Cloud-maven – Page 83 – About real clouds, weather, cloud seeding and science autobio life stories by WMO consolation prize-winning meteorologist, Art Rangno

Is it India? Or is it Catalina?

Let’s have a contest, get the brain going.

With dewpoints hovering near, and even eeking into the low 70s in AZ, with giant thunderstorms complexing our weather with sudden stupifying downpours, one wonders, after all of these blogs, this “body of work” if you will, if the several people who comprise the Cloud-Maven blogpire, one that radiates from one part of Catalina to another, would be able to know where they were if they could be transported to the locations in these two sets of four photos. (BTW, all of which were taken by the present Arthur–hahahaha.)

OK, drum roll, insert photos here.

Two were taken at the Madras (now Chennai) International AP in Meenambakkam, Tamil Nadu, India, in September 1975, and the other two just yesterday afternoon in Catalina, where most of us live. Remember, there are mountains in India, so just because you see some mountains doesn’t mean its NOT India. Also, just because I mentioned two were taken in India first, doesn’t mean necessarily that they are the first two shots below.

OK, begin thinking and analyzing, maybe drink some more coffee.

OK, if you guessed the first two photos were actually taken in India during the REAL monsoon in 1975, you were right. That’s a friend, Venkateswaran, on the far right of the first photo admiring the arcus cloud ahead of the downpour.

The result of our “pseudo-monsoon”, which was a pretty good imitation of the real thing yestserday, shown in the second set of two photos, was another 1-2 inches in the CDO watershed, 0.75 inches in here SE Catalina, 1.16 inches at Sutherland Heights, and a whopping 1.92 inches yesterday afternoon and Our Garden (Jesse, personal communication), keepers of the Catalina long term climo records.

What was the effect on the CDO River at the bottom of East WIlds Road?

It got huge. Coulda rafted brown water. Below are more shots of the CDO wash/river again for the second day in a row, ones after yesterday’s dump. A young bystander (i.e., fellow gawker) said I had arrived after the peak! Said the churning waves that developed every 20 min or so due to surges down the wash, were 8-10 feet high! Here they were about half that, 4 feet or so from trough to ridge. I wanted to “shop” a water buffalo in one of these photos so BAD!

Of course, this flood is “mild” compared to the Aug 25th, 2003 flow, which covered Lago del Oro road.

BTW, rainfall totals hereabouts are now up to or exceed the average July monthly amount of 3.xx inches.

The Weather Ahead

With high dewpoints once again today, 64 F here in Catalina, more large thunderstorms are pretty much in the bag, and importantly, this assertion is corroborated by calculating models, all that I looked at. Here is the forecast rain picture for 4 PM today from the Beowulf Cluster at the University of AZ: 4 PM 20120715_WRF Precip (Flash Animation) As you will see, WIDESPREAD rain is expected, with totals in the “best” cores getting up to 1-2 inches again. Wow, three days in a row of major storms.

Things are supposed to dry out some tomorrow, but showers will still be around before a break of a couple or three days.

The End.

Shafted!

Rain shafted, that is. 0.50 inches in 15 minutes yesterday between 2:43 and 2:58 PM. 0.76 inches in 13 minutes in the Sutherland Heights district above Catalina, with wind gusts to 50 mph! One of the most memorable summer days ever here in Catalina. One station, Oracle RIdge in the Catalinas, 1.5 miles N of Rice Peak, reported 2.32 inches. No wonder we had a strong flow in the CDO wash yesterday afternoon! Rafting anyone?

And what a spectacular beginning to the day, filled with portent by those ultra low Stratocumulus and Cumulus cloud bases hugging Samaniego Ridge, the humid air that enveloped us reminding one of the Phillipines, or Gainesville, FL, in July. That was a real key to the kind of day that likely lay ahead, those low cloud bases telling us that our humidity was not just in a shallow layer near the ground as we could feel.

But who needs Florida in July when you can be right here in Arizona? Voluptuous Cumulus congestus clouds piled into the heavens early and often just like in FL, some with pileus veils as well, also common in FL, in route to blossoming into Cumulonimbus calvus, then capillatus clouds, tops reaching above 40,000 feet above us. The Charoleau Gap/Oracle area were hit often all morning and into the early afternoon with great rolls of thunder with one station reporting more than two inches (as noted) and several over an inch.

