Category: The weather ahead

Looking for rain in all the wrong places…like here in Catalina

Another dry day yesterday, a tough one to take, since it appeared that rain hereabouts was a virtual certainty. All the model runs I saw from the U of AZ had good rains at times on the Catalinas yesterday afternoon and into the evening, as they do again for today.  Here’s one U of A model output for 2 PM yesterday (WRF Surface (Flash Animation) as an example.

So, when the dense Altocumulus clouds with their spotty sprinkles and light showers finally thinned and the sun burst forth in the afternoon, up went the Cumulonimbus clouds within the hour off in the distance from Catalina to the NE and SE.  It was going to be a great afternoon and evening I thought.  Tucson International AP reported lightning, thunder, off and on yesterday until after midnight, and even a few drops! Go here if you want to see all of last night’s action in the satellite and radar imagery from IPS Meteostar.

But none here.  Check the radar-derived precip from Intellicast.com.  You can see light rain was all around Catalina, dang.

Rainfall for the 24 h period ending at 5 AM AST today.

Cumulus started to form above Ms. Lemmon, and it seemed one of those was bound to explode upward as well.  While a brief sprinkle/virga fell out of one of those clouds at one point when it reached the “Cumulonimbus mediocris” stage, one  I made up, no full eruption occurred.  It was incredible that didn’t happen,  and so discouraging when you claim to be a Cloud-Maven, one who is supposed to know stuff.

The full discouraging day can be seen here, if you can stand to review it.  Still, these films are pretty interesting no matter what happens when clouds are present.

By evening all Catalina threats were seemingly gone, with no promising, massive clouds approaching from the northeast as they often do here at that time of day in the summer, rolling down out of the White Mountains, blackening the sky behind Charoleau Gap.  I missed a great sunset, too.

About today, in view of my poor track record, you might want to check out what Bob has to say.  He is one of the premiere scientists in convection, and lives right here in Tucson!  I think he has better graphics, too.  Also, here is the forecast from our NWS for Catalina, better get that in there for more balance, and maybe more accuracy!  They think the chance of measurable rain today in Catlina is but 10%.

However, being indefatigable, imperturbable, immutable, stubborn, I will press on with this forecast space:  _____________________ (write in your own forecast; it will likely be better than mine).  PS:  I think it will rain today.

BTW, even the coarse (as in grid spacing) Nvironment Canada model has a wet Arizona week ahead.  So, if not today, tomorrow!

Below, a photo reprise of yesterday.

6:59 AM. That promising morning sky. Light showers can be seen beyond the Tortolita Mountains.
1:25 PM. As the Altocumulus clouds faded, large Cumulonimbus anvils began appearing in the distance. This was going to be a great day.
1:41 PM. Mountainous Cumulonimbus tops rise up over the White Mountains to the NE!
1:26 PM. Cumulus are beginning to pile up over Ms. Lemmon! Surely there will be a giant Cb in an hour or two!
Later that day…. a painful sight.

 

Thundery trace; expect more than that today

(A note:  I am not getting WYSIWYG in what I am writing and what is posted in WP.  This is SO FRUSTRATING!  True I am a bit of an amateur at WP,  but those spaghetti plots that start the blog are SUPPOSED TO BE AT THE END OF IT as I see them in the draft, not absorbed in the “gallery” as well, dammitall!)  Computers and sofware are going to kill me, I am sure.  Where are my pills?!

Another promising start to a summer day today in Cat Land, as was yesterday since we have another cloud filled morning, some clouds having weak rainshafts indicating glaciation in the turrets sprouting from today’s layer.  And, there’s been a slight uptick in moisture over us, which raises the chances for measurable rain in Catalina today.  We also have support for this contention in the great U of A local model forecasts here, based on last night’s 11 PM AST run!  Yay!

Below, the photographic diary for yesterday starts begins with the Altocumulus opacus layer, with more than one layer up there.  Then, after the usual thinning-dissolution of that layer in the morning, the welcome sight of baby Cumulus beginning to appear over Mt. Lemmon by noon.  Those Cu steadily inflated reaching the “glaciation” level by 1:31 PM, a welcome sight after the “dud” Cumulus clouds of the prior two days.

