Category: The weather ahead

“Gutter ball”

Like an errant bowling ball (you remember bowling, don’t you?), the models are now pretty much in agreement that instead a “strike”, or at least a “spare”, or even a few “pins” being knocked down here in Catalina, by our approaching,  spinning “ball” of low pressure, it is now foreseen to end up as a “gutter ball”, bypassing the “lane” entirely and heading off to to coast of southern Mexico, the way the Canadian forecast model had been saying all along.  The US model had rain here for days on end, and it passed much closer to us.  But not now.   Below is the latest awful depiction from IPS Meteostar if you haven’t seen it yourself, one valid for Wednesday evening at 11 PM AST:

This is one of the worst forecast maps I have ever seen.  You can see where the low ends up, over Cabo!

I felt I had to prepare you mentally since no models I can find out there have any rain here with that system now.  And there is no rain seen in the next 15 days in the US WRF-GFS model, either!  So La Nina!

This is an odd configuration down there off Mexico, too.  This is normally the dry season in central and southern Mexico, so some Mazatlanians and Puerto Vallartans are going to get quite the winter surprise down there in a couple of days. It would be fun to go down there and see the surprise on the faces of vacationers and locals when this thing hits, to see, really how weather impacts people.  As a meteorologist, I feel much more important when important weather strikes.  People want to talk to you then and ask things; “How long is this going to last?”  “Have you ever seen this happen before?”  You’re really kind of the focal point of everyone’s life then.  You’ve probably noticed how excited TEEVEE weather presenters get when weather is the lead in the news, with that kind of haughty smile, or pretending to be sad, because a hurricane just hit, or six feet of snow fell somewhere.

But when important weather hits, they become the stars of the news programs, and maybe “stars” for a couple of days!  Yes, that’s what we weathermen and women like, odd weather, NOT normal weather where we have to think of “happy talk” and jokes and things to say to our fellow anchors instead of talking about something important. I have to say I am a part of that weather culture, too.  But with no storm at hand, I will not be so important to my friends today1.

Yesterday’s iridescent clouds, in case you missed them

Iridescent clouds are ones with especially tiny droplets that produce rainbow colors because the light is diffracted around the drops, and in doing so the white light from the sun is broken up into into its various wavelengths and colors that go with them (reddish, longer wavelengths, bluish, shorter wavelengths.  For a nice explanation and spectacular examples, go here.  Yesterday’s iridescence appeared yesterday in newly formed Cirrocumulus clouds.

 

 

 

Revealing personal note——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-1This whole “storm-now-missing-us” thing and loss of importance reminds, too, of John Denver, and when he died in that plane crash.  In those days before that happened, people used to say I looked like John Denver or thought I was John Denver, strangers even, and maybe I cultivated that look to make myself seem more important than I really was.   It was great having a stranger want to talk to me, often a woman as it turned out.  But then when John Denver died, I was sad, not for John or anything like that, though I did like some of his songs, but because I knew I pretty soon people would not ask me if I was John Denver and want my autograph, as happened in a Durango, Colorado, supermarket where I lived.  I was pretty bummed out back then, really, and that’s the way I feel about this “gutter ball” thing today.  Below, me as “John Denver.”  BTW, mom liked to be “Marilyn Monroe” so that she would seem more important, so this is kind of a family culture we Rangnos have to boost our self-esteems.  It really helps when you’re only a weatherman or other ordinary person to be somebody famous!  There was a guy just last night at the Fox Theatre here in Tucson pretending to be former Beatle, John Lennon!  I’ll bet he felt great because it was just like John Lennon actually being there!


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Catalina February rain climo

Its been February for awhile, Groundhog Day has passed without incident, and I suppose some climatological information might be of interest.  February has the highest average rainfall of any WINTER month, though it has come up short in promise so far with a big fat zero.  The models tell us that there is still a chance of rain this mid-week.  And, of course, as the prior rains have this winter, the coming chance of rain involves another one of those erratic cutoff lows, ones that the models have a hard time with, humans, too.  Here’s a preview from IPS Meteostar based on last evening’s data taken at 11 PM AST.  The chart below is valid for Wednesday evening at 11 PM, about the time rain chances are greatest.  As you can see, the strongest winds around this low (brownish regions) are on the west and southwest side, meaning that the low will move off to the southeast, farther away from us after Wednesday evening rather than come toward us.  “Dang!”  The Canadian model has this cut off low going off the south boundary of their forecast map, somewhere down toward the Equator, a complete miss that is just too horrible to contemplate.    In that event, maybe Acapulco will get some rain .