Because there was so much water in the air, unusually dense rainshafts poured forth from the bottoms of those clouds in just a couple of minutes, oblitering the scenes behind them. Too much precip up there for any updraft to hold off for very long, then the collapse!

Here’s one sequence, the one that led to our 15 minute drenching. The first shot shows the blockbuster that roared down through Charoleau Gap. The ferocious NE winds that preceded the rain caused the clouds to its south (where I was) to experience a growth spurt by displacing the humid air near the ground, jacking it upward. I noticed this happening by the second shot. When the winds hit, you always start looking up for “surprise” developments right over you. But after that, trying to catch a daylight lightning flash from the Charleau Gap storm, forgot to check that darkening base every 12 seconds as I would normally do. My apologies, since the third shot showing the fully collapsed, unbelievably dense rainshaft (3rd shot) was a FULL EIGHT MINUTES later. Damn.

Finally, the last two are during the height of the storm itself. Phenomenal intensity.

I suppose I took too many photos, only about 0.0004% of them can be shown here, but, let us not forget those PRO photographers that had ONE day to document, was it the Chiracaua National Park a couple of years ago? One said he had been conservative and “only” took 2,000 photos, while his friend, more promiscuous, took 8,000 that day! I only took 200 or so…

Here’s a gallery of yesterday’s scenes, including suggestions of a funnel cloud a few miles NNW of Catalina at 10:45 AM. BTW, you can reprise the whole day, as through you were a student standing on top of Atmospheric Sciences Building at the U of A here.

Today

We’re still in Floridian=style air with dewpoints, a measure of how much water is in the air around us, even HIGHER than yesterday with several stations from Yuma to Tucson reporting a whopping 70 F dewpoint. Doesn’t get higher than that here, I don’t think. As pointed out, the higher the humidity, the more precip can form in those Cumulonimbus clouds, but also, that greater amount of water, showing up first at cloud base when it condenses, is also like adding a little furnace at the bottom of our clouds. This is because the condensation of lots of water in the cloud offsets the cooling that occurs as the air expands on its way up. That means its easier for clouds to rise up and dump on the more humid days.

However, along with that, the numbers and clustering of these systems is also dependent on favorable patterns high in the atmosphere, like troughs. If they are not there, and its just moist, you can still get yer Cbs, but they may be short-lived, and in the worst cases, send out huge anvils that help terminate other Cumulus clouds by keeping the surface temperatures down.

So, what kind of a day will it be? Large, long-lived clusters with their inches of rain, or localized thunderblasters that burn out fast?

I don’t know, but Bob (our local premiere scientist on convection), and later Mike, his counterpart at the U of AZ, probably will, our true Arizona summer rain experts…

I haven’t got time to get the forecast right, BUT, the AZ Mod seems to suggests big showers today coming up from the S. So, Catalinians, keep your eye toward Orcacle Road into Tucson by later this morning and throughout the day and evening… Could be another memorable day for us.

The End.

Catalina traces out while flooding occurs nearby again

Flash news: Nearly CONTINUOUS lightning from a localized spot at 3:30 AM just NW of the Tortolita Mountains. Amazing for this time of day. Continuous lightning is a rare event, especially here, mostly seen with big complexes of thunderheads. And this small thunderstorm just erupted at that time “out of the blue”, according to its radar history. Thunder was barely audible, and most of the flashes seemed aloft, toward its top.

Well, quite an exciting way to get started today. What the HECK caused that small cell to explode like that? Now, at 4:08 AM there’s just a sad remnant moving toward PHX. Probably dumped an inch or more on somebody out there at its peak, a real “flashflood” event I’d say for somebody, one that happened before the NWS could even react. Very unusual.

Rehashing yesterday, which produced only a sprinkle here just before 5 PM (trace of rain). Pretty tired of reporting traces all the time. OK, here goes:

Caption function fails again in WP; so here is the caption for #3: 4:31 PM. Row of clouds above fizzles out; none produced a shower (reached high enough for tops to form ice). But, here, a base seems organizing practically right overhead! If this one sprouts a top high enough to glaciate, there could be a real localized dump of rain! Will watch for strands to begin emanating from this base.

Caption 4: 4:47 PM. The awful sight of a broken up cloud base has occurred after the promising solid base. (Many of you know that as a professional photographer, I specialize in photographing cloud bases, its niche I have filled) A few raindrops fell out at this time, suggesting the top may have just crossed the ice-forming threshold height above; but no strands, no shaft developed. Dang.

