Cloud-maven – Page 61 – About real clouds, weather, cloud seeding and science autobio life stories by WMO consolation prize-winning meteorologist, Art Rangno

A photogenic day, lots of action around, but not much rain here (0.01 inches)

Great rainshowers pummeled a few nearby areas yesterday; Horseshoe Bend just NE of Saddlebrooke, got 0.75 inches yesterday with another little pulse of water coming down the CDO later. But once again Nature bobbed a rainy apple in front of us, only to jerk it away, to mix metaphors royally. BTW, has there been a baby yet?

I wonder, too, if you saw in yesterday’s sad weather “play”, the colliding outflows NE of Saddlebrooke? Or the the ideal, dark, expansive, flat cloud base indicating a great updraft was feeding the rain shafts just to the north of us, ones that were propagating this way, riding the rain-cooled outflow racing toward Sutherland Heights, that wind shoving the air up as it pushed S, forming new clouds over it?

All this looked so promising to the non-cynical observer. As a meteorologist I was, of course, videoing these events to the north LONG before they happened since we often see this sequence develop to the north of us. But after you experience so many disappointments, as we have here in SH, you begin to expect bad no matter how promising they look at first. Its kind of like being a Cubs fan. You KNOW nothing good is going to come of the season. So that’s where I am now, pretty much like a hopeless Cubs (or a Seattle Mariners) fan.

Have, of course, in five summers, seen this happen before, that is, “The Great Dissipation”, when rain is but yards away, moving down from the N and then doesn’t make it. You probably have, too.

Part of the reason, maybe a large part, is that the wind rushing south from areas north of Saddlebrooke, and especially out of the Charoleau Gap, is going downhill. This means that the upward shove out of the rain shaft is being compromised by downslope motion at the ground. Often, in spite of this downslope motion at the ground, the upward shove is still enough to keep a respectable cloud base going, feeding more precip into the rain shafts that develop above. So, while there have been other situations where strength of the “incoming” is weakened, there was still an upward shove strong enough that we still get drenched.

But not yesterday.

The cloud bottoms/updrafts, necessary for new rain to form and reach here, broke up just as they arrived over Sutherland Heights, with one last gasp rain streamer, the end product of the last decent cloud base/updraft, landing only a mile or less away to the east before giving out completely. Man, that was tough to see.

Here’s a photo diary for yesterday, which, BTW, was one of the most photogenic summer days ever IMO (took around 300 shots (!), though part of that excess was because my camera malfunctioning and had to repeat many):

5:24 AM. Cumulus turret beyond the horizon casts a shadow on Cirrus clouds. Very pretty and dramatic. — 5:24 AM. Cumulus turret beyond the horizon casts a shadow on Cirrus clouds as the sun comes up behind it. Very pretty..

8:34 AM. Now here's a great sign, a fingerling shooting up from a Cumulus forming on the Catalinas this early! — 8:34 AM. Now here’s a great sign, a fingerling Cumulus shooting up from the Catalinas this early!

SONY DSC — 9:39 AM. This is really looking good due to the bulk and towering aspect of the clouds.

9:51 AM. Clouds continue to be quite aroused over the Catalinas! — 9:51 AM. Clouds continue to be quite aroused over the Catalinas, nearly reaching the glaciation level already! I was quite excited myself and took a lot of photos of these.

10:12 AM. Rain! (from a Cumulonimbus capillatus--looks fibrous in its upper portions due to ice crystals and snowflakes — 10:12 AM. Rain! (from a Cumulonimbus capillatus–looks fibrous in its upper portions due to ice crystals and snowflakes

11:12 AM. Within an hour, Lemmon was rumbling, as was this giant off to the N of Saddlebrooke.

11:26 AM. The unusual scene of two outflow winds colliding, just behind the dark base in the foreground. Things were looking so great because you knew there would be an out rush of wind at us, maybe maintaining that big dark base that’s necesssary to keep the rainshafts going its the bottom of the chimney feeding the Cumulonimbus turrets, getting them up there where they cold enough to form new rain/hail/graupel. Its only a few miles away, too!

11:39 AM. Learning module. RIght here you begin to suspect something's wrong, base looking a bit disorganized, not as large and flat, though still has a strong upshoot on the right side — 11:39 AM. Learning module. Here’s where your hope for a great rain should begin to fade, a wave of sadness washing over you. RIght here you begin to suspect something’s wrong, that big fat dark base looking a bit disorganized, not as large and flat, though still has a strong upshoot on the right side. Maybe the disintegration of the base will continue; once started it always does.

11:49 AM. This is the trash base that made it over the house. Put on "The Who", "Won't get fooled again." New base same as the old base. Won't get fooled again." — 11:49 AM. This is the trash base that made it over the house. Going to put on “The Who” now; you remember them: “Won’t get fooled again. New base same as the old base. Won’t get fooled again.” One of the great weather songs of all time.