After our first thundery spell, several new thunderstorms developed to the NW and E-SE over the Catalinas late in the afternoon,  but again, produced only another trace in a 20 minute or so of “very-light-rain-its-not drizzle” (one of the recurring themes here).

Since I can’t add more captions after the icy sprout, a WP problem, the times of the last few photos are, 1:53 PM, 2:08 PM, and finally, another great sunset sequence, some distant Cumulonimbus to the NW and another blazing sunset underlighting some virga from the remains of our last thunderstorm, these taken at 7:30 PM.

The Weather Ahead, way ahead:

We’re always on pins and needles this time of year, hoping for the best summer rains we can get, at least I am. The transformation of the desert into green again during the summer, after the spring greening,  is one of THE most rewarding aspects about living here in the summer, flying ant swarms aside.

Below are the “spaghetti” plots from NOAA that give us some clue about the reliability of the longer term model forecasts.  These are for the afternoon of July 19th, some ten days from now, and the afternoon of July 23rd.  Both plots below strongly indicate that the circulation pattern is ripe for good summer rains here between now and the 24th.  Doesn’t mean that every day will have rain, but it does mean recurring summer rains are likely with no long breaks.  That black region over the SW indicates a high probability (not certainty!) that our big fat SW summer anticyclone will be well positioned for good summer rains here.  In contrast, if that black area was OVER southern Arizona, or to the south, it would be a horribly, hot dry spell here that the models were foretelling.


Late bloomers and a dry day; but plentiful rains dead ahead

Here’s a brief reprise of yesterday in photos.  Expect a similar day today, late rising Cu over the Catalinas, isolated Cumulonimbus off on the horizon, probably NW-NE over the Mogollon Rim, and to the distant SE-S. None are expected to make it here.

12:33 PM. Small Cumulus finally begin appearing over Mt. Lemmon.
4:02 PM. Really haven’t done much, though some turrets poked up to the ice-forming level. Arrows show some ice falling out of an old, evaporating turret.
4:03 PM. Massive anvil appears over the horizon to the SE-S giving hope something could still happen.
5:52 PM. Getting closer!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7:16 PM. Rain complex stays to the S-SW, but provides a nice summer scene with occasional lightning.
7:37 PM. Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (one with an anvil) punctuates the sunset. Somebody got dumped on out there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don’t forget to go to the movies to re-live yesterday here, courtesy of our University of Arizona Wildcats.

The rain ahead

One of the great model forecasts of our time came out yesterday from the 12Z global data, and has been pretty much replicated in its results from the new data that came in yesterday at 00Z. These runs have had plentiful rains in SE AZ for just about every day after our little hot dry spell, and both of those US runs with all that rain ahead are supported by model runs by the Canadians using their brand of the Euro model. Here’s the US full run from last night, whilst the Canadian run can be found here.

What’s intriguing is that a tropical wave, sometimes called an “inverted trough” because its upside down compared to our winter troughs, is foretold to move into the State about the 4th of July.   An inverted trough would bring extra organization and clustering of Cumulonimbus complexes, which means bigger areas of rain, often accompanied by a large stratiform rain shield that produces hours of rain.  It is also true that these can be our most damaging storms.

OK, this big event is “out there”, and you know that this blog is going to jump on the wetter side of the model forecasts.  Still, its pretty darn exciting to think of days of scattered showers beginning in early July, and maybe a real drencher just ahead around th 4-5th.  The best part is that even if that doesn’t happen, we are embedded in a flow pattern that would keep up that a hopeful possibility of rain day after day, into mid-July.

 

 

 

Model trickeration, Dark Bluster, =s no rain!

You can see what didn’t happen here in the U of A time lapse movie.

I got pretty excited when the U of A Weather Department issued a special report yesterday morning on what the Beo Wolf cluster had come up with in terms of yesterday and today’s weather.  These kind of special, technical reports, ones that only I can read, not general people, except in the pictures and everybody can read those and can comprehend, are only issued during the best (worst storm) monsoon days.  So, it was VERY EXCITING for me to get in this special post in an e-mail.   The many model runs had some great thunderstorms and wind building up to the S and SE of us and roaring in across the Oro Valley-Catalina urban complex during the late afternoon and evening.  I was pumped.  SOMETHING was going to happen!

And, just as the models were thinking, “anvilation” (first photo) began to appear to the south through soiuthwest by late afternoon before the AZCats won the national NCAA Division I baseball title.  Sadly, that complex died out before getting here.

