About real clouds, weather, cloud seeding and science autobio life stories by WMO consolation prize-winning meteorologist, Art Rangno
Oh, me. So much wind, so much bluster, so gigantic aloft, but so little rain. Well, actually none here. Review of troughy’s last day on Sunday, Mom’s Day, where it tried to rain here:
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Yesterday was another great humilis day for you, with quite a phase twist at the end. I am sure most of you out there saw the surprising final touch to a warm day with high-based shallow Cumulus.
Let’s see how close that using that old estimator technique was yesterday by examining the Tucson sounding for 5 PM AST (launched around 3:30 PM, goes up about 1,000 feet a minute). From the Wyoming Cowboys, this:
Wow! LCLP was 515 millibars, just about exactly at 17,000 feet. Also, look how darn cold bases were, almost -10 °C or 14 ° F, tops around -14 °C or just 7 °F, and yet we see no ice…yet.
While waiting for some rain in the days ahead, not backing off that in any way, though models generally have not had any (bad models!), will pass along a horse prank that happened.
Two days in the morning, as I went to fill “Zeus” water tank in the dawn hours, there was something dark at the bottom of it. I thought maybe some poor little animal or bird had drowned in his tank that night. I reached down, and found it was my State Park baseball cap! I had left it on the top of a panel, maybe above the water tank, wasn’t sure, so it likely blew off the panel into the water tank. But then again, I wasn’t sure that Zeus hadn’t put it in there on purpose.
But that was a crazy thought.
As a test, yesterday morning I decided to put the cap back on top of the end of a horse corral panel, but much farther away where it could not possible fall into the tank, just in case Zeus was telling me what he thought of me by dunking my cap.
Here’s what I found when I came back in the afternoon to feed Zeus:
The same scene as the prior morning!
This was SO FUNNY! But it was also endearing,
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It’s been very “West Coasty in the spring” here lately. Cool days, 70s, with do-nothing Stratocumulus splotches all over. I couldn’t take it anymore in SEA, and bailed largely due to the dominance of Stratocumulus as a cloud type there. Yes, I would be termed a “stratophobe.” A lot of us refugees from the West Coast suffer from “latent stratophobia”, and aren’t really running from crime, smog, traffic congestion, or high prices on the West Coast. You can only take so much strato, and I know many of you out there are reaching your limit here as well. You’ve seen enough “June gloom” days throughout the year.
I hate to punish you with more photos of Stratocumulus clouds, but to document yesterday, it has to be done. Concentrate on the scenery below the Stratocumulus in the following photos as a way of calming down. Fortunately today we should see only small Cu, and little Stratocu.
However, early on, those with expert cloud-maven eyes probably noticed the development, if briefly, of shallow Cumulonimbus clouds to our north. Tops really didn’t protrude much above the overall tops of ugh, must I say it again, those Stratocumulus clouds so prevalent elsewhere. Of course, there were some Cumulus, too, most underneath the spreading layer of ugh, Stratocumulus. Hmmm. I like that; “Ugh Stratocumulus.” Everyone would know instantly what that cloud type is! Low, gray, lumpy; nothing really redeeming about it. I’ll try to work around the shots of Stratocu as much as I can.
From IPS MeteoStar’s rendering of our WRF-GFS model output, this:
More troughs pummel the SW into mid-May, but other than bringing fluctuating temperatures and wind, look a bit on the dry side. Dang.
The End.
Day started out as expected, but instead of Cu fluffing up into congestus and Cumulonimbus clouds yesterday as expected, a higher layer of Altocumulus (with ice plumes) filled in the sky indicative of “slab lifting” due to our incoming trough, and with the strengthening winds mixing things all up, the Cu went flat on us. So about three days in a row, the kind of clouds expected didn’t happen. First time this has happened since four days ago.
But, we did have Cumulonimbi in the area, those deeper clouds indicative of the cooling aloft that had occurred during the day, if you noticed the OCNL LTG to the NW-N after dark. Thought, too, for a moment around 8 PM a cell was erupting overhead as sparse large drops fell, always the melted remnant of graupel (soft hail) aloft indicating a Cumulus turret up there, but it didn’t mature into a full blown Cumulonimbus. So, only a trace of rain from all those many sprinkles yesterday afternoon beginning just after 2 PM through about 9 PM. Darn.