Dong, twelve noon. That base at 11:39 AM above had enough upward zoom to produce this narrow rain streamer as the base died. If you were out, there was a very close lightning strike at this time in Sutherland Heights. — Dong, twelve noon. That diminishing base at 11:39 AM above had enough upward zoom in it to produce this narrow rain streamer as the base disappeared, got rained out. If you were out, there was a very close lightning strike at this time in Sutherland Heights.

4:24 PM. But the day wasn't over yet was it? BY late afternoon, new Cumulonimbus clouds had arisen, now drifting from the west that produced this unusual scene of spaced rainshafts. — 4:24 PM. But the day wasn’t over yet was it? BY late afternoon, new Cumulonimbus clouds had arisen, now drifting from the west that produced this unusual scene of spaced rainshafts.

7:31 PM. The day ended with another one of our multi-colored sunsets, the ones we love so much in the summer.

Now to get through the dry, HOT few days ahead…. Will be tough.

However, take a look at this radar-derived precip map for the US for just the past 7 days, and just look at how the droughty areas of the SW and Plains States have been hit with tremendous rains during this period. So great to see so much, especially here in AZ and NM. From WSI:

Total precipitation as inferred by radar for the seven days ending today. Fantastic!

The End

The Saddlebrooke mash down; 2.48 inches in under two hours! Flow in the CDO!

Still a chance, a small one for a shower today, before it dries out for a few days. Mods pretty sure about rain on the Cats this afternoon, which is good. Should be a very photogenic day, with nice shots of more isolated thunderblasters.

With that out of the way…let us reprise yesterday, the good and the bad.

Only 0.17 inches here in Sutherland Heights yesterday while Saddlebrooke was getting shafted, rain shafted, that is. Moore Road at La Cholla, over there, also got more than TWO inches yesterday afternoon. You can check the interesting amounts here and here.

Another near miss here at the house. May have to sell if this keeps up. July rain here in Sutherland Heights, now at only 2.87 inches (normal is 3.5 inches) while everywhere within radius of two miles has more, for example, about 3.5 inches already over there to the south on Trotter (just S of Golder Ranch Drive), and 4 or so inches in places in and around Saddlebrooke, almost within ear shot.

Here are the effects of more July rain than here; these shots from yesterday morning down in the Regional State Park next to Lago del Oro Road:

8:05 AM. Riding pal, Nora B., admires the vegetation erupting in Cat Regional Park where they have had more rain than I have. Also note she forgot to put the saddle on my horse Jake. How funny is that? — 8:05 AM. For depth perspective, riding pal, Nora B., co-author with hubby of “Wildflowers of Arizona”, admires the vegetation as she usually does being a big vegetation “author” and all that. This is how the summer vegetation is erupting in Cat Regional Park now where they have had more rain than I have. :(…. Might be worth a look down there. Think about it. Also note; she forgot to put the saddle on my horse, Jake. How funny is that? Also shows I have a friend that doesn’t mind an excessive amount of cloud chatter, unlike our former engineer, Jack R., , who had to rip his headset off when I spoke about clouds to crew members on our research flights at the University of Washington. I liked Jack, though, shown below for reasons of nostalgia.

The late Jack Russell, 1942-1998, engineer with the Cloud and Aerosol Research Group, University of Washington. Kept EVERYTHING running! — The late Jack Russell, 1942-1998, engineer with the Cloud and Aerosol Research Group, University of Washington. He kept EVERYTHING running, though he was not fond of cloud talk! I ahd to tell him about cloud instruments that were busted, but we kidded around a lot, too, leading a grad student who observed our relationship to say, “I don’t know whether Jack loves you or hates you.”

Continuing with vegetation shots after nostalgia break:

Also had a surge down the CDO wash. I know you like to see this, you love water, so here are two shots from yesterday afternoon after the Saddlebrooke mash down:

While the rain was a disappointment, all the other scenes yesterday caused more than 200 photos to be taken from it. Since I have termed myself, rightly or wrongly, as a “cloud maven”, I should show you ones I thought were exceptional, pretty and or dramatic. The first one, while I was looking forlornly at the Saddlebrooke cloudburst, “Why there, and not on me?”:

1:17 PM. The Saddlebrooke mash down as it was happening. Thought it might propagate this way, that is, the push of wind out of this send up a giant Cumulus to Cumulonimbus over ME, and while the sky darkened for awhile, no real cloudburst occurred.