Caption 5: In the meantime, the dark layer seen in the second photo from a giant complex of Cumulonimbus clouds far to the S has overspread the sky, killing all the remaining Cumulus buildups. This layer, completely composed of ice crystals and snowflakes, would be termed, Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus. Its an awful sight sometimes.

Caption 6: While overspreading the sky during the evening, that layer provided some nice background lighting for this row of Altocumulus castelanus.

This morning’s sky and what we can get out of it:

Well, we STILL have our “stratiform” overcast up top, above at least two other layers of clouds.

The lowest of these was topping Ms. Mt. Sara Lemmon, which are the lowest bases we’ve seen in the current surge.

Going along with that is that the lower air continues to be extremely humid, knocking out the effectiveness of evap coolers, with dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s all across southern and central AZ.

But, one aspect we have to get rid of: the overcast on top of all this. It won’t get hot enough to spawn good storms until we do. But this one is thick and composed of ice. Ice takes longer to evaporate, burn off, unlike Altocumulus droplet clouds, which by definition, are quite thin and burn off readily. These were taken at 5:20, 6:09. and 6:23 AM, respectively.

So, a slow start but one would think, major rains in the area, maybe here, are in the bag. Take a look at the huge amounts that fell to the S of us in the 24 h ending at 5 AM AST this morning, 1-4 inches over a vast area of southern Arizona (from Intellicast.com). The day before yesterday, those kinds of rains were to the N of us.

Our turn today?

In the Dead Zone yesterday; evap coolers to fail again today as more humidity moves in

You can the excessive humidity we have here on this nice map from the U of AZ this morning. Its represented by dewpoint temperatures, the temperature at which the air must be cooled to have condensation. Our dewpoints, up from yesterday are running in the mid-60s; 66 F at TUS and 65 F here in Catalina.

Don’t expect your evap coolers to work too good today, and when they don’t work too good, expect rain. (BTW, I am really great at forecasting rain, very few forecasts I make lack something about rain in them whether it occurs or not-like yesterday.

However, our real summer rain experts, ones that did send out their special e-mails, were quite aware that things weren’t right yesterday. Check this out if you are so inclined. I love to get these since I need to be learned up on summer rain here; still a lotta ignorance going on.

Yesterday WAS shocking in a sense that the many shafts of rain expected expected in THIS area from this computer keyboard did not materialize, only that one off toward Twin Peaks-Avra toward evening, and that nice line of distant Cumulonimbus clouds to the NW (not shown today).

Its amazing that with all that humidity YESTERDAY morning, we ended up being in the Dead Zone. Take a look at this satellite image from the University of Washington at 3:45 PM AST. Look at the clean slot there, marked by the arrow. Dang! Oh, well, TODAY will be different! Expected to get “shafted” (rain shafted) royally around here, at least we should see some, and this time the U of AZ model output is on board, though only has a brief mid-afternoon cell in our area and that’s it for us (this from the 11 PM AST run here). This will be updated later this morning. Gee, with all this humidity, I would expect to see more than that, but don’t feel I am on solid ground due to yesterday’s diappointment.

Here’s the AZ radar-derived map from Intellicast.com showing that 1-2 inches fell just north of us!

Have to go now…will likely blab more later.

8 Notifications

Rainshafts galore

How great was yesterday with the “return of the shafts”! Though we only received a trace here in Catalina, you knew, if you saw them, that some small areas were getting drenched.

How much?

The Pima County Alert Network indicates that 0.28 inches was the most that fell in their gages. But, from experience, you can bet that somewhere up to half an inch fell on somebody out there, judging by shaft density and the height of the cloud bases–bases were a bit on the high side, at around 10,000 feet above the ground (and moderately cool at 5-6 C) . Will post a radar-derived 24 h rain total map when it comes out (it has) from Intellicast.com. (Gee, there it is and that eye-ball assessment seemed pretty accurate.)

Below are some shots of those glorious, local, late breaking, rainshafts. (Was about to give up on rain in mid-afternoon since Cumulus development had stagnated. But as happens, the atmosphere changes, maybe got hot enough with our 103 F at about the time these boys took off, and, voila, up the tops of those Cu went pretty much all around us.