Then, over the Cat Mountains, things began to look more promising just before sunset (2nd shot).Cloud bases began looking more solid, not broken up into dark and light patches, and that solidity suggests an significant updraft over a wide area.  I thought, “Here it comes!”,  since those dark bases were moving off the Catalinas and toward us, possibly pushed by an outflow wind on the other side.  This kind of thing, as you know, happens all the time here.

But no, those bases fell apart, they were merely a phenomenon called “Dark Bluster” which nobody really understands, and the only thing that happened from those clouds was a light rainshower over by San Manuel I think, one that produced a weak rainbow (3rd shot).

Oh, well, at least the evening ended with a nice sunset and a national title.

Today?

Hit and miss showers/thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening hours again.  Nobody knows exactly where they will be so you’ll have to be watching.  Actually this is a pretty good deal for later June, often with no chances of rain at all.

Update at 9:17 AM:  Cumulus forming over the Catalinas!  This is about 4 h ahead of the past two days.  Is a darn good sign of more showers/thunderstorms today.

The End.

4:51 PM: Game about to start, complex of Cumulonimbus clouds stretches from S through SW of Catalina.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cumulonimbi sightings; can rain be far behind?

No.

Yesterday saw a gorgeous sight after our long cloudless spell; Cumulonimbus anvils approaching from the south-southeast in the later afternoon, our summer friends with their winds and rain squalls.  The bottom of those thunderheads disappeared before they arrived over Catalina, and were just anvils, that icy portion above 30,000 feet or so, but they harbinger a great rainfull day today as degree of moisture improves.  The dewpoint in Tucson was only 39 F yesterday at this time, and is now a robust 58 F!  Welcome water molecules!  This means that if you condensed all the water out of a cubic meter of air today you would get  about 8 grams while yesterday you would have only gotten about 4.5 grams, so almost a doubling of water content in the air swirling around us.

And with this, instead of having cloud bases at 14,000-15,000 feet above sea level (about 11- 12 KFT above us) as we did yesterday, they’ll be closer to 10-11 KFT above sea level, or 7-8 KFT above us (maybe even topping Ms. Lemmon).  This will mean that less of the precious rain falling out of those Cumulonimbus clouds today will evaporate before it reaches the ground.   And with that, some very dramatic skies later today.

Check the U of A local model here to see what the great “Beowulf Cluster” is thinking about rain today in AZ.  Looks good.  Note some favored areas just to the SW of us might get an inch of rain today! (But, don’t count on the EXACT placement of those strong rain areas; they’re often off by many miles.  Its just a good indicator of strong showers very near us today.)

The past two days have seen some rain fall in SE AZ, but the cloud bases were so high, not much reached the ground.  So, the chances of a significant rain here in Catalina this afternoon and evening are good, indeed.

Farther ahead…and remembering 1955.

The models are still making it look like a normal uptick in rain chances around the 4-5th of July, pretty usual for us here in Catalina, with a bit of a dry spell before that uptick in rain chances.

One interesting facet of the weather pattern these days is how a cold spring and summer in the Pacfic NW in 1955 translated into a bountiful summer rain season here.  This June will be one of the coldest/wettest ever in Washington State.  Many of you out there probably remember the great summer rains of 1955 and those string of hits by The Platters.  While weather never quite repeats itself, and there hasn’t been a group like The Platters back either,  its something to hope for, that is, that the cold in the NW, wet in AZ pattern will recur this summer.

Lots of complainers now in the Pac NW these days with the continuing rains and cool weather there as the longest day of the year has passed, the days beginning to shorten, with no sign of summer yet.

Here are a few shots of those approaching Cumulonimbus clouds from yesterday:

First Cumulus over Ms. Lemmon about 1 PM AST.
Just after 3 PM, first Cumulonimbus sighting, and its moving this way!
5:22 PM: Cumulonimbus complex moving this way, but looking like too much anvil cloud, not enough connecting clouds.
6:24 PM: Its gone, faded away as the afternoon heating faded and all the lower Cumulus were gone. Just an icy mass drifting toward us.
7:36 PM: a nice ice cloud sunset, but no chance of rain.