Here’s what rips your heart out, the big, smooth-looking base indicating a good updraft right overhead but nothing comes out. The giant drops, those ones that are the biggest ones in the cloud could be coming down, defeating the updraft that’s been holding them up there because they’ve gotten too big and heavy for it, and likeyly they were even were big hail stones or giant graupel particles (soft hail), and they’re up there. but the strands of those biggest drops begin to streaming downward just a mile away you see. First, you have some sky rage seeing those strands reach the ground just a mile away, your face reddening, but then, being by nature more contemplative, resign yourself to yet another miss as now the sky fills with dead looking debris cloud upstream of you, only producing light, steady “little baby” rain at best, rain that wouldn’t amount to that much, only might be important to a flying ant colony, but that’s about it. Heartbreak Hotel, right here, overhead yesterday, started thinking about moving on again:

12:51 PM. Harris hawk takes advantage of updraft feeding Cumulus congestus base over my house. My heart was aching for those giant drop to fall out. Did the hawk know he was safe from that event somehow? — 12:51 PM. Harris hawk takes advantage of updraft feeding Cumulus congestus base over the house. My heart was aching for those giant drop to start falling out. Did the hawk know he was safe from that event somehow wherein he might have had trouble flying? Maybe he was sensing that the updraft was too chaotic, broken up into small bits, some genetic implant passed down over the eons? Will be watching for hawks under dark cloud bases and what happens now.

1:38 PM. Cu congestus base almost directly overhead. Was overhead a coupla minutes earlier. — 1:38 PM. Another Cu congestus base almost directly overhead. Was overhead a coupla minutes earlier. Not as smooth now as it was then, suggesting the updraft is getting chaotic. Darn.

Thought back, too, to all the promise, the propitious start to the day with those thunderheads, mimicking hydrogen bomb blasts, over the Mogollon Rim on the north horizon at 9:30 AM. As a cloud maven junior, you would been thinking, “THIS is going to be a special day today.” Here’s that distant scene, so fabulous to see, from Equestrian Trail Road:

9:34 AM. Giant Cumulonimbus line the Mogollon Rim already! This is a great sign for a "big day" with a good chance the same kind of air that let this happen is over us, too! Watch out, Catalinas! — 9:34 AM. Giant Cumulonimbus calvus clouds line the Mogollon Rim already! This is a great sign for a “big day” with a good chance the same kind of air that let this happen there is over us, too! Watch out, Catalinas!

11:45 AM. Sure enough, there they go, thunder on the Cats! Superb. Oh,well, you know the rest of the story. Still some great cloud scenes all day. — 11:45 AM. Sure enough, there they go, thunder on the Cats! Superb. Note anvil peaking out on the right side, middle.
Oh,well, you know the rest of the story. Still, there were so many great cloud scenes all day. I loved it overall.

The Lemmon cloud factory; smokin’ yesterday

The first t yesterday, from growing clouds topping Mt; Lemmon was at 9:30 AM, the earliest such event of the summer. Cumulus that grew immediately into Cumulonimbus clouds, then one cell after another in a continuous stream came off Mt Lemmon with no breaks in the dark bases above the spawning area. Had never seen that before. Usually there are breaks between cells, a brief clearing on even the most active days. And those cells really must have sprouted upward around 11:10 AM when, finally, a second blast of thunder occurred. After that grew much more frequent, and by early afternoon, it was almost continuous. Very exciting, as steady rain fell here.

Here in Catalina Sutherland Heights, we were the beneficiaries of the more stratiform (flat, dissipating) part of those Cumulonimbus that stayed rooted on the mountains. Those flat portions provided a more or less gentle rain amounting to 0.18 inches here. However, more than an inch fell in the Mt. Lemmon and Samaniego ALERT gauges. You can see more rain data here from the U of AZ rainlog. org home page. It is a certainty that some mountain sites got considerably more yesterday if you saw the repeated dense shafts of rain S of Samaniego Peak, where 1.10 inches fell. Guessing the peak (but non-measured total) was more like an 1.5 inches. This should recharge many of the normally dry creeks and streams on the Catalinas, and keep the green coming.

Another aspect, making yesterday one of the best visually pleasing days was the absence of haze and smoke. The sunlit Cumulus clouds that were forming away from the mountains and over Oro Valley were especially, pristinely white and gorgeous; took your breath away to see them piling up so high, and so purely, brilliantly white, so clean looking.

Here are some shots from yesterday, beginning with some “morning castellanus”, which were nice to see, too:

7:50 AM. Always a hopeful sign, Altocumulus castellanus float lazily to the north of Catalina.