In the meantime, below is a chart of the days on which it has rained over the past 35 years here in Catalina.   Looks pretty noisy, no sign of a decrease in chances of rain through the whole month, no sign of any “singularities1“, short term climate deviations.  The decreasing chance of rain,  something we know is going to happen,  is not yet seen.  Hard to grasp how quickly that period where the rain chance drops off to almost zero is “bearing down” on us, as a fan of the Arizona Wildcats might put it.

The End

1A technical discussion of what climate “singularities” are and how to find SOME of them here: Mapes_climate harmonics_mapesetal

 

Rain “puddles” still on model highway

..like the continuing puddles of water we see on a hot day in the distance on the road.  So, in the model outputs of late, there have been a couple of rainy “puddles” for southern Arizona on the horizon, 10 days out and more.   Still too far out to be reliable; they might “dry up”, as our highway puddles appear to do.

But, I would have slept in if I hadn’t been “provoked” into a blogulent life this morning by CONTINUING RAIN in the model forecasts for southern AZ. Here are the key elements from last evening’s new results:  It still rains on February 12th, though the amounts have been scaled back; not the deluge suggested yesterday.  However, a soaking rain is now indicated for February 6th, a week earlier from an entirely different system (!), previously shown as a near miss or a mere wisp of rain.

Its all good, because a pattern change is taking place, and while the details and timing of rain will be erratic for awhile, its likely that the pattern change to one that provides rain here is more likely, not “in the bag”, of course, by any means.

What would be great about a February wet spell is not only the effect it will have on our spring growth and sustaining the road to a good wildflower bloom, but also just to see decent rain in the heart of the La Nina rain deflector period.   As you likely know, the power of a La Nina to deflect storms from the Southwest is greatest in late winter and spring.   Rooting for rain now into spring is definitely like rooting for a 20 point underdog in fubball.

Here are some images from last night’s model output, rendered by IPS Meteostar, my favorite for these.  The first for Monday, February 6th, “bulls eye”, and the second for the February 12th storm.  Contrast the flow shown on the jet stream maps (panels 3 and 4) with what we have today (last panel) to see why we weather folk call it a pattern change.  Look where the jet stream crosses the coast these days and where it is on the rainy forecast days ahead.

As you can see, by the 12th, Cal will also feel the impact of another round of furious weather after the January lashings that brought 10-20 inches of rain to extreme northern portions of the State and in southern Oregon.  The largest total I have found from the later January deluges was….33.56 inches in just NINE days at Red M0und, Oregon, just north of Brookings!  Time to start thinking about another trip to Shelter Cove, CA, and the King Range.  Hmmm.  Just kidding!  I would not willingly miss a drop of rain that falls here, just too beautiful a site to see rain fall in the desert.  We love rain here!

The End.

Factoid:  If you are a snow birder from Prospect Creek, Alaska, about 180 miles north of Fairbanks, I am quite sure you are happy to be here and not there; the temperature yesterday morning at Prospect Creek was -77 F!  The US record low temperature is -80 F set at Prospect Creek in 1971.  Must be like living in liquid nitrogen there in the winter.

Rain at the end of the tunnel?

Finally, the dark tunnel of pleasant, dry weather may be coming to an end, I am happy to say.   The WRF-GOOFUS model longer range output has been showing RAIN in southern Arizona for two or three runs out around the 7th to 14th of February.  Of course, those who follow this blog know that RAIN predicted in southern Arizona that far away is like the square root of -1.  It doesn’t really exist; its imaginary.  Still, it COULD happen, and you get a little more confidence when it shows up in more than one model run.  The USA! WRF-GFS model is really very good out to about five-seven days, but gets “goofus” after that, you almost always can’t rely on what it says with rare exceptions.  But, that having been said, remember that our models are still a lot better than economic forecasting models.  Think of the unforeseen “black” stock market days that come up!  Q. E. D.   They don’t know what the HELL they are doing over there.  Just kidding.

