Another “awesome” display of lightning flashed over the Cat Mountains east of Catalina early last evening, accompanied by gusty northerly winds, but that fierce thunderstorm couldn’t make it over those mountains, but rather died on the way. Only sprinkles occurred here, giving us yet another “trace” of rain day. Kind of discouraging after the prior night’s nice little rain of 0.18 inches, one that also occurred after night fall. But as we know, weather never repeats itself exactly.
———-Yesterday’s major cloud mystery———–
Many of you, I am sure noticed the remarkable cloud scene below, perhaps as you came out of the house, or during your lunch hour, and likely puzzled over it the rest of the day. I, too, wondered how that little dot of cloud got so separated from its early Mt. Lemmon spawning grounds and brothers and sisters hovering over the mountain, trying to grow up. Notice that it seems like a puff of cloud, ragged on the bottom, a little rounder on the top. Could it be the top of a “smokestack” Cumulus that somehow we missed, whose connecting parts to Mt. Lemmon have evaporated? Its an important question that we shall try to answer.
12:51 PM. Cumulus humilis and fractus begin gathering over Mt. Lemmon. Recall, btw, that this kind of cloud scene began a little after 8 AM on the thundery day before, for perspective–we’re late here, not a good sign of active rain day.)
To solve this mystery, Mr. (he’s not a doctor, nor does he have an advanced degree of any kind!) Cloud Maven Person went to the U of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Meteorology and looked at yesterday’s cloud movie. These are top rated movies, and, if you’ve ever looked at them, you can understand why clouds and what the weather does can be hard to predict; locations of storms missed, etc. No computer model can see all the remarkable little cloud wiggles, sudden comings and goings, that you see in these movies, thus introducing slight errors that tend to degrade those model predictions over time. And lots of the time, the locations of the clouds at the outset of the model run is even markedly off! Below, yesterday’s complex cloud movie linked for you in the word, “Movie”:
You will barely be able to read the time of the day in the lower left hand corner, which adds further complexity in solving this problem, but if you look closely you will see that a minute or two BEFORE the shot above at 12:51 PM, and slender tower rose up from Ms. Lemmon, its trunk evaporating almost immediately, but the last thing to evaporate was the little puff above that sped westward toward Samaniego Ridge.
In conclusion, I think we have solved yesterday’s cloud mystery.
——————-end of cloud mystery module——————–
That such a cloud could shoot up and out from Mt. Lemmon like this one did was a sign that there was great environment for much larger clouds, at least in the fall of the temperature with height (lapse rate), but that more humidity was needed to keep them from evaporating as they tried to grow. It wasn’t long before the hopeful sign of a Cumulonimbus calvus (anvil not formed yet) appeared beyond the Catalina Mountains, and the chance of evening rains, as the models had predicted, began to look better.
2:05 PM. Cumulonimbus calvus top makes its appearance to the SE, likely 70 miles or more, and hours away.
5:33 PM. Threatening clouds and thunderheads were now moving into the Oracle/Mammoth areas, and the chances of a significant rain here were growing by the minute as major radar echoes approached from the east. I remember thinking how how happy I was that such a dreadful Cumulus day over the Catalinas was now going to be reversed by this onslaught of storms as the U of AZ model had predicted.
7:05 PM. Thus far, only “debris” clouds from the thunderstorms upwind had crossed the Catalinas, spreading westward toward the setting sun. But those dark clouds did provide the contrast as the setting sun lit up the Catalinas for this great scene.
7:22 PM. Multiple layers of clouds provide multiple sunset colors.
7:32 PM. That extra brightness in the center of the photo, if you noticed it, is called a “sun pillar”. Its due to a fall of plate-like, hexagonal ice crystals that fall face down and that enhances the reflected toward us. The sun set exactly below this bright spot. For a bit more on sun pillars, go here.
What seems to be ahead…..
The U of AZ mod hasn’t been updated as of this hour….so, being in a hurry, we’ll do an “SOP” forecast (you have to see Bob for a good one. I like Bob, too) but we have plenty of lower level humidity, and there appears to be a weak upper trough passing over us today, and that “should” help to collect storms into larger masses instead of just isolated ones. Oops, let me not forget our TUS NWS computer forecast for the Catalina area, too.
So, today might be the last day for a reasonably good chance of a major rain here in Catalina. After today, and for the next two weeks, the circulation pattern is not so great for summer storms, according to the NOAA spaghetti factory plots, seen here.