8:27 AM. Altocumulus castellanus growing into sizes that they would now be called, Cumulus clouds. Those very flat bases tell you that they are not from plumes of warm air from the ground, but are associated with a moist layer that's being gently lifted. Its clouds like these that produce our dawn thunderstorms and showers from time to time, and indicate there's a disturbance in the area lifting the air. It was another hopeful sign of a significant rain. These clouds, unlike the ones that off our mountains, tend to dissipate like Dracula when the sun comes up and burns them off. — 8:27 AM. Altocumulus castellanus growing into sizes that they would now be called, Cumulus clouds. Those very flat bases tell you that they are not from plumes of warm air from the ground, but are associated with a moist layer that’s being gently lifted. Its clouds like these that produce our dawn thunderstorms and showers from time to time, and indicate there’s a disturbance in the area lifting the air. It was another hopeful sign of a significant rain. These clouds, unlike the ones that were starting to grow over our mountains, tend to dissipate lin the morning hours after the sun comes up and burns them off.

8:12 AM. In the meantime, actual, ground launched Cumulus, from the slight amount of morning heating, were already starting to puff up from Ms. Mt. Lemmon. This was really unusual. You can tell that these are "real" Cumulus because such ground plumes of warmer air produce more irregular bases and scattered shred clouds, show more turbulence (movement) when you watch them than Ac cas clouds, the latter seeming to be almost motionless. Looks like today will be a big day for captions! — 8:12 AM. In the meantime, actual, ground launched Cumulus, from the slight amount of morning heating, were already starting to puff up from Ms. Mt. Lemmon. This was really unusual. You can tell that these are “real” Cumulus because such ground plumes of warmer air produce more irregular bases and scattered shred clouds, show more turbulence (movement) when you watch them than Ac cas clouds, the latter seeming to be almost motionless. Bases of these starting Cumulus not too much different in height than the castellanus clouds in the prior shot. Looks like today will be a big day for captions, if nothing else!

9:25 AM. The first Cumulonimbus is about to announce its presence with a thunderblast. No precip evident here, but aloft, next shot, is the "ice" in the overhanging anvil. — 9:25 AM. The first Cumulonimbus is about to announce its presence with a thunderblast. No precip evident here, but aloft, next shot, is the “ice” in the overhanging anvil.

9:25 AM, overhead view showing that this buildup had already deepened upward enough to form ice, and was about to let go of some precip. See arrows.

9:31 AM. Seconds after first, and completely unexpected thunderblast. Didn't look big enough. Top of Mt. Lemmon is obscured in heavy rain. — 9:31 AM. Seconds after first, and completely unexpected thunderblast. Didn’t look big enough. Top of Mt. Lemmon is obscured in heavy rain.

11:13 AM. Finally a second blast of thunder occurred in this cell, though one rain shaft after another drifted across the Catalinas, fading away as they continued across Catalina and Oro Valley.

11:14 AM. A look at the downwind part of these storms where only the deep, flat portion remains. Yesterday we were lucky since it is often too dry underneath these portions for the rain aloft to reach the ground. Steady light rain was occurring at the time of this photo, while deluges were taking place on Samaniego Ridge. Rain from these Cumulonimbus portions shown here is mainly due to melting snowflakes while the strong shafts are produced by melting hail and or graupel,that began as as frozen drops or ice particles that subsequently get heavily rimed (coated with ice) as they collide with supercooled drops in the vigorous rising portions of Cumulonimbus clouds, finding their way down as the updraft weakens or collapses entirely. I can;t believe how big these captions are getting, but it can’t be helped.

11:27 AM. While things were "humming" along from the Catalinas, Cumulus arose elsewhere in a hurry, producing these gorgeous scenes. This cloud is a Cumulonimbus calvus, that short-lived stage when a congestus begins to form ice in its top, but has not gotten to an obvious fibrous stage. That ice is present is seen in the rainshaft already pouring out of this cloud. Can you see that the very top is ice? — 11:27 AM. While things were “humming” along from the Catalinas, Cumulus arose elsewhere in a hurry, producing this gorgeous scene. This cloud is a Cumulonimbus calvus, that short-lived stage when a congestus begins to form ice in its top, but has not gotten to an obvious fibrous stage. That ice is present is seen in the rainshaft already pouring out of this cloud. Can you see that the very top is ice?

6:52 PM. As with many active days, yesterday ended with "debris" clouds from the many Cumulonimbus clouds that formed early in the day, providing a comfortable evening. The clouds are Altocumulus, looks like at two different levels, with an Altostratus overcast above. — 6:52 PM. As with many active days, yesterday ended with “debris” clouds from the many Cumulonimbus clouds that formed early in the day, providing a comfortable, overcast evening. The clouds are Altocumulus, at two different levels, with an Altostratus overcast above. Who says Arizona is unbearable in July? Some of the most pleasant days of the year are now.

Today is supposed to be another early starter as well with rain on The Lemmon before noon, the model runs at the U of AZ from last night say. However, the longer term model runs indicate a break in the summer rain season for a few days after today. I guess that’s when our weather can be that bit unbearable here in July. Phooey.