Below, some happy thoughts should accrue from viewing the images below if not already in place due to coffee.   Think of flowers.  And, if you’re like me, you’re happier overall and feel better about yourself thinking about a future rain in a desert region.  Below, what the WRF-GOOFUS model thinks February 12th will look like, based on thinking done on last evening’s (5 PM AST) global data.  This is so good I have reproduced TWO renderings from IPS Meteostar for that day.   It can hardly get ‘”greener” (show more precip) in the entire Southwest than what this storm is supposed to do on February 12th, and we even see some dark “green” (heavier rain), turning into blue (even heavier rain) in southern Arizona in this sequence.  Streams would likely run in places in southern AZ with this overall scenario. Its a great thought!

BTW, the later model run, just six hours after this one (based on 11 PM AST data, but whose awake then to take good obs and there aren’t that many anyway?) took a lot of this rain away and so I didn’t want to show it because its who I am.  (hahahaha, sort of)

On a more mundane level, another fabulous AZ sunset last evening caused by…..what kind of clouds am I?  Moslty Altostratus (really thick all or mostly ice clouds) and Altocumulus (mostly droplet clouds far horizon and very thin).  See far below.

The End.


 

Pomp and circumstance, but only a hundredth

“Pomp”, in the form of some thunder and lightning, and a few hail stones between 10 and 10:30 PM AST; “circumstance” with a pretty strong trough going by.   But they only delivered a hundredth of an inch of rain at the ground here in Catalina.  I guess the bugs will be satisfied, but it was a tiny bit disappointing to me.  Was hoping for TWO hundredths.   The U of AZ computer model did a nice job foretelling a tenth or less of rain.  The most rain reported around here is 0.12 inches way up in the Catalina Mountains at CDO and Coronado Camp.

In case you missed it, here’s when and where the lightning occurred from Strikestar-Astrogenic systems.  The last panel, lower left, shows those surprise lightning strikes that occurred around 10:15 to 10:30 PM AST last night.   BTW, these folks have the best presentation of lightning occurrences that I have been able to find, one that includes non-ground strikes.

Now its sit and wait in the sun for maybe two weeks or more for precip. The closest thing to a storm here in the next FIFTEEN days that the models (courtesy of IPS Meteostar) are showing  is this very strong upper low and trough that, as shown below over the Four Corners area, passes by too far to the east of us on February 1st-2nd to be considered a threat.

This system been showing up on the models for days and days, sometimes as one that can bring rain  here, but it hasn’t been shown that way lately in the models.  The fact that it has been persistent as a feature that affects the Southwest is a good sign that something major will pass by us in early February, and at the least will bring quite a chill whether we get precip or not.

In the meantime, we will have to be content with a long, long stretch of a sunny weather malaise, where almost everyday is perfect for a winter day.

 

Clouds?

Here are some from yesterday, and again, a great, late-blooming sunset.  Almost gave up on it happening.  First, the nice strand of Cirrus yesterday morning that heralded the thicker layers behind it and shots of those multi-layered clouds consisting of Altocumulus, Altostratus (the smooth one), and then the sunset “bloom.”

The End.

“And I think its going to rain today”

Well, how can we forget that mournful Leonard Cohen song?  And the sweet rendition of that tune by Judy Collins?  It was played a lot in Seattle, of course, where I’m from.  But, it also looks like it might be apt for late today right here in Catalina.  Check out this “incoming” here from the U of AZ Weather Department’s model output here.  This loop of rain areas will show you how the precip creeps toward us during the day, eventually overrunning almost the whole State of AZ.  “Oh happy day”, to quote another song title.  Just hope we get more than the tenth of an inch the model projects, all of which falls overnight tonight after midnight.  (Hmmmm.  Seems a little slow to me.)