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BTW, I must direct your attention to a great new weather site by local U of AZ forecasting expert, Mike. It has gorgeous graphics and will be a real contribution for weather-centric folk.
Mike joins “Bob” in doing some great, professional-style weather discussions for TUS and vicinity, not at all like the ones found here.
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Should see some nice Cu today, though, as our upper puddle of cold air slips away from us. Early birds may have noticed some lingering Cumulonimbus tops to the NW-N at dawn. Probably won’t see any more of those except off in the distance to the N during the day.
Notice that the red lines are in Baja and this strongly suggests troughing (cooler than normal air aloft) in our region. Looks pretty Niño-ish. So, it would appear that we’ll continue to have an occasional blast of cooler days, rather than just a long series of clear, warm days.
Still looking for significant rain next week, between the 6th and 8th, but our best model from last evening’s (00Z, 5 PM AST) global data thinks that rain in AZ will mainly be to our north with little if anything here. However, I have rejected that analysis and am clinging to the thought that at least 0.25 inches will occur in Catalina next week during the aforementioned window. I recommend that you be kind of clingy, too.
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Punctuation: its hard. Not sure about that in the title. Oh, well. Kind of sad that English is my first language, too.
Yesterday was definitely more Stratocumulus-ee (clouds flatter than expected) than anticipated, which hurt since it was foretold here that it would be Cumulus-ee day. And there was but the slightest evidence of any ice around, something that was also expected. So the record of almost always being right on weather and clouds (i.e., >50% of the time) took a hit, which hurt, to repeat something about personal feelings.
Too, with noticeable breezes at times, the sky almost completely overcast at mid-day as well, and the temperature well below 80 °F, it seemed darn COLD for late April.
Today, looking ahead, the air cools over us again as it did two days ago as a puddle of cold air slams down the interior of the West Coast and into AZ, and we should see some nice, photogenic Cumulus/shallow Cumulonimbus this afternoon, and, since the coldest tops will be well below -10 °C, there should be some virga and light showers around. So, another chance today for a little measurable rain here in Catalinaland before April closes out. The jet stream at mid-levels remains south of us, too, a critical aspect for cool season rain in the Great SW.
With more instability today than yesterday, there should be some more sun around compared to yesterday since holes due to downward moving air around the upward moving air in cumuliform clouds will be out there. Looking forward to today!
Still looking for the good rains next week as extra jumbo-for-May trough crashes into Cal from the Pac.
In reverse order, today. They imported that way, and am too lazy to move them all.
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0.02 inches of it, anyway, as the core of the jet stream at 18,000 feet or so passed by Catalina yesterday afternoon. Keep your eye on the orange and reddish streak in these progs from IPS MeteoStar yesterday morning beginning at 5 AM AST and how it slides over us as the clouds began to ice up:
5 AM yesterday. Jet at this level races across central AZ.
11 AM yesterday. Maximum winds getting closer! Tiny Cumulus clouds begin to appear over the Catalinas and on the west to north horizon.
The jet separates deep cold air on the left side, looking downwind, and deep warm air on the south side. The deep warm air prevents Cumulus clouds from getting very deep due to inversions and stable layers where the temperature does not change much with increasing height, or even rises. The temperature at 500 millibars or 18,000 feet above sea level dropped from -17.7 °C to -21.1° C over TUS yesterday between 5 AM and 5 PM, while the temperature about which ice begins to form in our clouds dropped about 400 meters during that time. With the temperatures at the ground rising into the mid-70s as the colder air moved over us, Cumulus clouds deepened, reaching the ice-forming level between 1 and 2 PM.
Also with patterns like this, the cyclonic rotation (vorticity) in the air above us is increasing like mad, and that leads to a gentle upglide motion in the atmosphere, one that also helps cool the air aloft and usually produces sheets of clouds like Cirrus, Altostratus, Altocumulus and NImbostratus. But yesterday the air was too dry for sheet clouds to form.