The End

They would be giants

Cloud bases were very warm again yesterday, 15-20 C (59-68 F) paving the way for thunderstorm rainfalls similar to those seen in the Southeast US, inches in an hour or so. Didn’t happen locally, but just to the north of us toward Park Links Road and up toward the Florence area, likely happened as one giant cell after another formed between Saddlebrooke and Florence.

Those were the only clouds that produced thunder yesterday. Less vigorous clouds rained, but didn’t have the ingredients to be thunderstorms, stronger updrafts, apparently. Also, at times it appeared some of the rain, to this eyeball, was “warm” rain, rain formed without ice, a rarity here in Arizona (something that happens all the time in Hawaii, and over the oceans.)

And if you were sharp, you saw something happen yesterday that is also quite rare; the clouds erupt in our vicinity into Cumulonimbus by 9 AM from surface heating (they weren’t those nighttime showers that tend to fade as the sun comes up). That was exciting because when they took off, it seemed like a day destined to have giants here.

But then something happened, drier air began to move in from the east, and pretty soon, the ONLY large clouds were to the west and north, a sure sign a disturbance aloft was moving through and less favorable conditions for rain would follow it, the normal “couplet”, or sequence.

Sure enough, the clouds over the Catalinas, after such an auspicious start, struggled to grow into Cumulonimbus clouds, as they did elsewhere to our southern flank, while we watched one magnificent Cumulonimbus after another rise up to the north.

Fortunately, a moistening and destabilizing regime of air is moving this way from Texas across northern Mexico toward Douglas, and so our day here in Catalina should be more enlightened, by lightning.

Yesterday’s clouds

6:15 PM Cumulus congestus forms over Oro Valley in smoky air. Died away in 20 min. Nice, isolated example of that cloud, anyway.

12:27 PM. The very most hopeful part of yesterday. Forming over Charoleau Gap was this beauty. I thought I was going to see the first strands of large drops/and graupel pour out of it at any moment. I was so happy then. But then, only misty-looking rain fell out, no strands, filaments, suggesting maybe that it was rain due to drops colliding together than from ice/hail mechanism. Well, did get measurable rain, but only got 0.07 inches. — 12:27 PM. The very most hopeful part of yesterday. Forming over Charoleau Gap was this beauty. I thought I was going to see the first strands of large drops/and graupel pour out of it at any moment. I was so happy then. But then, only misty-looking rain fell out, no strands, filaments, suggesting maybe that it was rain due to drops colliding together rather than from ice/hail mechanism. Well, did get measurable rain, but only 0.07 inches.

More on today’s storms tomorrow; in the meantime, yesterday’s storms

3:32 PM. Severe thunderstorm comes roaring out of TUS and, we hope, Pusch Ridge. But didn't happen. — 3:32 PM. Severe thunderstorm comes roaring out of TUS and, we hoped, “up around the bend”, as the song says (Pusch Ridge). But it didn’t happen. Did dump a whopping 1.93 inches in one hour at an Avra Valley gauge a bit later. Note light gray, lower “arcus” cloud in the center, the sign of strong winds pushing outward from the cell. Very Floridian looking.

Ealier yesterday, a very nice cell traversed the Catalinas dropping a half and more on Ms. Lemmon before sliding down toward the southwest. Here’s what it looked like at its peak:

1:32 PM. Great to see more water landing on those mountains, feeding those washes and creeks.

Other notes: Yesterday morning was the coolest in weeks here at 71-72 F. Perfect.

More storms and mayhem today. Take a look at how low the clouds are on the Catalinas and Samaniego Ridge, always a great sign when they are are low as this for powerful storms and big rain areas, though we missed them yesterday, they were all around.

Feeling pretty good about rain during the rest of July into early August

Don’t really need to explain this NOAA “ensembles of spaghetti” map anymore, so thought I’d just post it. Made me feel real good thinking about all the summer rain ahead in the next two weeks and how green it will be around here then. The second greening of Arizona; its so great!

Valid at 5 PM AST, August 3rd. I think it would make a great summer T-shirt for you, too. — Valid at 5 PM AST, August 3rd. I think it would make a great summer “I ‘heart’ spaghetti” T-shirt for you, too, maybe sleeveless using dry-fit cloth. Still working out the details, of course. When you want to make a LOT of money off a T-shirt, you want to get it right.

Yesterday’s clouds, in cast you missed them, especially the great sunrise:

5:28 AM. Unusual -for -summer Altocumulus lenticularis near the tops of the Catalina Moutains. — 5:28 AM. Unusual -for -summer Altocumulus lenticularis near the tops of the Catalina Mountains.

11:30 AM. The perfect example of Cumulus humilis, those little acorns destined to grow into moderate-sized Cumulonimbus clouds with light-to-moderate showers yesterday afternoon. What was particularly great about yesterday was that we had our usual absolutely stunning visibility due to an absence of the early July smoky skies we saw day after day.