Our Catalina summer rains and when they come

Below is an updated chart showing the frequency of rain in Catalina from June 1st through September 30th.  These data are mostly the courtesy of Our Garden here in Catalina on Stallion Place, supplemented in the past few years by obs here on Wilds Road.  Thought you’d like to see this to get your day started thinking about rain. Its pretty self-explanatory, which saves me a lot of work.

 

For really pretty charts of temperatures and rain frequencies, go here to WeatherSpark, a very nice site.  No stations at our elevation and near us are available in their station list for Arizona, however.  We are, as you know,  very much affected by our higher elevation than those longterm stations around us like Tucson (rain increases in Arizona mainly with elevation) and because of our nearness to the Catalina Mountains which are a spawning ground for the summer showers that often affect us.

 The weather ahead

Models are still showing rain creeping into SE AZ tomorrow.  If nothing else, we should see some Cumulonimbus tops off to the SE by late afternoon or evening.

Here, from the U of WA, valid for tomorrow evening at 8 PM AST.  Note lightly colored regions in SE AZ:

Looking WAY out ahead, the NOAA spaghetti factory has turned out plots that make it seem like the summer rain season will get started for real (steadily) on July 4-5th, as suggested by the rain frequency chart above. Here what came out for 5 PM AST, July 5th, some 14 days from now that makes that seem likely.

Why?

Note that dark region to the north of Arizona, that region mostly located in Utah and Colorado.  This spaghetti plot/ensemble runs of the model after introducing slight errors or changes in “initial conditions” those at the very start of the model run.  That dark region represents a pretty strong signal in the data that our big fat anticyclone (at 500 millibars, around 20,000 feet here in the summertime) will be located in a favorable position for good rains here in southern Arizona.  The red lines are those lines that pretty much represent the boundaries of that high, and you can see that they are located to the south of us, as well as to the north.  In the summer, you want to be in a LOT of red lines to the south of the high, representing in this case, nice easterly flow with a lot of humidity in it across northern Mexico.

Looking forward to seeing some real rain, and how this plays out.

The End


An extraordinary June 16th

Not only did Tucson set a daily record for rain on June 16th with 0.29 inches, breaking the old record of 0.20 inches that fell in 1918 (!), but here in Catalina, the 0.11 inches was the first measurable rain on June 16th in the 35-year combined record maintained at Our Garden, and then here for the past few years.

It was only the second day with measurable rain in Catalina since mid-April, and that prior rain was only a paltry 0.01 inches that fell in mid-May.

Regional rainfall totals for yesterday’s magnificent day can be found here, courtesy of the Pima County Flood Control District.  Two sites in the Catalina Mountains got hit hard, with 0.94 inches at Pig Spring, and a whopping 1.54 inches at CDO at Coronado Camp.  Those two gages are close to one another near the top of the CDO watershed.  Here is a map having those locations.  You can also get 24 h rain totals, ending at 7 AM today, from the U of A network here.

The best part, though, may have been those desert aromas that spring out of the desert when it rains,  and that cool air that rushed around Catalina yesterday afternoon and evening.  Makes you happy to be alive.  However, those two close lightning strikes were somewhat unsettling when you’re running around outside with a camera..

The drop in temperature as the rain hit was stupefying, about 35 degrees, from 100 F to 65 F!

Here are some photos, since I am still alive, the first ones of the Altocumulus perlucidus clouds that were mutating into Cirrus uncinus, a bit of an oddity.  The TUS sounding indicates that these droplet Altocumulus clouds were extremely cold, -30 C (-22 F).  And their presence was another live demonstration about how odd ice formation is in the atmosphere, still not completely understood.

By late morning the Cumulus were sprouting over the Catalinas, and the Altocumulus/Cirrus were gone. Those Cumulus clouds were a great sight since the models had very little rain indicated, and these were fattening up nicely suggesting those models might not have gotten “the scene” for yesterday right; there was more hope for rain after all.