Note the baby rainshaft below. They’re pretty special. If you were to get in one, you would see that it was pouring rain, but only on you. You could look and couple of hundred yards in every direction and see that it was only raining on YOU. You’d feel pretty special about yourself; maybe boost that self-esteem a bit.

If you want the full review of yesterday’s excitement, go here to the U of A time lapse movie. You’ll see the sky change drastically after about 4:30 PM (if you can read the tiny time hack in the lower right hand corner.)

Today?

The amount of water over us continues to climb, and surface dewpoints reflect that, some in the 60s (61 F here in Catalina now)–meaning a lot of water vapor is around, the fuel of a good rainstorm. The local model run from the U of AZ based on 06Z (11 PM LST) data doesn’t have a lot going on hereabouts, it seems to expect today to be a lot like yesterday–but that would be good.

However, with cloud bases likely to be lower and warmer, that will mean bigger dumps in those rainshafts as more water funnels up into those rising afternoon Cumulonimbus turrets. Hoping for a special e-mail later this morning from the U of A summer rain specialists, always exciting since they only issue them when they think something “good” is going to happen. Didn’t get one yesterday, deemed to tame a day maybe. BTW, “good” is defined by meteorologists as heavy rain, blowing dust from outflow winds, flash floods, lightning, maybe some hail thrown in, etc.

Looking for rain in all the wrong places…like here in Catalina

Another dry day yesterday, a tough one to take, since it appeared that rain hereabouts was a virtual certainty. All the model runs I saw from the U of AZ had good rains at times on the Catalinas yesterday afternoon and into the evening, as they do again for today. Here’s one U of A model output for 2 PM yesterday (WRF Surface (Flash Animation) as an example.

So, when the dense Altocumulus clouds with their spotty sprinkles and light showers finally thinned and the sun burst forth in the afternoon, up went the Cumulonimbus clouds within the hour off in the distance from Catalina to the NE and SE. It was going to be a great afternoon and evening I thought. Tucson International AP reported lightning, thunder, off and on yesterday until after midnight, and even a few drops! Go here if you want to see all of last night’s action in the satellite and radar imagery from IPS Meteostar.

But none here. Check the radar-derived precip from Intellicast.com. You can see light rain was all around Catalina, dang.

2012071112Z_Azpcp — Rainfall for the 24 h period ending at 5 AM AST today.

Cumulus started to form above Ms. Lemmon, and it seemed one of those was bound to explode upward as well. While a brief sprinkle/virga fell out of one of those clouds at one point when it reached the “Cumulonimbus mediocris” stage, one I made up, no full eruption occurred. It was incredible that didn’t happen, and so discouraging when you claim to be a Cloud-Maven, one who is supposed to know stuff.

The full discouraging day can be seen here, if you can stand to review it. Still, these films are pretty interesting no matter what happens when clouds are present.

By evening all Catalina threats were seemingly gone, with no promising, massive clouds approaching from the northeast as they often do here at that time of day in the summer, rolling down out of the White Mountains, blackening the sky behind Charoleau Gap. I missed a great sunset, too.

About today, in view of my poor track record, you might want to check out what Bob has to say. He is one of the premiere scientists in convection, and lives right here in Tucson! I think he has better graphics, too. Also, here is the forecast from our NWS for Catalina, better get that in there for more balance, and maybe more accuracy! They think the chance of measurable rain today in Catlina is but 10%.

However, being indefatigable, imperturbable, immutable, stubborn, I will press on with this forecast space: _____________________ (write in your own forecast; it will likely be better than mine). PS: I think it will rain today.

BTW, even the coarse (as in grid spacing) Nvironment Canada model has a wet Arizona week ahead. So, if not today, tomorrow!

Below, a photo reprise of yesterday.

Thundery trace; expect more than that today

(A note: I am not getting WYSIWYG in what I am writing and what is posted in WP. This is SO FRUSTRATING! True I am a bit of an amateur at WP, but those spaghetti plots that start the blog are SUPPOSED TO BE AT THE END OF IT as I see them in the draft, not absorbed in the “gallery” as well, dammitall!) Computers and sofware are going to kill me, I am sure. Where are my pills?!