Here’s a loop of satellite imagery and the surface pressure maps for the past 24 h from the University of Washington.  The interesting thing about these maps, is how one hurricane-like center with lots of isobars off the Pacific NW coast crashes into British Columbia while a new low develops off the California coast and is now pummeling central and southern California while heading to the southeast and toward us.   Reminds me of someone getting a “spare” in bowling by knocking two widely separated pins to the left and right to get it.

Why would storms divide in their paths like that?  You have to look aloft at the steering by the jet stream.  Low centers separating like that always means there is a split, a dividing point in the flow.   Higher level pressure maps from the UW shows that.  Below is a 300 millibar  pressure map (about 9 km above sea level or around 30,000 feet), a level where the jet stream is just about the best developed.  Notice how part of the flow whirls around the big vortex in the northern Gulf of Alaska and toward BC, while a more powerful branch dips toward California.  Its that trough,  that bend in the winds just now off California, that will come barreling through here tonight bringing that surface low center now near SFO with it–well, what’s left of it after it gets wrecked by mountains.  The next chance for rain/snow is in early February.

 

Nice clouds again yesterday.   Here are a few shots, including another nice sunset.  The haze you saw was dust, leftover from the strong winds of the previous day in western AZ.  The first, Cirrus over dust.  The second, some Altocumulus with Cirrus, and finally, Altostratus with some  under lit Altocumulus in the distance.

 

 

 

 

 

Looking ahead to February…to keep rain in the Catalina future

Forgetting about that rain foretold in the models sometime in a January 21st-23rd window there for awhile,  there might be a big storm at the start of February!

Trying to distract you from that earlier though of rain in just a few days because now the models think the core of the jet stream and rain/precip with it will only affect the northern portions of the State of AZ.  The last few runs have been COMPLETELY dry here and so going into a funk.

But, “hay”, look below at this dreamy (read, probably “unreliable”) output for February 1st at 11 PM LST (whole sequence here, click on 06 Z run time)!

Oh, well, its the best I can do to talk about rain/snow in Catalina now.   Sometimes its tough being a precipomaniac in a desert.

Clouds?  With the jet streaming near us, but to the north, we should see lots of nice cirrus-ee sunsets and sunrises from time to time over the next few days.  That will help any funk.

The End.

 

 

A Stratocumulus Monday

Yesterday gave us “Catalonians” the perfect example of Stratocumulus clouds.   But why didn’t it rain from those dark clouds, save a few drops, maybe even a brief drizzle episode that mostly moved across Saddlebrooke around 9 AM?

Those Stratocumulus clouds were GENERALLY not cold enough at cloud top to have ice crystals form in them.   There were some very light showers, mostly east of us during the day, and THOSE clouds got cold enough at cloud top to have ice form in them.

How cold does a cloud top need to be in Arizona for ice to form in it?

Around 15 F (-10 C).

Here’s the TUS  5 AM AST sounding for yesterday from the Weather Cowboys at the University of Wyoming showing the tops are right around that (normal) ice-forming limit.  Where the lines split apart is close to where the cloud tops are, and the temperature lines slant downward to the left.

You may have also noticed that the clouds got markedly shallower here after about 3 PM, noticeable in the U of A movie after 3:30 PM AST.  That was also close to the time an upper level trough and the accompanying slight wind shift occurred.  To the rear of the trough, there is always a piston of downward moving, drier air that’s going to squash cloud tops.  By the evening TUS sounding, cloud tops were barely below freezing.

Some cloud shots from yesterday’s overcast:

Sharp-eye folks will detect a sprinkle over Charouleau Gap

The weather ahead

Still looking for rain here on the 22-23rd, HOWEVER, the last two model runs confined the rain to N of us! Not good.

Nor Cal rains/flooding episode begins overnight as a series of semi-tropical storms strike the coast.

Wish I could be there for surf and on the turf there, but I have my blog audience to think about. I don’t want to let both of them down by being gone for the 10 days of this great storm series, exploring the rain intensities in the coastal ranges of Cal.  Oh, well.

Still think total rains in the best coastal mountain spots over the next ten days will be 30 inches or more, actually not terribly unusual in the King Range and similarly exposed sites.