Ice clouds on the left, droplet clouds on the right side.
Parhelia (sun dog) in the fallstreak of a former Altocumulus flake.
1:16 PM: Cumulus mediocris, center right, portends a good shower day.
2:11 PM. We are underway!
2:32 PM: Heavy rain falls on the upper CDO wash watershed.
3:01 PM: A strong shower complex appeared to the S toward TUS, giving hope of some rain here.
3:02 PM: Two very strong dust devils developed ahead of the outflow winds coming into Marana. They seemed odd since they were under the cloud cover and you start looking up to the base to see it there is a tube up there, and whether it is one of the dry tornado funnel cases.
3:09 PM. The thunderstorms over the Catalinas propagated to the west and here Saddlebrooke gets a dump.
7:33 PM: After our nice little rain, and as happens so often here in the summer rain season, we polish the day off with a spectacular sunset.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather ahead

The next chance for rain, the best one I could find, of course, is next Friday and Saturday afternoons. For Friday afternoon, this, from the U of WA’s model.  The lightly colored, filled in areas represent rain.

Looking for just Cumulus today, maybe a very isolated Cumulonimbus cloud.

Spectacular cloud day yesterday

Probably most people didn’t notice much yesterday, but at times, especially in the mid-afternoon it was spectacular up there due to delicate little patterns within Cirrus and Cirrocumulus clouds.  Some examples below.

1. Cirrostratus undulatus (Cs having waves in it).
2. Cirrocumulus.
3. Cirrocumulus (upper), Altocumulus floccus in distance.
4. Cirrocumulus.


 


5. The after life of those Cc and Ac clouds was Cirrus!
6. Oddity: extremely thin Cirrocumulus with holes.

The Tucson rawinsonde sounding indicated that these initially liquid droplet clouds (Cirrocumulus and Altocumulus) were at 26,000 feet (at the 330 millibar level) above Catalina at -30 C (-22 F) .  So, being that high, its no wonder those delicate Cirrocumulus clouds (Cc) became fuzzy masses of ice.   Long ago it was noticed that nature liked to produce a droplet cloud before it froze to become ice, even at these low temperatures.  Only around -35 to -40 C does ice form directly without going through the water phase, though liquid drops have been reported at -44 C!

To watch some of this transition happen before your very eyes, go to the University of AZ time-lapse and, about 1:02 from the finish (about 15:35 PM if you can read the time on this movie!) before the end of the movie, a really nice patch of Cc appears on the left, but by the time its about to exit the field of view, it has magically transformed into a thin patch of ice cloud.  This little patch of Cc in the movie is likely the same one I shot at 15:32 PM in photo number 4.

Just ahead, our upper air anticyclonic summer regime

And with that big mound of hot air over the Southwest US, the first onset of summer rains are now indicated in the models twelve days from now, around June 25th.   Too far in advance to bother showing, but am very hopeful of an earlier onset of the summer rain season, and we hope, a LONG, juicy one!

In the meantime, we will be in a trough for a few days, but, as tantalizing as that is, the models still see insufficient moisture for rain in AZ when the trough peaks over us this weekend.  However, rain is shown in Sonora near the AZ border this weekend so its not impossible that a few Cumulus might get overly enthusiastic and bust those model predictions of complete dryness this weekend in the mountains.  If rain did unexpectedly develop over the weekend from our little trough, it would probably fall from very high-based Cumulonimbus clouds producing mostly virga.

The End.

Clouds!

 Something in the sky to look at, Cirrus!  And more!

Some Cirrus, Cirrocumulus, Altocumulus clouds from the tropics have floated over in time for a nice sunrise presentation.  Some of these clouds should be around all day.  From this morning:

Also, let me reprise our June rain frequency chart for Catalina.  “Upon further review”, I have altered some text box wording to reflect a more accurate picture.  In reviewing some Tucson rain days in early June, where I had asserted that they were associated with “cold troughs”, I learned from an review of old weather maps that, while those rains were associated with troughs in the upper levels, they weren’t nearly so cold and strong as I had believed.  And those troughs had tapped the tropics for the rains that fell, and I had not indicated that.  It bugged me that I had got that wrong and so here is the corrected version of that chart.

Also with “only” 35 years of data here in Catalina, the “transition” zone below could be a statistical fluke.  In checking the Tucson 100 year plus record, there has been rain on days in this “transition” period, so its not impossible.  No rain is indicated during this period in the models right now, either, but there is a threat of rain developing.  More on that below.