It seems more and more like we’re doomed to a drier than normal summer, darn it. (Missed those first great storms, too, that started our summer rain season.)
That’s about it for my cloud world. Camera will be ready for the black shafts of summer today!
6:22 AM. Ridin’ tall on “Jake” yesterday morning with riding pal, Nora B, on “Dreamer.” It was a pretty dusty ride1 due to all the dust in the air, to be redundant. We set out around dawn. It was a ride amid the sad summer grasses and weeds we now have due to the “furnace” weather of late. Can they come back with a some decent rains? Hope so.
Now for some clouds, ones that spurted up awful fast yesterday. Movie here; still shots chronicling your cloud day below:
8:42 AM. First cloud shred forms over Ms. Mt. Lemmon. This early shred is a good sign for large buildups to develop early in the day.
10:06 AM. The vertical rise of this small cloud is another good sign that the atmosphere is “cocked” so to speak, to produce large storms. Got pretty excited and hopeful seeing this tower shoot up from The Lemmon.
11:04 AM. The top of this Cumulus congestus overhang began to show ice about this time and a few drops fell out here.
11:34 AM. First cloud to ground strike just about the time of this photo and came down from the overhang directly down in the center of the photo to that slanting ridge lline. Now here’s an example where the LTG strike is not where you might think it should be, perhaps closer to the lower cloud base to the right. Sometimes when the tops lean over as much as they did yesterday (see prior photo), it has seemed like you can get some rogue strikes way out away from the rain areas upwind. And so great caution is required when you see our tops streak out away from the main body of the rain and lower cloud; you might think you’re safer than you really are under that non-precipitating overhang.
2:01 PM. Cumulus congestus top with ice top tip just behind it, and an converting-to-ice Cumulonimbus calvus (“bald”) top in the upper center. Can you pick them out? Next photo has writing on it for clarity.2:01 PM. Same photo as above but with writing on it.
3:43 PM. Scene of the day, the “waterfall” near the Charouleau Gap. Lightning was extremely frequent, and thunder continuous.
3:52 PM. A similar dump hit Marana Avra Valley with one gauge reporting 1.97 inches!
Today?
U of AZ mod run from last night, surprisingly, has showers around today, but nothing near Catalina. Hmmmm. Can that be right? Hope not. In fact, I am going to wish that it is totally wrong! Don’t forget to check out what Bob says, too. He’s our resident expert on storms, and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, a huge honor.
Tomorrow will be better, the model sez.
———————-
1“Dusty Ride”? Hmmmm. Once again, another great name for a western singer–I can’t believe how many I have come up with! “Dusty” this, “Dusty” that! The creativity just goes on and on.
With a high in Sutherland Heights/Catalina yesterday of 107 F, maybe fully baked is more appropriate, though “half-baked” does align itself pretty well with this blog. It was so hot in TUS yesterday, the venerable U of AZ sounding plot, constructed on a “Skew-T” diagram, was not able to capture the surface temperature at the time of the balloon launch in Tucson. Don’t see that too often. Looks like the horizontal scale (abscissa) needs to be extended to 50 or 60 C (113 to 131 F). Hahaha, sort of. See below:
The 5 PM AST balloon sounding launched from Tucson yesterday. Note white line for the temperature and how it goes “out of bounds.” Penalty!
The moist air surge predicted by the models yesterday, the one rushing up the Gulf of Cal, is happening, though maybe at a walk or trot instead of the “gallup” foretold by the models. So, if you get up and notice that the dewpoint is over 50 now, that why; you’re experiencing the rush of humidity from tropical sources.
And with the half-baked air by afternoon, why it makes sense to anticipate a full-growed (as we westerners would say) Cumulonimbus cloud in the vicinity today, yay. BTW, if would be even that bit hotter without all the haze due to dust, and maybe some smoke, since the sun was dimmed that bit glaring down at us through that stuff.
Your clouds from yesterday, such as they were:
1:40 PM. As humilis as humilis can get. Prescott was having a thunderstorm at this time, and you can’t even see its top, that’s how bad the visibility was. (Of course, in LA, or Bakersfield, yesterday would have been a stupendously clear day!)
7:00 PM. The clouds filled in a little toward sunset, and some anvil Cirrus from Cumulonimbus clouds in the western part of the State, blocked the sun as it set.
