columns” of rain yesterday. And, as has been the case, the day started with heavy layer clouds, Stratocumulus and Altocumulus, and a nice, but very brief sunrise “bloom” shown below:

Once these clouds thinned by late morning, Cumulus began to surge upward over the Catalina’s, and reflected an usually strong east-southeast wind just above mountain top levels by trailing over Catalina from Mt. Lemmón. These reached the ice-forming level (read, began to produce rain at the ground) in a series of showers and thunderstorms by 11:30 AM (2nd photo).

Looked, too, like another tube (funnel cloud) at 3:48 PM yesterday off in the direction of Marana, but I’ve posted so many of late I thought I would just post it at the bottom of these more interesting photos.

Moisture continues to revolve into Arizona from the southeast and so it would appear a similar day is in store for us. Oh, goody.

Grazed and confused

Man, its tough to get rain here sometimes. Not sure why we seem to be in a death zone for Cumulonimbus clouds lately. Yesterday, a really great shower plodded toward Catalina and only to fade on the east side, and propagate off to the west and over the Tortolita Mountains (veered down the sideline, in football speak). I guess we should feel lucky that, due to the lightly raining “stratiform” (blanket cloud) residual cloud from this strong storm, we got 0.02 inches here last evening. Coulda been worse, of course. (BTW, if you’re an old rocker and want to hear, “Dazed and Confused”, to which I allude to in the title, go here.)

Here’s the photo record in thumbnails, which I thought was interesting enough because this moderate-sized shower really exploded into something large as it approached from near the Tucson Mountains. You can also go here to get the full version as seen from the top of the Wildcat Dept of Atmos. Meteoro.

4:54 PM. Nice and cute; its even heading this way, but way too far away to make it, given the short lifetimes of small Cumulonimbus clouds.	5:04 PM. Huh? Its STILL coming, and seems to be developing a new “crop”; those flanking, non-raining clouds that might grow to take the place of the raining one. Oh, it’ll never make it. Too small.	5:36 PM. Its not small anymore! Holy Smokes! And look at those “fountain-of-youth-required-for-new-life-new dump for Cumulonimbus flanking clouds! This could be great dump here!
6:04 PM. Here, the side of the storm approaching Catalina. The flanking lower cloud deck has disappearing and only light to moderate rain is upwind now. Without re-inforcements from below, that approaching rain will only get lighter and lighter as it approaches. Dang.	6:11 PM. Awesome, but somehow “wrong”, falling over there. An almost black flanking cloud, piled high on top, was forced there by the outflow winds from the original storm as it dropped its first heavy load in Oro Valley. Because those winds aren’t symmetrical blowing out from the rainshaft, it happened that the strongest winds and uplift over them went over there. Dang#2	7:07 PM. Its raining lightly here now, coded “R–” or “RW–” in your log book. The cloud would be termed, Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus (namely, debris cloud, trash clouds from our glorious Cbs).

To finish off with something more positive, this sunrise photo taken just now while a few drops of rain were falling.

The Weather Ahead.

Drying trend starts on Wednesday, the 25th and lasts a couple of days. The Enviro Canada model saw this coming some days ago, the US WRF-GFS not so much, but they agree now.

The clouds and Cbs return on the 29th with July finishing strong in activity.

In the meantime, another great day ahead, one with large Cumulonimbus clouds and scenes like the past few days are on tap.

More, later.

It is later.

Here is the U of A model output for today, hour by hour. Lots of activity seen for us in Catland beginning after 12 Noon with numerous showers developing by then, but nothing for tomorrow and the next day.

Maybe you should call in sick today, and enjoy the sky all day.

The End.

Early to rise

These small fluffs of Cumulus clouds above Ms. Mt. Sara Lemmon, were the first indications that something good, and very different from the previous two days was going to happen yesterday. These clouds appeared no less than 4 h earlier in the day (between 9 and 10 AM yesterday) than those first Cumulus on top of the Catalinas on the previous two days.

The correct emotional response due to this early rising for cloud maven juniors and doscents out there should have been excitement and anticipation; that some big boys with long names (Cumulonimbus capillatus incus) were likely going to be around later in the afternoon and evening hours. No weather maps needed! See AZ Star for confirmation.

While we didn’t get a big dump right here in Catalina, we did at least get a dust-coagulating 0.02 inches. Here are the totals ending at 24 h from around the region from the Pima County Alert gages. The most hereabouts was at the Santa Cruz River at Ina Road with 0.59 inches, with that storm shown in the photo at 4:25 PM below.