3:27 PM Light showers (Code 2 rainshaft; transparent one) drift across the Catalinas. Cloud too shallow here for lightning.

3:51 PM. Growth of those clouds continued as they moved SW toward Marana. The denser shaft means tops were far higher than they were for those clouds over the Catalinas. “Code 3” shaft, horizon barely visible through it.

The End.

Useless note: Might have been 0.02 inches of rain early this morning, but then again, the tipped buckets might have been due to condensation this coolest morning (71 F) in the past few weeks. Radar did have tiny echo going over….still, not sure it was “rain.” But, heavy dew is good, too! Non-recording gauge also had 0.02 inches, so I guess its was real “rain” not dew! Mystery solved.

Marana sends whopper summer rain aid to Catalina, 1.90 inches! 4.33 inches on Mt. Lemmon!

First, check out these eye-popping totals from the Pima County ALERT network, led by Ms. Lemmon with 4.33 inches!

Yesterday was a day when cloud/storm watching can be kind of fun. Here’s the scene in the early evening, storms over Marana and southern Oro Valley are bypassing Catalina. We only have moderate Cumulus clouds drifting off the Catalinas. You might have been quite sad to see that the storms were missing us, and those friendly folks down there were getting a good rain again. You’d feel good for them, but sad yourself. Maybe we wouldn’t have any summer wildflowers and greening up around Catalina, you began to think, with another miss at hand.

But you would have been “too fast on the mental draw” and should have envisioned the following scenario:

Those strong rainshafts down toward Marana, Twin Peaks area were going to push a mighty blow of wind up our Oro Valley and toward Catalina, and like the miniature cold front it is, would push air it ran into upward and launch the moderate Cumulus overhead and slightly upwind of Catalina into Cumulonimbus cloudzillas.

And you’d have been right.

Imagine telling your neighbor, looking at our so-so clouds, “Wow (be very excited), this is GREAT!” Look at all that rain falling down there toward Marana! Now we’ll get a good rain, maybe a trmndus one!” You’d be so excited, you might start speaking in “text.”

If the following events wouldn’t have made you the neighborhood weather guru for life, probably nothing else would except telling strollers by your house that they had three minutes to raindrops, big sparse ones, like I did yesterday around 6 PM. Those strollers got good and drenched, which was GREAT, too! They kept going outbound with doggie even AFTER I screamed at them about those drops coming. The cloud bottom overhead was just starting to unload.

Oh, well, there’s only so much cloud and weather gurus like us can do to help people.

It was the push from the south toward us that made last evening’s torrents and power outages possible (oops). Lets give those Marana Cumulonimbi a hand, an “assist”, really, like in baseball or basketball!

Here are some dramatic, memorable scenes, the big rainbows, etc, for you. These will be thumbnails because when take more than 200 photos in one day, you can’t post them all… I wish I had a gigantic web site where you could do that, and you with a gigantic wall monitor so that you could enjoy them in life sizes, because they would ALL be there for you to enjoy. Its all about you, again.

They’re going to be a little messed up in the post because, “haven’t time for the pain” (of posting them nicely) as the song said.

The End. Today? Let’s see what happens! Still light rain around even now!

Lemmon drop; 2.28 inches!

We accumulated just 0.01 inches of rain here from those overhanging anvil clouds from thunderstorms centered on top of Ms. Mt. Lemmon early yesterday afternoon but they drenched Ms. Lemmon with 2.28 inches! Details from the Pima County ALERT rain gauges can be found here. The next highest amount was on Samaniego Ridge with a nice 0.79 inches. Both good.

You may have noticed something odd, too, the thunder from those cells was continuous for a long time while Lemmon was getting pounded, quite remarkable, indicating, as you would guess, highly electrified clouds, unusually so.

The last time I experienced continuous thunder without break was in Oklahoma City during the El Reno tornado-producing complex of Cumulonimbus clouds, ones with huge mammatus formations that just ERUPTED from the overhanging, approaching anvil cloud repeatedly. An example of that dramatic OKC scene, FYI:

May 31, 2013, 3:34 PM above ASA Stadium, Oklahoma City. Thunder from in-cloud lightning, as here yesterday, was continuous, not the least break, as the rain approached and tornado sirens went off. Yep, Mr. cloud-maven person was there and took this shot. The former company team, the Washington Huskies, had made it to the WCWS. and me and the missus used to go to the Husky games in Seattle.

Oddly, like that OKC situation, where there was almost no cloud-to-ground lightning as the storm approached, and not so much during the 5-7 inches of rain that fell there that night. Neither was there much C-G LTG around here yesterday with OUR continuous thunder; I saw not ONE cloud to ground strike in the several thunderstorms which developed on top of Ms. Lemmon, nor from the continuous thunder-producing cell toward Charoleau Gap around 7 PM. Here are views of our contrasting thunderstorm and overhang from that at OKC looking toward the Cat Mountains. Below that, the remarkable-to-me, anyway, the continuously thundering cell with a modest rainshaft toward the Gap in the evening hours:

12:34 PM, soon after nearly continuous thunder began on from the cells on top of Ms. Lemmon. — 12:34 PM, soon after nearly continuous thunder began from the Cumulonimbus that erupted on top of Ms. Lemmon.