100% chance that those of us domiciled in Catalinaland will hear thunder today. Rain-cooled air blowing at us? Yep. Rain? Maybe, 60% chance at my house; 100 percent chance between the Catalinas and the Tortolitas up toward Park Links Road somewhere. Namely, there will be TSTMS, but exactly where no one knows. Clouds should pile up early on the Cats in more or less a line during the late morning, early afternoon, then as yesterday drift off toward the west-northwest, taking their rain with them, spawning more developments. The summer rain season begins anew!
Check out this for the depiction of hourly rain situations predicted for today, courtesy of our U of AZ Weather Department.
4:10 PM. Coming at you! Something like this, what we saw yesterday, should happen today, except they should blossom into full Cumulonimbus clouds. Dewpoints are up! Surf’s up! (Somewhere.)7:32 PM. Nice sunset consisting of Altocumulus cumulogenitus clouds (originated with those mountain Cumulus clouds earlier in the day).
Many of you are starved to see some low clouds rather than a few Cirrus or Altocumulus clouds under a blazing sun, about 27 million degrees F in the core, only 10,000 F at the surface we call the “photosphere”, what we see up there. (And you think its hot in Arizona!)
So, I thought I would provide some relief in this time lapse video of the clouds of Seattle from yesterday, as provided by the University of Washington’s Weather Department. You’ll see some great Stratus, maybe some Stratocumulus, and later, little bulging Cumulus that rise up to as much as 5,000 feet (!) above the ground. Maybe some of your neighbors are temperature refugees in Seattle now, so it will be great to see what they are experiencing and logging in their cloud diaries. And, we’ll be checking this day when they get back, for sure.
The current dry spell begins to fade as the days go by now.. In the meantime, since this site is mainly for the display of pretty clouds and not of any other value, here are some shots from the past few days. Have left the captions for you to formulate in silence.
Below, way below, are the 24 h totals for yesterday’s storm from all of the Pima County ALERT gauges, in case you missed seeing them. The south portions of Catalina got the most of that storm around here, while the north portion was “nil-ed”, as in recent, “one-nil”, soccer talk. A real oddity is that the Catalina Mountain stations in this network saw no rain.
I’ve posted these amounts instead of the link to them because its a “rolling archive”, constantly being updated, and so before long, yesterday’s amazing storm will be disappearing as the hours go by while you’re still sleeping, making brain-clearing coffee, etc.
SH (Sutherland Heights got only 0.01 inches, an embarrassing and disheartening total when you think of how close the heavy rain was. Just south of Golder Ranch Drive on Swan, an inch was recorded, and for a few minutes yesterday morning with that cold south wind blowing, low scudding clouds just above the mesquite trees, and frequent lightning strikes just to the east, it appeared the bottom was about to drop on us Sutherlanders.
It was a rare event, not so much in the rain amounts, but rather the time that it exploded over the TUS region; after sunrise through about noon, after which the forces of dissipation took over. For a great look at this development, go here to the U of AZ time lapse film for yesterday.
As we know here, that period between sunrise and noon is USUALLY one of cloud dissipation; nighttime clouds thin and clear, whilst new Cumulus clouds begin to arise over the high mountains. I am going to link to Bob Maddox’s analysis if this event when he is done with it later this morning. You see, Dr. Bob is one of the world’s premier experts on convection and the organization of Cumulonimbus clouds into big clusters. It would be good for you to read what he has to say. Saves me a lotta work, too. Also, he has some great graphics.
On the other hand, Mr. Cloud Maven person’s experience, as a Pac NWesterner in airborne cloud research at the U of WA, is limited to a tremendous, I tell you, amount of flying into itty-bitty Cumulonimbus clouds that top out at or below only about 12,000 feet above sea level. We especially liked them if their tops were not colder than -10 C1. For comparison, yesterday’s powerful storms likely topped out at 50,000 feet and had top temperatures lower than -60 C! Well, really, there’s no comparison.