First ice was noted just after 1 PM. Can you find it?
5 PM yesterday. Just passed! B y this time, Sutherland Heights had 0.02 inches as the tops of Cumulus and Stratocumulus complexes continued to cool and ascend. The sounding from TUS at 5 PM AST (launched about 3:30 PM AST) indicated the coldest tops had reached -20 °C or so, plenty cold enough for ice, virga, and light rain showers. Too bad the bases were so high since we could have had some real rain if they had been lower.
But, we were “lucky” to get that. Even the great U of AZ model had no rain anywhere near us late yesterday afternoon when it fell! THAT does not happen very often.
Looking ahead….today:
Nice Cu, ice, too.
Farther out:
Substantial rains, maybe half an inch or so, still on tap between May 6th-8th as previously foretold here. Yay! May averages 0.38 inches here in Catalina. More rain likely after that episode, too. So an above normal May in rain is pretty much in the bag now. Could be an especially great May, too.
The End.
Partly its because I can’t think of anything else, brain pretty empty, but check this out:
OK, got that “scoop” out…. Here’s the link to NOAA from whence the above map came.
BTW, here’s what a split flow storm looks like as it comes into southern Cal. Man, if it was January or Feb, this would be a real gully washer, a “get the sandbags out” kind of storm. I love this map so much!
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Now a little more on these kinds of crazy ensemble maps (“Lorenz”, as named here, or more known more generally as “spaghetti” plots)
This kind of map was telling us we had rain threats at this time in April and at the end of the month some 10-15 days in advance, so far in advance that media weather folk would likely consider it unprofessional to make such a prediction so far in advance. Since we’re not worried about being unprofessional here, we have leapt into the void! Just go ahead and say things! Get the story out now!
Today a strong upper level trough with precip in the mountains of central and northern AZ will indeed be occurring today and tomorrow as was indicated by those crazy maps so long ago. The hoped for rain here will not occur.
However, the storm near the end of the month, also indicated way back then, looks even stronger than the present one, and it will reach farther south than today’s, and so will not only bring some rain and very cool air to the central and northern AZ mountains, but likely around us, too!
I think you are going to like May!
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I was really happy for everyone out there when the skies were dotted with so many perfect examples of Cumulus humilis. It was like a numismatist finding a perfect Indian head penny. If you were like me, and I suspect you are, you were just going CRAZY taking pictures of those flat little pancake clouds. Those clouds were pretty much limited to about 1,000 feet (300 m) thick at most
Not cold enough for ice in them, of course, since the temperatures at Cumulus cloud tops were only around -3 ° to -5 °C (28 ° to 23 ° F, respectively). Around here, ice USUALLY does not appear in clouds until the temperature is lower than -10 °C at cloud top.
Yesterday began with some light snow falling on Mt Lemmon…well, it was falling downward TOWARD Ms Lemmon, actually. Fell out of some thick Altocumulus clouds up there around where the cloud top temperature is… what? OK, silly question for you, probably lower than -15 °C (5 ° F).
Let’s check the sounding to be sure, remembering that the launch site (University of AZ) was downwind of air flowing from the NW yesterday that went over the Catalinas, so a sounding at the U of AZ might suggest higher temperatures than this cloud was actually at since the air was probably descending before it got there.
Indeed, as just seen by me, the TUS sounding indicates that layer, up around 14 kft above sea level, 11 kft or so above Catalina, not a city, but rather a Census Designated Place or CDP, was “only”at -10 ° C.
I reject that as the temperature of the virga-ing cloud over Ms. Lemmon! Its a little too warm IMO.
By afternoon, the skies over Catalinaland were spotted and dotted with spectacular Cumulis humilis examples. (The littlest shred clouds are Cumulus “fractus.”)
I’ve left the time of the photos off today. After all, there was only one true time yesterday, “perfect humilis time!” or as we like to say, “PHT.” Immerse yourself.
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“BN”, sometimes referred to in the media as the, “Godzilla Niño” of 15-16.