Looking troughy enough for a rain threat in a few days

From our Canadian friends, this four panel prog chart for the afternoon of June 16th.  Note “trough” (upper left panel) extruding southward from Montana all the way down to Cabo San Lucas.  The models have had this figured out for many days, but the magnitude of the trough, the strength of the winds around it, and how much cool air it would contain way down here in the SW US,  has been subject to some wild variations.  Now it appears that the trough will be pretty weak, not much cold air in it, BUT, with the amplitude it has (how far south it extends) makes it possible to fetch us some tropical air.  None of the models have much in the way of moist air reaching us YET.  Take a look at the lower left panel for moisture at 700 millibars, or around 7,000 feet above the ground here in Catalina.  That blue shading shows that the moist plume drawn northward will mainly be in eastern NM and west TX, which will be good for them, but not us.  Still these kinds of things are dicey and one of those rare days with rain in mid-June is not out of the question.   What is life without hope?

The End.

 

 

 

Gone but still there

As expected, the odd pattern of just 24 h ago disappeared on the later model runs.

Is it really gone?

Nope.  Might pop back up on a subsequent run.

While our usual June inferno continues for a few more days (here’s the NWS forecast for Catalina), a cool trough of air is destined to come here 6 days from now and linger for a few.  Here’s the totality of evidence for that assertion, this plot valid 8 days from now, Friday afternoon, June 17th.  In case you have forgotten where Arizona is, I have repeated the map below this one with an arrow to help you out.

What do you see in the western US?

A lot of blue lines!  Ones that outline where a cool-cold trough of upper air will be.  Notice where the red lines are, those ones that outline where the southern periphery of the jet stream will be located, those being the outer boundary of the cool air trough.   They’re ALL WAY down in Baja, California!  This VIRTUALLY guarantees an a trough of cool-cold air along the West Coast in 8-10 days!  Along with that, the possibility that tropical air will move up from the south and get into Arizona.

Yesterday, the model believed a hurricane would form and move northward, its remnant dribbling into Cal and AZ.  The model (at 00 Z last night) saw tropical storms forming, but they remain far to the south of even Baja!

Well, that prediction I showed yesterday was SO STRANGE it certainly wasn’t going to happen nine days out into the future.  It was an outlier.

But, what is guaranteed from an inspection of the maps above, is a trough along the West Coast, and with that, comes the possibility of a rain here, not from the cool air part of the trough, that won’t happen, but rather from tropical air being whooshed up around the outer, warm boundary of the jet, marked by those red lines.  Right now, if you’re in the mountains of New Mexico, eastern plains of NM, and west Texas, you are just about guaranteed to get that tropical air and with it, showers and thunderstorms.

A climate note:  it has not rained in Catalina between June 9th and 19th here in Catalina for 35 years; NO measurable rain on those  days yet.  I’ve reprised the June daily rain frequency for our 35 years here:

What should you take from that?

There are likely climatological factors, one’s having to do with the march of the seasons, that work against even the presence of clouds!  Chances are it is what we would call in climate, a “singularity”, something akin to the January thaw in the northeast US.   Here its a June transition season from the time a cold trough can bring us a bit of rain, and the onset of the tropical air regime with its Cumulus and showers, jet streams not involved then.  (I’ve assumed that 35 years is enough to suggest a real feature, not a statistical fluke.)

So, with this big trough foretold to occur during our normal dry spell-transition period, you’d have to go against the chances of precip in a knee-jerk fashion.  We’d most likely end up BETWEEN where there are showers in cold Pacific air inside the trough, and dry regime outward from that zone, to a plume of tropical air just to the east of us over NM and TX.  Doesn’t mean rain can’t happen, but don’t bet on rain during this period through June 19th.

As a final comment, note the dark area in the central Pacific on these maps. That dark area repersents and extrusion of cold air well toward the tropics out there, also an unsual occurrence, and it is vital for us.  Note that even the blue lines, noting the core of the jet, has extruded southward out there.  That extrusion (my favorite word I think), in essence, creates a “bounce” in the latitude of the jet downstream, a southward extrusion along the West Coast.  The dark hole out there indicates that even 8-10 days out, the computer predictions are extremely confident that there will be that extrusion of cold air toward the equator out there, and that, in turn, strengthens the likelyhood of a  unusually strong  “bounce” trough along the West Coast 8-10 days out.

It will be fun watching this develop, since we’ll like get a much cooler day or two about that time.   But, it would be even better if the hurricane shows up again, and is steered thisaway as it was yesterday!

OK, enough, gotta go ride a horse