About real clouds, weather, cloud seeding and science autobio life stories by WMO consolation prize-winning meteorologist, Art Rangno
Those morning Altocumulus clouds (no ice) were pretty yesterday! Took too many shots, as usual. Here are a couple:
The temperature at the top of these clouds, located at about 14,000 feet above sea level: 2 C, 35 F.
First, yesterday’s sunset:
Some pie, H-pie: Whereas a modest push of moisture into Tucson and central Pima County was deemed insufficient to produce rain here yesterday, some drops DID fall here producing a trace late yesterday afternoon.
But some areas of the Catalinas got clobbered with White Tail, over there around Sabino Canyon, collecting 2.17 inches (!) and Samaniego Ridge over thisaway, 0.47 inches, the latter from a pile of Cumulus congestus clouds that blossomed into a Cb with a dense rain shaft right before the writer’s eyes. This after he had opined to his wife that he doubted those dark clouds would rain on the western side of the Catalinas…. Hmmmm.
They thundered and rained a plenty, and the wind that came out of that shaft dropped the temperature some 15 degrees here in Sutherland Heights with wind gusts to more than 35 mph. Furthermore, that outflow, spreading out across Oro Valley and parts NW, and went on to launch one new thunderstorm north of Saddlebrooke, which was very nice, of course. Didn’t think that would happen either as very dry air was working its way in already from the SW.
As the clouds massed over Catalina-Sutherland Heights, was returning from a fabulous tour “investigating” the results of 8-12 inches of rain in Jul of the area around Sierra Vista-Fort Huachuca along HWYs 90 and 92 then through Coronado National Memorial Park (about 10 inches fell at Visitor’s Center in July), then over Montezuma Pass (6575 ft) and on to Sonoita.
Holy Smokes was that gorgeous; highly recommended. Traveling down HWY 90, With Stratocumulus topping the green, forested Huachuca Mountains, and the green in the foreground, one thought of Hawaii. Some photos from that trip FYI. It’ll be a LONG time before this happens again! Also, some summer wildflowers are in display as well.
Hot dry days ahead for awhile, as you know. May have to generate some filler material….
The End.
Yesterday at this time it appeared that we had a good chance of a few high-based Cumulonimbus clouds with some virga and the chance of a sprinkle making it down to the ground. Well, the precipitating clouds were even higher than expected, but with some nomenclature razzle-dazzle, I think we can say that the forecast of Cumulonimbus clouds in our domain did, in fact, verify. Below, the first use of the cloud descriptor, “Nanocumulonimbus.”
The early morning clouds were spectacular full of promise for yesterday, promise that went mostly, well, entirely really, unfulfilled. Here are those sweet morning clouds, more like Altocumulus castellanus, though some reached sizes that they would have to be termed, Cumulus congestus and Cumulonimbus, the latter with some virga and light rainshowers to the ground.
Today’s clouds
U of AZ WRF-GFS mod thinks there’s a better chance of showers and thunderstorms here in Catalina today, but this is dependent on a easterly surge of moist air this morning. Don’t get your hopes up too much, since we’re kind of on the westerly edge of this surge, and then it goes away. SO, everything really has to come together, and right now, our dewpoints are really down (37 F here) and the moist air is still east of TUS. But, as you know, some of the fun of weather forecasting is weather watching and seeing what Nature is actually going to do.
The weather way ahead
Mod outputs, including spaghetti plots, not looking that great for a full resumption of our summer rain season.
But, with a trough tending to recur along the West Coast in these plots, there’s the chance of a tropical storm being steered this way late in the month. Hey, remember August 1951? Maybe that will happen again in AZ to make August a more respectable rain month after sputtering most of the month…. Dreaming, of course, of the unlikely.
The End.
Not expected by this brain yesterday, but several of those many more Cumulus clouds than expected also fattened up to heights where ice began to form, also not expected. As you know, that means precip fell out, at least up there. As a weatherman-cloud person, there are always surprises every day (!) to delight and disappoint you. Its quite and exciting life we lead.
How cold were those tops?
Well, you know, colder than -10 C on a day with very high and COLD cloud bases1. How high and cold were the cloud bottoms yesterday. Oh, about 0 C (32 F, of course) at 14,000 feet above the ground, 5,000 fee above Ms. Mt. Lemmon, the taller tops extruding upward to between -15 C and -20 C (5 F to -4 F), about right for the amount of ice that developed, “eyeballed” concentrations of a few to 10s per liter of air in those clouds (for size, think of a liter size plastic bottle of Bud Light with some ice crystals in it). (Remember, a LONG time ago in another area of the Universe2,3, Mr. Cloud-Maven Person flew into such clouds with instruments aboard his Cloud and Aerosol Research aircraft and can say things like this with what appears to be some authority.)