7:03 PM, looking toward Charoleau Gap and a moderate-sized Cumulonimbus emitting continuous thunder. — 7:03 PM, looking toward Charoleau Gap at a moderate-sized Cumulonimbus ALSO emitting continuous thunder! No cloud-to- ground strikes were seen over about a half hour’s time. And the thunder ended abruptly, like a light bulb that had been unplugged. That was odd, too, since usually LTG tapers off as the conditions producing it slowly change (well, over minutes, anyway.)

I really expected to see some rogue cloud-to-ground strokes coming out of that overhang over Catalina yesterday (middle photo), as often happens here, dangerous ones because they can be quite removed from the rainshaft and so you don’t expect them.

Have only seen one or two days like yesterday before, absent cloud to ground strikes but a lot of electricity up there in Catalina over the past five summers. So if you thought it was an unusual day, you were right.

Today

More showers and TSTMS are expected in the later afternoon and into the nighttime hours according to the U of AZ model run from 11 PM AST last evening. Still hasn’t finished crunching numbers, but goes through tomorrow morning. Again, the flow is from an easterly direction and so the early bombardment of Mt. Lemmon should have us in the trailing overhand again until evening when cells are likely to form away from the mountains today.

A real odditiy is that upper level low from back East (Virginia) that is headed to Catalina land! You can see its progress over the past few days here from the U of WA map makers here–you’ll need a big pipe to see all 64 of these frames in a reasonable time., Here from San Francisco State, these 500 mb maps, starting with the low over West VIrginia and SE Ohio, ending this morning with the low now over the Texas-Oklahoma border! Amazing.

July 12 at 5 AM AST. Low too be here forms over Ohio and West Virginia! Oh, my, this is so funny.

5 PM AST, July 14th. The SAME low is now moving into Texas toward ME! — 5 PM AST, July 14th. The SAME low is now moving from OK into Texas and toward US!

Valid for July 18th at 5 PM AST. Remnant of low moves into SE AZ.

So if something like this happens, we’ll have a DISTURBANCE to cluster our Cumulonimbus clouds into real monsters, ones bigger in area, and ones that last longer, maybe make up some rain deficits around here.

Of course, with such an odd track, lots can go wrong, but its something to keep in mind.

The End.

Thundering and thundering but no raining and raining

Not here, anyway…

We live in interesting times. As with so many days since June 30th, thunder almost rules the day, going on intermittently for hours, as it did yesterday. And yet, only a little rain, just a few drops from an anvil overhang just after 2 PM, can find its way here to my house here in Sutherland Heights, Catalina. I know areas down toward Golder Ranch Drive and just south of there have gotten brief hard rains this July, but not here. What is going on?

Or what is NOT going on? Not enough heating I guess, only the very highest terrain participated in Cumulus and Cumulonimbus production yesterday; those cloud bottoms just could not work their way off the mountain tops, and so only the middle and higher dissipating portions dribbled over Catalina land. No disturbances to group them either, regardless of temperature, like two mornings ago when the line-cluster of thunderstorms came through.

Lets just hope that upper low that used to be over Virginia a coupla days ago can get here and be that needed “disturbance.” You probably didn’t know that weather moves from Virginia, or even Ohio, to Arizona…..well, its happened, and no doubt due to climate change where weather is backward from what it usually is, this low is , now over MO, continues moving west and south, reaching AZ by Wednesday the 17th.

It is a little unusual to see that and here’s what real convective-severe storm weather guru Bob (lives in Tucson, BTW) is saying to a weather folk group in Albany, NY:

“Ed and Greg – the current forecasts looked familiar to me. Check out the 500 mb analysis
series from 00Z 9 August 2003 through 12z 16 August 2003. Short wave in westerlies
over Ohio morphs into an inverted trough in the easterlies. The IT moves SW across the
southern Plains and ends up near the Four Corners on the 16th. It was associated with
a widespread thunderstorm outbreak across Arizona on the 14th. Bob Maddox”

“On 7/12/2013 11:25 AM, Edward Szoke – NOAA Affiliate wrote:
Greg – we remarked about this up at the CIRA weather briefing yesterday in Fort Collins. We see westward moving systems in the sub-tropics, but this far north and heading so far west does seem rather unusual. It looks like quite an outbreak of convection in OK come Sunday presumably as the cold pocket aloft moves over that area. Maybe it will keep moving west, close off and deepen over the 4- corners and bring us the seldom-seen but often talked about July snow! (OK – heat has made me go goofy – hope all is well at the Wx Channel). ed”

End of filler material from experts to get you a little excited, as we all will be if this comes to fruition as now foretold in models.