Catalina Area 1010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Golder Ranch Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke 1020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Oracle Ranger Stati approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle 1040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dodge Tank Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway 1050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cherry Spring approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap 1060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pig Spring approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap 1070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 Cargodera Canyon northeast corner of Catalina State Park 1080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CDO @ Rancho Solano Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke 1100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 CDO @ Golder Rd Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road
Santa Catalina Mountains 1030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Oracle Ridge Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak 1090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mt. Lemmon Mount Lemmon 1110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CDO @ Coronado Camp Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp 1130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Samaniego Peak Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge 1140 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dan Saddle Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge 2150 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 White Tail Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station 2280 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Green Mountain Green Mountain 2290 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Marshall Gulch Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch
Santa Catalina Foothills 2090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 TV @ Guest Ranch Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Guest Ranch 2100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 DEQ Swan Swan Road at Calle del Pantera 2160 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sabino @ USFS Dam Sabino Creek at USFS Dam 2170 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ventana @ Sunrise Ventana Canyon Wash at Sunrise Road 2190 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Al-Marah near El Marah on Bear Canyon Road 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 AC Wash @ TV Bridge Agua Caliente Wash at Tanque Verde Road 2210 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 Catalina Boosters Houghton Road 0.1 miles south of Catalina Highway 2220 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Agua Caliente Park Agua Caliente Park 2230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 El Camino Rinconado El Camino Rinconado 0.5 miles north of Reddington Road 2240 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Molino Canyon Mt Lemmon Highway near Mile Post 3 2390 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 Finger Rock @ Skyli Finger Rock Wash at Sunrise Road
Redington Pass Area 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Park Tank Redington Pass, 0.8 miles south of Park Tank 2030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Italian Trap Redington Pass, 0.7 miles east southeast of Italian Trap Tank 2040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 White Tank Redington Road near White Tank 2050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Bellota Ranch Road Bellota Ranch Road near Redington Road 2070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 TV @ Chiva Tank Tanque Verde Wash 0.5 miles south of Chiva Tank 2080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Alamo Tank Redington Road near Alamo Well
Rincon Mountains 4100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manning Camp Manning Camp in the Rincon Mountains 4110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rincon Creek Rincon Creek at X-9 Ranch
Greater Tucson 2110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TV @ TV Road Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Road 2120 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TV @ Sabino Cyn Rd Tanque Verde Wash at Sabino Canyon Road 2300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 Well D-37 Rosewood Street west of Harrison Road 2310 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 Well E-23 Rancho El Mirador north of Broadway Boulevard 2320 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Beverly Well C-51 Beverly Avenue at Hawthorne Street 2330 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 Kolb Boosters Kolb Road at Golf Links 2350 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 Rillito @ Dodge Rillito Creek at Dodge Boulevard 2360 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 Rillito @ La Cholla Rillito Creek at La Cholla Boulevard 2370 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Alamo @ Glenn Alamo Wash at Glenn Street 2380 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 DEQ Ruthraff Ruthrauff Road at La Cholla Boulevard 4160 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 E-8 Irvington Road near Pantano Road 4180 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 Pantano @ Houghton Pantano Wash at Houghton Road 6040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 Santa Cruz@Valencia Santa Cruz River at Valencia Road 6180 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 ArroyoChico@Cherry Arroyo Chico at Cherry Street 6190 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 Arroyo Chico@Randol Arroyo Chico at Randolph Way 6230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 Ajo Detention Basin Tucson Diversion Channel at Ajo Detention Basin 6240 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 DEQ Cntry Clb Country Club Road near Columbia Street 6250 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Craycroft@Golf Link Craycroft Road at Golf Links Road 6260 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 Tucson Electric Pow Irvington Road at Belvedere Avenue 6270 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.47 Pima Air Museum Valencia Road at Pima Air Museum
Southern Tucson Area 6200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 Summit Elementary Summit Street at Epperson Lane 6210 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Franco @ Swan Franco Wash at Swan Road 6220 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PC Fairgrounds Houghton Road at Dawn Road 6280 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 Wilmot Wilmot Road 2 miles south of Old Vail Connection Road 6290 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 Corona Sahuarita Road at Sewage Treatment Plant