Here are those clouds from yesterday, which I am sure you logged with excitement in your weather diaries:
Today the cloud bottoms are 1,000 feet lower than yesterday afternoon. But is it a diurnal effect where bases are always lower in the cool mornig (“morning”; intentionally spelled wrong to see if you’re paying attention) than in the afternoon? BTW, if you like soundings, go to the “Happy State of Wyoming, the nation’s happiest4, to see all the soundings you want at the University of Wyoming
But, we have a windshift in the middle levels traipsing over us late this afternoon (U of AZ TUS sounding forecast here), and that will be, we hope, something like a fork lift; help to push cloud tops up just it goes by. (However, I can find no evidence of such a windshift in larger scale models, so MAYBE I have mistaken a diurnal shift induced by our mountains as a “trough”. A trough would be a lot better, a diurnal turning of the wind, not so great a weathermaker. Another one of those “surprises”; they can come from all quadrants.
SO, high based Cumulus, some growing into Cumulonimbus clouds here and there, with some sprinkles because the bases are too high for a really good rain. But, hey, if you want a really good forecast, not a crummy one like this, see Bob and the NWS.
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1Remember cloud bases can be cold, but NOT temperatures, which are high and low. The AIR is warm and cold.)
2Remember the solar system is speeding along (45,000 mph or so) in the Universe around the Milky Way Galaxy to god knows where (the constellation Hercules, according to the Stanford Solar Center).
3Quite fond of footnotes; they add a scholarly aura to trashy writing like this.
4OBJECTIVE HAPPINESS BY STATE We’re not THAT happy in AZ, BTW, but people are really happy in Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota. Huh.
..due to an absence of weather.
Thought maybe a nice distraction from yesterday’s rain disappointment would be looking at some file boxes from the University of Washington’s Atmos. Sci. basement. This shot taken a couple of days ago.
Enjoy thinking about what might be in these boxes, and what you would do with the contents. Have some extra coffee, talk it over with friends, think about how much you might offer if one of these boxes was something on a quiz show, and you had one thing you knew what it was, but had to take your chances on what might be in one of these boxes1? Or if saw them in storage locker you were bidding on. How much? Lots of possibilities to think about.
———weather part——
You started to get a bad feeling about yesterday, in spite of the juicy clouds on Samaniego Ridge, bases around 15 C, extremely warm for AZ, meaning full of extra condensed water compared to our normal clouds, when the north wind began to blow, and the temperature was struggling to go beyond 80 F.
Usually, when the cloud bases are low, it doesn’t take a LOT of heating to power them up into Cumulonimbus (Cbs) clouds because the condensation itself releases heat. But struggling to reach 82-83 F here was just too little heat.
Late in the afternoon we did have a nice, if weak, Cb on the Cat Mountains (no thunder, of course, it was that weak). They did get half an inch on top of Mt. Lemmon and a couple of other places, so at least SOME rain fell near us.
And, not only did we have the “juice”, high amounts of water in the atmosphere over us, but also a nice cyclonic swirl passed overhead yesterday, too, something we normally look to cluster Cumulonimbus clouds into large groupings with major rains. From the U of WA, you can see it go by here.
To finish off thoughts of yesterday, some mood music to go along with those thoughts, I would like you to now hear covers of “pretty songs” by the Circle Jerks.
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Here are your clouds from yesterday, I know you’ll want to see them again, mope around some more about what could have been. We will begin our review of yesterday’s clouds with today’s morning rainbows:
No real chance of rain now for a few days. Oh, me.
The End.
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1Example of a quiz show where you bit on a mystery box if you want, or take the thing that’s offered in front of you.
Let us first begin first by NOT exulting too much over our own rain, but let us revel in that rain that has fallen in the Plains. New Mexico, too. From WSI Intellicast this beauty for the past 7 days:
Below is our national drought status at the onset of the week above (for July 30, 2013), and indicates why so many of us should be thankful for this past weather week:
Here are some area-wide 24 h totals, ending now, from the Pima County Alert system.
Yesterday’s clouds
Well, they didn’t get so big, so soon over the Lemmon, as foretold by one model referred to yesterday, but there was something later in the afternoon near the top of Lemmon. Can you detect whether that the turret shown below is mostly “glaciated” or not? You know, that’s why I do this, to learn you up on clouds and when they got ice and therefore are precipitating out the bottom even though here you can’t see the bottom. It all for YOU. Its no problem for me, of course.
Nice sunrise this morning….
Another morning of remnant rains moving through right now, rather than the full blast. As usual, these clouds and rain showers are likely to be dissipating in the later morning before doing much.
Looks like one last day of possible big showers here….check this out from the U of AZ, 11 PM run (WRF-GFS mod).. Lets hope so, cuz its gonna be dry after this for a few days.
The End.