Yesterday’s pretty castellanus:

5:57 AM. Altocumulus castellanus spire under a higher layer of Altocumulus. — 5:57 AM. Altocumulus castellanus spire under a higher layer of Altocumulus perlucidus.

5:57 AM. Looking west toward the Tortolita Mountains at a large grouping of those lower castellanus clouds. This, I thought, was one of the best shots I've taken of those clouds. — 5:57 AM. Looking west toward the Tortolita Mountains at a large grouping of those lower castellanus clouds. This, I thought, was one of the best shots I’ve taken of those clouds.

6:28 AM. As sometimes happens with these clouds, they can group together and morph into true Cumulonimbus clouds based at high levels, and not caused by heating at the ground. This is a common situation in the Plains States during winter when moist Gulf of Mexico air overrides cool winter air masses. — 6:28 AM. As sometimes happens with these clouds, they can group together and morph into true Cumulonimbus clouds based at high levels capable, as yesterday, producing lightning and brief heavy rain; they’re not caused by heating at the ground like our afternoon and evening storms. This is a common situation in the Plains States during winter when moist Gulf of Mexico air overrides cool winter air masses at the ground.

Our afternoon clouds, ones springing off the heating slopes of the Catalinas, dribbling overhang with sprinkles on Catalina once or twice:

1:30 PM. Cumulonimbus over Ms. Lemmon, middle and upper portions hanging out over Catalina.

4:06 PM. Got pretty excited when this behemoth sprung out over the Cats. But, faded quickly after a lot thunder.

Oh, well. Day ended up with a nice multi-cloud layer sunset, always the best ones:

7:38 PM. Why we love the summer rain season. — 7:38 PM. Why we love the summer rain season and would never go to places like Michigan to avoid it.

Today is supposed to be about like yesterday, but hopeful that more rain can dribble off the Cat Mountains.

The End.

A morning surprise; 0.22 inches here doubles the July total

At least it wasn’t predicted the day before, but how nice to see a “mesoscale convective complex¹” (a bunch Cumulonimbus clouds clustered together) come roaring over the Cat Mountains yesterday morning. Here it is, in case you missed it and want to see it again, from the beginning when what was going to happen was in doubt:

11:00 AM. Major rainshaft, and accompanying dark base where updraft is forming new precip approaches Catalina area.

11:47 AM. THe dramatic backside of this cluster, resembling those seen in the Plains States, good mammatus, too. — 11:47 AM. The dramatic backside of this cluster, resembling those seen in the Plains States; good mammatus, too.

It was great, too, to see some evidence of water on the ground, and several natural livestock ponds form due to the storm. Its been too long since puddles formed. I like puddles, BTW².

11:18. Evidence of significant rain; a puddle has formed.

4:38 PM. Calves inspect new livestock pond on Equestrian Trail Road. — 4:38 PM. Calves inspect newly formed livestock pond on Equestrian Trail Road. Mom not impressed.

Go here to see some regional rainfall totals from the Pima County network and here for the U of AZ network.

What was best was the clarity of the air after the rains washed all that smog, and we had our brilliantly white clouds against that deep blue sky back:

4:10 PM Cumulus mediocris over the Catalinas.

Today:

First, right now (6 AM) we have some of the best Altocumulus castellanus around I have ever seen. So pretty!

U of AZ 11 PM mod run expecting afternoon showers/TSTMS over Cat Mountains today, trailing off to the NW and near Catalina proper. Showers and lightning now to the S-SW, expected to die out before reaching us. So, happens, look for bases launched in the late morning and early afternoon to drift overhead–often a street of clouds forms over the southern portions of the Cat mountains about where that dark base in the first photo is, and if we’re lucky, will dump in this area. Look toward Table Mountain and a stream of clouds from around there headed this way.

————

¹It would be great if you used this term with your neighbors when talking about yesterday’s rain: “That was a great MCS that came through yesterday morning! Hope we get another one today, though rain in the morning here is rare, but anyway…..” Neighbor “A what went through?” You: “Oh, sorry, I meant a nice cluster of thunderstorms. ” You continue: “As a cloud-maven junior, I’m learning a lot incomprehensible jargon that I can use to impress neighbors. Hey, have you heard of the ‘diffusion domain’? That’s when you’re flying in clouds and you can’t see either the ground or the sun! The next time you fly and that happens, tell the passenger next to you…..”Hey, I think we’re in the diffusion domain.”

²Photographed a lot of puddles on a trip to Death Valley in 2005 (wettest rain season there in 75 years). It was a lot of fun for me.