Altar/Avra Valley Area Area 6370 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Arivaca Las Guijas Mountains near Arivaca 6380 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 Altar Wash @ Hwy 28 Altar Wash at Highway 286 6410 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 Diamond Bell Diamond Bell near Stagecoach Road at Killarney Avenue 6420 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 Brawley@Three Point Brawley Wash at Highway 86 6430 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 Vahala Park Wade Road at Los Reales 6440 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 Brawley@Milewide Brawley Wash at Milewide Road 6450 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 Hilltop Rd Hilltop Road at Riveria Road 6460 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 Picture Rocks CC Picture Rocks Community Center 6470 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 Michigan @ Calgary Michigan Street at Calgary Avenue
Marana/Oro Valley Area 1200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 1.06 CDO @ Ina Road Cañada Del Oro Wash at Ina Road 1230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 Oro Valley PW Calle Concordia at Calle El Milagro 1240 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.17 Moore Rd Moore Road at La Cholla 1250 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 Pima Wash @ Ina Pima Wash at Ina Road 1260 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.89 Big Wash Big Wash at Rancho Vistoso Boulevard 1270 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 CDO @ Big Wash Cañada Del Oro Wash near Oracle Road 6020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.02 Santa Cruz @ Ina Santa Cruz River at Ina Road 6110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 Avra Valley Airpark Santa Cruz River 0.5 miles east of Sanders Road
Vail Area 4220 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 Rancho Del Lago approximately 1.8 miles northwest of Vail 4250 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pantano @ Vail Pantano Wash 1.5 miles southeast of Colossal Cave Road 4270 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 Salcido Place 6 miles north-northwest of Mescal 4280 Site temporarily removed due to road construction Cienega Crk @ I-10 Cienega Creek at Interstate 10 4290 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 Mescal 2 miles northwest of Mescal 4310 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Davidson Canyon Davidson Canyon Wash 0.25 miles south of Interstate 10 4320 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Empire Peak Empire Peak 4410 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Haystack Mtn. Haystack Mountain
Green Valley Area 6050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 Santa Cruz@Continen Santa Cruz River at Continental Road 6060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Santa Cruz@Conoa Santa Cruz River at Elephant Head Road 6080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Santa Cruz@Tubac Santa Cruz River at Tubac 6310 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 Keystone Peak Keystone Peak 6320 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 Tinaja Ranch near Caterpillar Proving Ground 6330 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 Anamax Mission Road north of Continental Road 6350 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Elephant Head Butte near Elephant Head Butte 6390 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Florida Canyon Florida Canyon Work Center
Our NWS data are here; click on Regional and State Summaries (“latest”).
Since, like me, you have neighbors in the area that measure rainfall, but don’t report anywhere, you’ll want to call them up and list those amounts as well.
Now that we’ve rounded up about as much rainfall data as we can, its time for some cloud photos, a lot of them to tell yesterday’s story:
8:12 AM. Nothin’ much going on, two layers evident. A higher layer of Altocumulus perlucidus (top right), and a lower deck of scattered Cumulus, not likely formed from rising currents from the ground, but triggered by a general upward motion of the air, enhanced over the mountains.8:12 AM also, looking SSW toward Tucson and Pusch Ridge. The two layers are evident here as well, and towers in the lower layer are evident. Still, not much going on in the radar at this time.By 9:24 AM, the “explosion” was well underway as those turrets began to group into a huge cluster spewing heavy rain and lightning. But would it make Catalina? It seemed to be moving parallel to us and not toward Catalina, spreading westward toward Marana and the south part of Oro Valley. Notice the difference between this shot and the one above.10:10 AM. The storm continues to march across west Tucson and toward Marana. Just a hint of a cloud bank on the side toward us, something that might be fueled by outflow spreading north and northeastward that might cause the storm to grow in our direction.
11:01 AM. Looking to SW toward Marana and more promising as SW wind blowing out from storm causes new Cumulus bases to form on its northeast side! But, with the overall coolness of the morning, will those bases grow up to be Cumulonimbus clouds? Gettin’ closer; hopes risin’.11:14 AM. SW wind has hit, temperature dropped by about 5 degrees into the low 70s (!). Oregon visitor next door says he feels COLD! But, look at that base! So nice, so firm, so fully packed! Bound to cut loose with a big dump, and those bases like that are propagating in this direction, borne on that SW push of wind. Note scruffy Stratus fractus clouds lining the Catalinas, brought about by that surge of cooler air near the ground that resulted in condensation at the top of that wind layer. The cloud base above it is due to the lower wind layer lifting en masse, the air its undercutting. Not described so well me thinks.11:20 AM. Sure enough, a cloudburst results from the new firm bases! Something around 2 inches in an hour fell in Marana at this time, and, overall, its getting still closer to Catalina!11:32 AM. Frequent cloud to ground strikes are occurring east of Catalina, and the low, scudding clouds of the outflow winds have covered the sky. This was such a dramatic scene. Looking S, the heavy rain, from yet another new cell that formed above the cold outflow wind over and just east of the south part of Catalina. The pounding rain that produced an inch only about a mile and a half south of Sutherland Heights is falling now.