Before, one year ago, the drought status as presented by the National Drought Monitor folks there in Cornhuskerland, Lincoln, NE:
First, a legend, no, not a story, though we could write one, “The Legend of the Ghost Niño of 2015-16“, but rather a guide to the colorful drought intensities on the maps below:
One year ago
Now let us look closely below–you’ll have to–to see what the Big Niño has done to ameliorate drought so far THIS water year (since Oct 1):
Of course, the giant low centers spinning around in the central Pacific sent a stream of large waves over and over again that blasted the Cal coast. That was expected, and verified. But not much else did. Drought should have increased in the Pac NW–recall it was forecast to be drier and warmer due to Niño conditions. Instead, the Pac NW had record amounts of winter rain!
Cal, especially, central and southern were to be slammed. Southern Cal residents were advised to consider purchasing sandbags in one media story last fall. And, of course, we here in AZ are profoundly disappointed; conditions have only improved some in the north part of the State.
Well, of course, there’s not one dry meteorological eye in the house after a bust of this magnitude. And when our best models predicted giant West Coast storms that looked like the kind we were expecting due to the Niño, even though they were 10-15 days out, they seemed sure to happen. CMP, bloated with confirmation bias, was sucked in several times this past winter.
Sure, we knew that Niño correlations with weather are not 1.00, that is, perfect, still, the “signal”, the size of the Niño, was so huge we figured it had to come through with those mighty storms striking the lower West Coast as happened in 1982-83 and 1997-98. Those correlations, as strong as they were, of course, were limited in number since these large events are rare. Those correlations will, let us say in place of cuss words, “degrade.”
Oh, me, what will we say when the next Big Niño appears?
You’re probably pretty excited about the wind and very cold air just ahead. CMP is. And, with the jet stream at 500 mb (18, 000 feet or so–5.5 km above sea level) eventually circumscribing us with its charateristic moist lower region of air, we should just enough moisture for some isolated very light showers, probably just in the Catalinas, during the period of low freezing levels that hits late Friday and continues through Sunday. Low freezing levels mean even moderate Cumulus clouds could form ice, leading to virga.
Amounts could, at the most, only be a few hundredths here, and most likely we will be missed; precip just limited to snow flurries on Ms. Mt. Lemmon and thereabouts. The U of AZ mod sees the cold blast arriving late Friday after dark.
On the other hand, Saturday and maybe Sunday as well, will be good days for you to practice your ice in clouds detection skills in smallish Cumulus clouds.
Still looking to see at least two more troughs and chances of rain during the last two weeks of the month. NOAA ensembles suggest so. Best chances, 23rd-25th, and again around the 28th or so.
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Be sure to check this forecast jet stream series out for the next two weeks from last evening’s global data, presented by IPS MeteoStar:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2016040400_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS
It doesn’t get better than this for April in old Arizony. We’ll make up a lot of lost precip ground this month. In this series, you’ll see MANY days with the maximum winds curling around us, good for precip here as one trough after another barges into the Great SW from the Pacific. !Fantastico! !Commensar la lluvia del Niño! !Ya lo creo!1 Getting pretty excited here.
With this series, April rainfall in the Sutherland heights should be twice or more above normal (that is, at least an inch). ‘Bout time.
The End.
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Oh, yeah, the title. I slipped off the keyboard some in the dark and got some inadvertent gibberish. But gibberish sells. Lot of people will now drop by, their curiosity peaked and piqued, “What the hell izzat about?”, focusing on the key word, “storm.” People in deserts like storms. Gibberish is one of the innovations that’s been developed here, btw. You don’t see it too often, except maybe in political campaigns.
1Oh, yeah the title; “has bi-lingual content” We’re desperate for readers here, and this is clearly a cheap ploy (is that redundant, “cheap ploy”?) since I know only a few sentences in Spanish, though my second wife was Hispanic2; that should count for something. Also, I do know that the first exclamation mark should be upside down, but can’t do it.
2Being as nosy as you are, you probably want to see her, maybe you don’t believe me, too, I just said that to get more readers….