Today, with dewpoints once again being in the upper 50s, it should be the case that we see these early precursor clouds on top of Mt. Lemmon, and they will once again lead to the conclusion of a satisfying day of thunder and intense rainshafts, driven by 100 F plus temperatures. It peaked at 106 F here yesterday in Catalina, and it was fairly cloudy when that temperature was recorded! Pretty remarkable.

Here’s your NWS computer generated forecast for Catalina, foretelling similar temperatures for today.

Here are some later shots of those great clouds, and if you want the whole nine yards, go to the U of A time lapse movie here. There’s a lot of rotation at the bottom of some clouds 1:03 before the movie finishes, and an indication of a rope-like funnel cloud, not too surprising given the instability of yesterday.

DSCN1915 — 4:23 PM. Eventually of those Cumulus congestus clouds reached ice-forming heights and produced our little 2 hundredths shower. By the time it reached Saddlebrooke, it had a visible shaft.

DSCN1919 — 4:25 PM: While our little shower passed by, Marana and vicinity were getting the real thing in dumps of more than half an inch.

DSCN1924 — 5:18 PM. Ditto to the NW where heavy rainshafts in this complex created a “haboob” that affected Casa Grande.

Maybe today, with plenty of clouds and heat, it will be our day to get the big dump and wash the dust off our desert plants.

The End.

Pretty skies, but no castellanus (again)

Apparently the castellanus formations went over during the nighttime hours when we couldn’t see them…

But it was a fabulous day again of interesting high and middle cloud flecks anyway. Below, a reprise of yesterday’s clouds starting with that delicate patch of Cirrus passing over the Catalina Mountains with its tiny fibers of Cirrus uncinus embedded in it. I have also included two sinister crossing contrails. Who knows what evil lurks there? Perhaps they’re marking a target of some kind, or filling out a questionnaire with crosses instead of check marks. Oh, well.

Later, as the sheet clouds of various Cirrus, Cirrostratus, and even Altostratus with virga cleared off, we got into some scattered lenticulars, some of to the distant north, and with our usual friend downwind of the Catalinas, shown in the last two shots. It was able to hang on for several hours, right past sunset.

Again, for the whole day’s cloud excitement, a great place to go is to our very own U of AZ Wildcat time lapse movie. In the late afternoon of this movie, you can see some great Altocumulus lenticularis clouds hovering over and downwind of the Catalina Mountains, occasionally shooting upwind as the air moistens in the humped up airflow, and you can get a sense of how little the air is pushed up in lenticular clouds from this movie.

(Once again the caption function has quit in WP before I got to some of these. My apologies.)

The weather ahead

Gee, “dusty cold snap” is beginning to look more like “muddy waters” as the later model runs dip the jet stream farther and farther south over us on the 14th and 15th. Check this forecast of the precip hereabouts from the U of WA’s WRF-GFS model run from last night, showing a bit of rain HERE Saturday morning (colored areas of map). Sure hope so. Terribly cold air with this, too, for mid-April. Likely some low temperature records will be set in the State somewhere for this time of year with this.

The End.

The lenticular that came for breakfast and stayed for dinner

Some of you already know that there is a favored position for a lenticular cloud downwind from the Santa Catalina Mountains. Yesterday, a little fluff of Altocumulus lenticularis kept reappearing all day! It didn’t have the “classic” look of a lenticularis early on, but that’s what it was, hovering over the same spot, changing size some, disappearing then reforming over the same spot. That rough bottom early on suggests turbulence. You don’t want to fly there. Often, flying IN lenticular clouds is, as the smoothness suggests, completely lacking in turbulence. Its when you come out the downwind end of those clouds that you can experience some nauseating bumps.

Why was the lenticular cloud there all day?

Because there is a standing wave, or hump in the airflow downstream of the mountain that raises a moist layer to its saturation level where a cloud must appear, and not much changed in wind direction and moisture all day up there. The morning and evening sounding for Tucson were almost the same. Also, while that lenticular cloud was nearly always there, it was often “buried”; obscured inside that sometimes thick layer of Altostratus with its virga that moved in during the afternoon hours.

Some photos. (BTW, since I started adding captions, WYSIWYG has gone bonkers in the Word Press edit page. So excuse the strange organization and text in odd places–still learning here.)

Below, photos of some of the other clouds of yesterday. I have to say if there was a disappointment, it was that there wasn’t as much Altocumulus as I thought, and virga trails were not as long as I expected, either. They were barely hanging down from that Altostratus layer, an indicating of smallish snowflakes in the Altostratus layer as well as very dry air below it.

DSCN1173 — "Altostratus over horse arena".

Lastly, a sunset shot, indicating the back edge of these high and middle cloud layers was over the horizon to the west.