Well, we here in Sutherland Heights know what happened next. As quickly as the sky had deteriorated to a low overcast with plenty of lightning, the low clouds disappeared and the rain area began to recede to the south and west, dissipating slowly as it did. It was a truly horrible sight, not worthy of a photo.
Ironically, something in the way of the little Cumulonimbus clouds CMP flew in developed late in the afternoon, and presented an example of ice formation at temperatures only a little below freezing (tops likely around -10 C). Here is that pretty cloud over the Catalinas.
4:45 PM. A small Cumulonimbus capillatus cloud over Catalinas. At least the storm had cleared out the hazy air of the prior day.
The day concluded with all the Cumulus clouds having disappeared, but leaving enough residual middle and high clouds for a decent sunset photo.
7:30 PM. A dramatic, if ultimately disappointing day for us here in the Heights, finishes with a nice sunset.
The End.
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1Had to do with long-term studies of the theories and lab results concerning the mystery of ice formation in clouds with top temperatures higher than -10 C. Its common, but is quite complex, and not yet completely understood. So, we avoided bigger, colder-topped clouds as much as we could. BTW, while it may seem incredible that ice formation is not completely understood, but let us remember that the so-called Standard Model of particle physics is also incomplete. How many years have those guys been studying that? Its embarrassing, really.
A rare day for Catalinians: five thundering cells drifted off Ms. Mt. Lemmon and its environs and over Catalina and Oro Valley yesterday providing lots of local excitement. The Sutherland Heights district got 0.46 inches, and early on, was leading Mt. Lemmon and the Samaniego Peak gauges because the cells did not drop their loads until over the foothills and the Valley. Below, the exciting day reprised:
12:52. Cloud street drifts off the Catalinas over Catalina. Because the Cumulus clouds didn’t seem to be going anywhere, were so modest in the afternoon, rather than thundering before noon, I was kind of sad, disappointed.1:46 PM. But, then when suddenly those clouds began erupting upward, reaching the ice-forming level, and rain falling out, I was so happy. Started raining on me a few minutes after this shot. You can see the slight initial rainshaft to the right of center on the foothills of the Catalina Mountains. 1:51 PM. Rain approaches Sutherland Heights/Catalina from the east. The little guys up there began to thunder as well. Several cloud to ground strikes in that area you see in the photo! Amazing how small a lightning producing cloud can be here sometimes. However, “thunder1” only dropped 0.06 inches here; more fell a little south. Still, it was so great to see measurable rain fall!
2:11 PM. Remarkably, and hopefully, after thunder1 went by, it looked like another cell might drift off the Catalinas into Catalina soon afterward!
2:25 PM. Thunder2 underway on Sam Ridge. Samaniego Peak recorded 0.94 inches yesterday. More cloud to ground strikes here, some rather distant, a mile or two, from this shaft, so watch it when you’re watching it. (Professional viewer; do not attempt.)
3:58 PM. Thunder3 rolls off the Catalinas! This was much larger than Thunder1 and 21, and drenched the south side of Catalina, and into Oro Valley with rains of around half an inch. The lightning was awesome.4:02 PM, just FOUR minutes later! Thunder3 in full dump mode, lightning galore!4:14 PM. Small crowd of local lightning viewers. On the left, a viewer is using the “cushion technique” to block lightning. It is NOT effective; this is an urban legend. This cannot be emphasized enough.
5:10 PM. A remarkable Thunder4 formed on the Catalinas and headed toward Catalina! I could not believe it!
6:07 PM. If there was a downside to the rain, it was that dusty floodwaters (another great name for a western singer) began to impact dirt roads. Note sign at right…
7:29 PM. The day ended with a great rosy glow (another great name for a singer!) on the northwestern horizon, but it wasn’t the end of the thundering herd, was it? Nope. FQT LTG was only an hour or so away. Now that was really was amazing, that Thunder5, developing near and rolling off the Cat Mountains early last evening. What a great day it was after appearing to be a disappointing one during the late morning and early afternoon. To reprise the whole day: see movie.
Well, C-M person has told enough stories about past weather for today, so shutting down here at 4:42 AM. Dewpoints are still very high, mods expecting more thundering herds in the Catalina/Oro Valley area today.
Have camera ready for some great shaft shots, those black, straight sided ones that go all the way to the ground. If you can, try to get the shot just before the bottom drops out; the two make a great, dramatic couplet for friends and family to enjoy I find.