Twice as nice; 0.53 inches in Catalina (0.58 inches as of 6:39 AM AST)

What a superb rain that was last night.   It just kept coming until finally we piled up an astounding-to-me 0.53 inches by 4 AM this morning.  The regional rain reports from around Tucson can be found here.  As you will see, the upper regions of the Catalina Mountains got around an inch (1.22 inches at CDO wash at Coronado Camp now).  Mt. Lemmon probably got a little more, but the record says “0.00” due to snow at that elevation.  This is a substantial boost for our emerging spring desert vegetation after our four week drought.  This is so much better than that near rainless January of last year!  Looking at some of the statewide precip reports, it looks like the Catalina area and the Cat Mountains got more than anywhere else.  Lucky us.

If you would like to relive yesterday, at least in clouds, go here to the U of AZ time lapse.  One of the things you will see later in the day are Altocumulus lenticularis clouds over the Catalinas.  You will see their upwind edges spurt upwind (seem to go the “wrong way”, against the wind) as the lifted air got more moist, one of the tricks that these clouds can pull.  You will see quite a panoply of clouds in this movie, from Stratocumulus, Altocumulus, Altostratus (dead gray and smooth higher layer), Nimbostratus (when the rains come) along with some mammatus formations.  Hmmmph.   There’s that “m-word” again, the one I used so many times yesterday.  Wonder what’s going on?

“But wait, there’s more!”  

If you call now (well, actually if you continue reading) you’ll find that a few more hundredths of rain are possible this morning before about 8 AM AST, AND, (We interrupt this blog for an important message: “hey”, just started raining again now at 5:03 AM!  Yay!)

all of the model runs are indicating rain again on the 22-23rd timeframe; even the “pernicious” 00 Z run from the 5 PM AST global data.   (I have questioned that output of late, rationally or irrationally,  because it kept drying the State of Arizona out whilst the model runs before and after that time, foresaw precip in spades in the State.

Here is a sample of the IPS Meteostar renderings of what happens in our rain window of the 22-23rd according to our latest model run, one from 11 PM AST data.  Note green areas of precip in the 6 h ending at 5 AM AST, Jan 23rd.  This is pretty satisfying since another good rain will keep us on track for a great spring bloom.

On other fronts…

While I could go on to talk about all sorts of things due to the ambiguity of the subtitle phrasing above, I will actually only talk about weather fronts, not this or that. 

The coming floods in northern Cal-Oregon still on track.  Storms break through from the Pacific “under” the Bering Sea “blocking” high, one that diverts the potent Asian jet stream that comes into the Pacific into two branches, one of which is forced southeastward in the central Pacific where water temperatures are warm.  (Just heard some rain on the roof again.  What a nice sound that is!)  The other branch goes deep into the Arctic and merges with the southern branch in the eastern Pacific after it turns southward over AK.

Those warmer storms, heavy with semi-tropical rain clouds, race to the West Coast once the southern jet breaks through the weakening southern part of the blocking high.  And once that jet stream has broken through, its days before things change, so the duration of rain adds to the colossal totals certain to occur now. In a ten day span, beginning tomorrow, the peak totals in this event will likely exceed 30 inches of rain.

Here is the current weather map (5 AM AST today) from the University of Washington that illustrates the odd flow pattern developing now from the central Pacific to the western US.  The block  is developing from a ridge in the eastern Pacific now (evidenced by the lack of green contours in it) that extends from the tropics all the way to the Bering Sea!  It will fracture in its southern portion tomorrow.  It has overextended its “reach”,  in a manner of speaking, at this point, and will fail just like a dam break and all those clouds to the west of it will flood eastward.  Its a pretty exciting thing for us precipophiles.

 

 

Canadian behemoth

One particularly bruising storm, one the size of Asia practically, with “tentacles” from the Aleutian Islands to Minnesota, was shown to develop in this series of storms battering the West Coast in the European model run by Environment Canada based on last night’s data.

I show this output below because you RARELY see a low whose circulation is this big, at least one of the biggest I have ever seen, portrayed on a weather map (upper right panel).  The map below showing this colossal low is valid for the evening of Jan. 21st.  The entire West Coast would be battered by this bruiser.