Another promising start to a summer day today in Cat Land, as was yesterday since we have another cloud filled morning, some clouds having weak rainshafts indicating glaciation in the turrets sprouting from today’s layer. And, there’s been a slight uptick in moisture over us, which raises the chances for measurable rain in Catalina today. We also have support for this contention in the great U of A local model forecasts here, based on last night’s 11 PM AST run! Yay!

Below, the photographic diary for yesterday starts begins with the Altocumulus opacus layer, with more than one layer up there. Then, after the usual thinning-dissolution of that layer in the morning, the welcome sight of baby Cumulus beginning to appear over Mt. Lemmon by noon. Those Cu steadily inflated reaching the “glaciation” level by 1:31 PM, a welcome sight after the “dud” Cumulus clouds of the prior two days.

After our first thundery spell, several new thunderstorms developed to the NW and E-SE over the Catalinas late in the afternoon, but again, produced only another trace in a 20 minute or so of “very-light-rain-its-not drizzle” (one of the recurring themes here).

Since I can’t add more captions after the icy sprout, a WP problem, the times of the last few photos are, 1:53 PM, 2:08 PM, and finally, another great sunset sequence, some distant Cumulonimbus to the NW and another blazing sunset underlighting some virga from the remains of our last thunderstorm, these taken at 7:30 PM.

1:31 PM. That icy sprout on the top meant a rainshaft was already fully developed inside that cloud. There’s always some of it falling out.

The Weather Ahead, way ahead:

We’re always on pins and needles this time of year, hoping for the best summer rains we can get, at least I am. The transformation of the desert into green again during the summer, after the spring greening, is one of THE most rewarding aspects about living here in the summer, flying ant swarms aside.

Below are the “spaghetti” plots from NOAA that give us some clue about the reliability of the longer term model forecasts. These are for the afternoon of July 19th, some ten days from now, and the afternoon of July 23rd. Both plots below strongly indicate that the circulation pattern is ripe for good summer rains here between now and the 24th. Doesn’t mean that every day will have rain, but it does mean recurring summer rains are likely with no long breaks. That black region over the SW indicates a high probability (not certainty!) that our big fat SW summer anticyclone will be well positioned for good summer rains here. In contrast, if that black area was OVER southern Arizona, or to the south, it would be a horribly, hot dry spell here that the models were foretelling.

Lemmon bloom

Thunderstorms in the distance crept toward the Catalinas late in the day, and after sunset, an approaching, but thinning anvil of a dead Cumulonimbus cloud (no updrafts remaining to feed the anvil) produced this beauty. With the death of this prospect, any hope of rain moving in here later in the evening went six feet under as well.

The anvil below looks fairly close, but if you go to the U of A time lapse, this anvil comes onto the field of view at about 7:40 PM, and you can get an idea of how much farther the anvil below had to go to be above the Cat Mountains.

For the second day in a row there were virtually no Cumulus clouds over our Catalina mountains, a real disappointment. But, undaunted, Mr. Cloud Maven person will anticipate Cumulus clouds over the Catalinas once again today, following in the same wrong footsteps of the past two days, and will again foretell that these will be ones that will rise high enough to “glaciate”, that is, have their tops convert from liquid droplets to ice crystals.

The result of this “glaciation” process is something coming out the bottom of the cloud, a dense shaft of precip, as a Cumulus cloud transforms itself into a Cumulonimbus one.

————-

Science Story: This is always an exciting sight and a process that Mr. Cloud Maven person (MCMP) spent some 25 odd years studying with a highly instrumented aircraft at the University of Washington but couldn’t quite figure out how it happened. In fact, MCMP (with his lab chief co-author) were criticized royally (i.e., Blyth and Latham 1998) for what they did report over the years (“royally”; they were two British guys, but working in the US). We “Reply” to their comments in quite substantial fashion in the same issue (Reply to Blyth and Latham)!

BTW, real scientists, like Alan Blyth, are still working on this problem; how clouds glaciate. Its pretty amazing when you think of it. These days the Japanese (asteroid dust Science-2011) can send a spacescraft to an asteroid named, Itokawa, land on it, pick up some dust grains, and bring them back, a process taking more than 10 years, but we really don’t know completely how ice forms in a cloud!