Farther ahead…..
A disturbing, possibly week long dry spell has been showing up in the models, beginning the 17th, lasting through the 25th or so. Has to do with a giant summertime upper level trough set to bring those record low temps to the upper Midwest beginning in the next few days. The NW flow on the backside of this trough is foretold to extend into Arizona, thus, drying things out and pushing the tropical air southward. May see some hot days and only small Cu and maybe very isolated, distant Cumulonimbus clouds during that time. Ugh.
On the bright side, spaghetti says, and with a lot of confidence, that the dry spell will be eroded and the normal wetness will return after the 25th or so. I think you can see that here, now that you’re an expert spaghetti consumer:
NOAA “spaghetti” plot, valid for 1700 AST, July 26th. Looks great for storms!
I was marveling at this title, one that just came out of nowhere, using the idea of a superhero and a standard measure of how bubbly the clouds might be. I really don’t know how it happened, but there it was…
Think of “supercloud” as a Cumulonimbus cloud, those giants of the cloud kingdom, ones that can top out near 70,000 feet above sea level and can have UPDRAFTS as high as 80-100 mph in their very rare and strongest forms (where nothing can fall out, of course). An armored T-28 research aircraft operated by the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology flew through one of those superclouds; went up on its own some 5,000 feet in a minute!
Well, of course, clouds in Arizona are never THAT bad (or good) depending on your viewpoint, but today, according to millions of calculations in the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster, the Cumulonimbus clouds of today will be more bouyant than the ones we had yesterday. We get that indication from last night’s 11 PM AST model run where it calculates something called “Convective Available Potential Energy”, or CAPE. Today’s CAPE will be about two or three times larger than yesterday’s, according to the model. Orangutang1. A first test of that U of AZ model’s prediction will be in this morning’s Tucson balloon sounding, which needs to replicate the model’s prediction for that time of day to have confidence in it. (Will have to wait for quite awhile here while our TUS sounding; its still on its journey upward now at 5:11 AM.)
Predicted TUS sounding for 5 AM AST by the U of AZ supermodel which downsizes that output from the NOAA WRF-GFS one. The red, dashed line delineates, with some terrible assumptions though, like the air isn’t mixing with the air around and above it, nevertheless its very useful. The amount of CAPE isn’t much here, only “500”, though its pretty good for 5 AM AST. Supposed to be well over “1,000” by this afternoon!
The TUS ballon sounding (“rawinsonde”) for 5 AM AST this morning (July 13th). Ooops! Not as much CAPE suggested here as in the model, though the definition is somewhat different from the model (which is Mixed layer CAPE, or MCAPE).
So, what does all this gobbledygook mean? Casting aside the fact that the actual sounding is not quite as unstable as our local model was predicting due to writer’s “confirmation bias”, a killer of good science, we should have sooner2, bigger dumps overall in the area, and happily, more of them. Thunder on Ms. Lemmon before noon will be a very good sign that the model has captured today pretty well.
Yesterday’s clouds and a stupefying sunset scene to the east
7:56 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus (cellular area) and opacus (solid gray areas). 1:55 PM. First moderate-sized Cumulonimbus arose just before this, vicinity of Oracle. 2:16 PM. Pretty typical of yesterday’s rainshafts. Sprinkled (its NOT drizzle!) here in Sutherland Heights after this. We get mad when we think of people calling sprinkles, “drizzle” as you know, and it just kind of came there.) My apologies. 7:19 PM. Glorious coloration of our fabulous Catalina Mountains, specifically, the lower portions of Samaniego Ridge. 7:27 PM. A glorious halo effect created by a former Cumlonimbus anvil, a few minutes later. This was an incredible scene. Was lucky to be out and capture it.
The End.
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1An unexpected word has been inserted as a reader check. Is anybody still reading this? Techno-language causes droopy eyelids, makes people want to give up reading altogether, kids to fall behind in their STEM work. Its quite a powerful effect.
2I have a some relatives and friends in Oklahoma that root for the U of O Sooners. I will be rooting for sooners today, too.
Its always nice to know that someone around you got an inch when you only got a trace; builds character because you’re glad for THEM and not moaning about a rain miss or Ms. Rain, 2014.
So, that’s the kind of day it was yesterday. Thunder on the north side of The Lemmon by early afternoon on for a an hour or so, with that associated rain shield/anvil passing north of us–0.98 inches fell at Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge, BTW.