…says the sky on August 5th, referring to almost the exact same sky as on August 4th at this time. Also, both days had OCNL LTG (texting “occasional lightning” here in weatherspeak) off the to distant NE, unusual for this time of day. Even heard thunder this AM.
Below, which shot is from today, just now, and which boring shot of “stratiform” debris clouds from complexes of Cumulonimbus clouds that have dissipated instead of arriving here full strength boo-hoo is from yesterday?
So what’s the routine now? Gradual thinning with isolated showers, ones that also eventually disappear, followed by brighter skies, and growing of Cumulus clouds like desert weeds in July after the first rain. You’ll have noticed by this time that was a cloud scruff (Stratus fractus) on Ms. Lemmon today, indicating that the moisture is enhanced today over yesterday when the bases were appreciably above Ms. Lemmon. So, a better chance of rain, sans any model glimpses, but then since rain was very sparse yesterday, except for that 2 inches that fell in the mountains S of TUS yesterday afternoon (1.61 inches measured at the Florida Canyon Work Center), almost anything would be an enhancement of a rain chance here over yesterday so I have fudged some words here.
What happened to produce all these dense, morning clouds the past two days? Cloud gigantism in northern Mexico last evening and overnight. Must have had a TON of precip in these complexes that just exploded down there, inches of rain no doubt fell. Sure wish we had some reports under these magnificent blow ups. There are quite a few rain measuring stations in Mexico, but that data is not available from remote areas until they’re published. Here’s a view of last night’s Mexican eruption from IPS Meteostar.
!! PM AST U of AZ mod has rain “on the mountain” (the Catalina ones) by 3 PM AST, and, like yesterday strong storms to the south of us heading this way. But, like yesterday afternoons showers down thataway, they don’t make it here, the model reports. You can do the loop for precip here in their rendition of the WRF-GFS mod. Hoping Mr. Leuthold, our U of AZ expert, will shed further light on this when he reports here today between 10 and 11 AM. In the meantime, I am sure convection expert, Bob (Maddox), will have something to say before then.
Not looking that great for a juicy August rain season here in Catalina Sutherland Heights…. Recall last year we had about 8 inches in July and August here, and at the end of August the mountains and grasses were SO green!
The End.
“Alas”, now there’s a word to don’t see every day…probably a little stiff from laying around so long.
Those Cumulus that shot up over the Catalinas early yesterday morning were a magnificent sight, and so full of promise. And while thunder was heard here just after 11 AM here in Sutherland Heights-Catalina, the showers just did not get off the mountains around here as hoped, though there were a few big boys (or “gals”, to be gender neutral) around to the NW-N and down to the S-SW during the afternoon. Here are the Pima County ALERT totals for the past 24 h. Lemmon had a good drop of 1.46 inches; that’ll surely keep those mountain streams going. But as you will see, not much elsewhere. Just a trace here, our mode for this summer in Sutherland Heights-Catalina area it seems.
BTW, all available model outputs (U of AZ 11 PM run not available at this time) show fewer showers than yesterday, though to CM, it looks like a very similar day to yesterday in sat imagery and such1. So, it would seem we have a another day with a chance for a good rain in the afternoon or evening, about like yesterday when some showers did form off the mountains and could have landed on us. Besides, even without rain, it was a pretty day anyway. Its all great.
Here is yesterday’s cloud history with its early promise, ultimately only fulfilled only on the Catalinas around here:
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1BTW, if you want a really GREAT forecast by a true expert, rather than a “shoot from hip” kind of one that CM so often offers, you have to read what Bob has to say today when he posts it. U of AZ experts also often refer to his careful analyses.
2Here they sing about something we probably don’t want to happen to Catalina, Arizona.
Its not a motorcycle gang, though it would be a good name for one comprised of meteorologists. Don’t think that’s gonna happen.
If you were watching carefully, and you had no radar capability on your smart phone, you could have still detected the presence of clouds producing rain. Here’s what they looked like, in a kind of a washed out, low-contrast view toward the southern horizon. AZ mod didn’t have them there, so it was a nice surprise to see them. It suggests that the chances of scattered rain today, and rumbles from the The Lemmon, are pretty good. Model output from yesterday DID have that for today; rain on The Lemmon this afternoon into this evening, drifting northwestward onto the valley. Yay! Waxing rain gauge so that the first drops don’t stick in the dust covered collector part, but zoom down into the inner cylinder (the part that magnifies the amount collected so you can read hundredths). You don’t want any water molecules from those drops, “leaving the building” before they get in.
Here’s a photo of those thunderheads crossing the border yesterday afternoon:
Nice to see some Cumulus mediocris shading Mt. Lemmon, too.
And here it is, nine minutes later:
So, there are pretty much all of your clouds for yesterday. What more can I do?
The End
This just in: just when you think you can’t possibly do anymore, this sunrise;