————-

Back to the local scene:

once again we have our high surface dewpoints, in the upper 50s (58 F here in Catalina) and even 62 F now at Douglas. So the bottom of our atmosphere is OK for Cumulus. And once again, we have an overcast of mid-level Altocumulus clouds. A problem yesterday was the extreme dryness above that surface moist layer, and below the Altocumulus one, a shallow moist layer that was completely obliterated after the sun came up and the dry one and razor-thin moist one mixed together. Its not so dry today above the low humid layer today, and so Cumulonimbus clouds should be able to develop in the area.

Besides the models told me so. Have been a little sloppy and a little, well, arrogant, about reading the early morning sky absent more information.

Here’s today’s TUS sounding, from the Wyoming Cowboys, so you can see for yourself.

The End, unless I find out I am going to be wrong again when more data comes in a couple of hours.

Clouds disappointed yesterday

Clouds weren’t really what I expected yesterday, though they were exactly what the artificial brains of weather models with their millions-billions of calculations expected (no rain around). So I don’t feel much like talking clouds today. Perhaps they need a break.

Continuing anyway, I REALLY expected, with those early Altocumulus clouds and high dewpoints around these parts (high 50s in the morning), to see a nice Cumulonimbus on the Catalinas in the afternoon yesterday, along with a couple of rumbles, too. Especially with -10 C at 500 mb (at about the level where those morning Altocumulus were located). That’s an extremely low temperature for July at that level and suggests a lot of instability!

But it was about +10 C about 5 feet above that level–that is, there was a TREMENDOUS inversion just above that low temperature–you may have inferred that from all the flat, deeper Cumulus tops around, ones that tried to stick up into that inversion. I’m exaggerating some here, but it was a very strong inversion that was present. Also, the air was continuing to dry out during the day yesterday, not moisten up as the day went on until very late and I had not noticed that in the water vapor imagery since I didn’t look at it. Bad meteorologist!

Check out the movie for yesterday from our U of AZ weather folk:

Yesterday’s movie has some interesting aspects. Those morning Altocumulus clouds seem to be shimmering as waves in the air move through them. Second, there was locust outbreak, or maybe a bee swarm, that was captured in this time lapse movie. Its pretty funny. They seem pretty upset; maybe like I was at the lack of clouds.

Lastly, right at the end, toward sunset, you will see MORE Altocumulus clouds moving in, but now from the east (or right to left), a completely different direction of movement than those morning Altocumulus. That later movement represents a new surge of moist air into the Catalina region, and Mr. Cloud Maven is once again, undaunted by earlier error, and the many before that, will anticipate a Cumulonimbus on the Catalinas THIS afternoon. Damn the models, full speed ahead! Well, those models ARE indicating a greater chance of rain around, too.

Now, it may not rain here, but I really want to see one over there on Ms. Mt. Lemmon. A day in July without a Cumulonimbus and thunder rumble is pretty tough to take!

Going to Biosphere 2 this afternoon, though if there is too much excitement outside, I won’t be able to go in.

Below, yesterday morning’s Altocumulus perlucidus at -10 C. Notice that even though those clouds were well below freezing, that ice is not forming (which would be seen as fine trails of virga).

Sightings; Cumulonimbus clouds and aerosols

Novella-sized caption below (WP caption function not working again!):

“Educational module:

the air seems clean yesterday but its not.

Those whitish, cloud free areas represent thermals that

have risen from the ground and while cooling and rising,

the relative humidity has been rising to near saturarion.

At the same time, some of the aerosol particles inside

that rising plume, ones called “cloud condensation nuclei,

have been fattening up like a hot dog champion eater with

50 hot dogs in front of him/her because those particles

are “deliquescing”, absorbing water vapor before the actual

saturation point is reached, and water molecules form on

the particle. This is particularly noticeable when the

humidity rises above 60% in the rising plume. Those

whitish areas represent ghost clouds, ones about to form,

though they may not quite make it. If you are a glider pilot,

as many of you are out there, you will be heading for these

hazy puffs knowing that they are plumes of rising air that will

keep you afloat. Is this a caption or a novel?

Caption: 7:32 PM. One of the great sights in Arizona at

sunset, a remaining Cumulonimbus (capillatus) cloud

struggling to keep going as the sun disappears over the horizon.

This one was particularly filled with portent since it was

moving in this direction indicating “better” moist air for those

kinds of clouds would be over us tomorrow (today).

Below, taken at 3:46 PM, the “picture of the day” showing the typical non-eventful clouds over the Catalina mountains. Don’t think today will be this quiet.