Later, big, fat Cumulus starting to line up to the north of us, as they often do, and then exploded into strong storms with good outflows in the middle of the afternoon; black columns of rain pounding down in the desert just north of Saddlebrooke. Certainly an inch or more fell out there in the core of that storm.
So, its “great” to think of desert critters and vegetation near us getting hammered with water in this droughty time while we only got a little baby sprinkle overnight; the best model we have again overestimating the strength of a an evening rain band that didn’t materialize. Got a couple of layers of clouds, but only a little baby trace, to continue to emphasize some character building disappointment.
Showers galore in the afternoons and overnight for the next three days. Monday looks to be have the wettest potential according to the U of AZ mod, today, Saturday, the least. Maybe there will be a Catalina surprise today, though. Clouds ballooning off The Lemmon and environs are supposed to trail out over Catalina today, not so much to the north as they did yesterday, so, remnants of early Cumulonimbus clouds that are locked to the mountain in the late morning and early afternoon, may bring rain here before they die completely.
Then there is always the chance on these days that our real diurnal rainfall maximum, the late afternoon and evening hours, will yet produce a dump. Its gotta happen one of these next three days….
The cloud story for yesterday
8:21 AM. 12:19 PM. 1:26 PM. 1:35 PM. First ice. 1:35 PM. Close up of ice fall out (whitsh haze in center clearing). 2:00 PM. Thunder on the mountain! 3:15 PM. From the cloud base photo collection. Quite nice for a time; thought there was a turret piling up over ME, but then it began to look tattered, developed bright spots in the middle, and shrank in size, indicating that the updraft feeding it was dying out. 3:21 PM. Thunderstorm trudges across desert north of Saddlebrooke. Outflow winds from the north reached Sutherland Heights about this time, helping, for a time, to cause that cloud base overhead to fatten up for awhile. 7:20 PM. The best parts of our sunsets aren’t always to the west!
Clouds began building early yesterday on the Cat Mountains. Bases initially below Sam Ridge. It was a good sign of a possible “big day” since the lower the cloud bases initially, the more water the clouds will hold compared to a day with bases above Mt. Lemmon.
So, in our CMJ “club”, we look for that moment when clouds to begin form ice above Ms. Mt. Lemmon and her environs as the turrets climb ever higher in the morning and early afternoon sun, log it in our cloud diaries, and maybe compare to other recent days.
9:20 AM. Great portent for great rains. Clouds lining Sam (Samaniego) Ridge! 10:32 AM. Cumulus beginning shooting upward, but tops are far below ice-forming level (around 20 kft above sea level on days like this).
12″24 PM. Turret tops now have ascended to about 20 kft or so.12:28 PM. Same turret a few minutes later. Ice showing (frizzy stuff directly above second car on the road) as droplets evaporate. Unfortunately, those snowflakes, to melt into rain on the way down, have been orphaned from the updraft and are going to fall out into dry air instead of into cloudy air. Few will make it to the ground. That turret to the right has ascended even higher, therefore would be forming ice at this point, and rain to fall shortly. (From the “Not taken while driving collection, BTW). Traffic authorities remind drivers not to take a lot photos while driving.)1:25 PM. An example of the rain that fell from those higher turrets. But again, the top sheared off so that a lot of the rain fell into drier air instead of down through the root of the cloud, and so showers were pretty light.
While CMP was expecting a gigantic blow up any time after this, it only happened in one spot, a sign that the atmosphere was in a suppression mode, that is, was not helping to cluster updrafts below cloud bases yesterday. Those forces can trump great low level humidity, dammitall.
Here’s the ONE behemoth of the many that were expected, based on an eyeball assessment early yesterday:
3:46 PM. Gargantuan Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (has anvil) southwest of Marana Twin Peaks area. Instruction: Estimate 2 inches in the core fall of rain. Overshooting top, barely visible here in the middle of the anvil, indicates extra strong updrafts.7:22 PM. Nice coloration on the Cat Mountains as a cluster of disorganized Cu hover over it, dead anvil over and behind it.
The weather ahead, immediately ahead
Lots of water in the air again today, and since yesterday was a “down day”, caused by some upper level negative feature passing by (often happens AFTER a good day, like the night before last), expect an “up day” today, more showers and thunderstorms. Now, lets see if the U of AZ model says that as well, for support of this SOP (Seat of Pants) forecast…. Yep! Pretty happy right now. Go here to see the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster output for today.