The End.

 

 

Pretty and eerie skies yesterday; let the rain begin today

Here are some examples from yesterday’s pretty, then toward evening, eerie skies with sprinkles, the latter due to backlit Altostratus opacus mammatus, to go the whole nine yards, an icy cloud with downward hanging protuberances that resemble something.  I’ve reduced the size of that image accordingly.  Below, in sequence, 1) Cirrus, 2) Altocumulus, 3) the incoming bank of Altocumulus with Altostratus clouds on the horizon late yesterday afternoon, ones with virga and mammatus; 4) the mix of Altostratus with virga and mammatus with Altocumulus after it got here, and finally, 5) that eerie scene last evening of what I would surmise was a sunset colored layer of Cirrus above the Altostratus clouds with mammatus that gave the Altostratus an orangish tint.   I seem to be thinking a lot about mammatus formations today.   Hmmmmm.  Oh, well the CLOUDS were nice, and I guess you might say, our official cloud names a little suggestive.  For the full fascinating day, go here to our great U of A time lapse movie for yesterday.

All of these clouds are emanating out of and around a low that a week ago, in the models, was supposed to have already gone by.  Well, what’s left of it finally goes over us today, kicked out of place by a quite rudely interjecting jet around a cold trough in the NE Pacific and over the Pacific Northwest.

Here is a satellite loop from the University of Washington showing those clouds that went across yesterday and those similar versions that will be crossing our Catalina skies today, ones that are coming deep out of the tropics.  You’ll want to crank up the speed button to really see what’s going, at the upper left of this loop.  The mods have been seeing a bit more moisture with this upper level low  (doesn’t show up on the surface maps at all) as time has passed and so maybe we can wring as much as a quarter inch out of it.  Here’s what the U of A Beowulf Cluster has to say about the incoming rain amounts.  These amounts, up to an inch in the mountains, would be fantastic and very satisfying considering the long dry spell.  The best chance of rain is overnight, so we’ll have lots of pretty clouds, probably a lot like yesterday, during the day before the really thick stuff moves in.

 

The ominous aspect, though VERY exciting to us stormophiles, is, when you review that satellite loop from the Washington Huskies Weather Department, is the accumulation of clouds and storms in a long belt just north of the Hawaiian Islands.  Take a look!  In just a couple of days, those clouds and storms will begin streaming toward the West Coast like a dam breaking, impacting most heavily, northern California and Oregon with tremendous rains.  You will certainly read about those rains!  From experience, I can tell you that the most favorable mountain sites for rain will likely receive 20-30 inches of rain in just a few days as this pattern develops and matures with one strong low center after another racing across the lower latitudes of the Pacific under the soft underbelly of a blocking high in the Bering Sea.

Man, I want to be in the King Range/Shelter Cove area so bad!  Let’s see, fly to SFO now, rent four wheel drive vehicle for forest back roads in the King Range, bring rain gauge, sleeping bag, tent for camping out and listening to 1 inch per hour rain intensity on tent roof.   Hmmm…..  Its doable.  Maybe all of us should go there today, get set up, and then wait for those pounding rains with 50 mph plus winds.  That would be great!

And the ocean waves will be something to see, too, along the Oregon and northern California coasts, thundering surf really.    Been there, seen it.  And believe or not, there are surfers who come to the West Coast for just these situations, the long tropical fetch that generates huge waves.  And there is even a small cadre of folks who race to the coast just to see that thunderous surf.  All very exciting.  Well, kind of getting distracted here, and a little nostalgic.  Those big rollers would look something like this.

 Also, since I have doubtlessly piqued your curiosity about Shelter Cove and the King Range, below a shot of the King Range from Shelter Cove, a shot in the King Range, looking toward the highest peaks, and finally, an example of the people of Shelter Cove.

Now, where was I concerning Catalina?  Oh, yeah, mods have more rain ahead, though we’re only sideswiped by the powerful storms affecting Shelter Cove.  Best chance for the next rain is on the 21-22nd.

In sum, today’s focus, or more accurately, preoccupations?  Mammatus and Shelter Cove, CA.

The End.