Stationary rainbow sets duration record, maybe

Had another rainbow from those cloud “warriors” we call Cumulonimbus on the Catalinas.  But, “If traces are your thing, Catalina is king!” as we recorded but a trace of rain again while soaking rains poured down just a couple of miles away on the Catalinas, to form a sentence with too much punctuation and a sentence within a sentence1.

More interesting perhaps to some, this modest rainbow formed just after 5 PM yesterday toward the Charouleau Gap, as seen from Catalina, and was still in almost the same spot after 30 minutes.  Have never seen that before since both the sun and the showers are drifting along and so the rainbow should change position.

First, in today’s cloud story, the strangely believe it rainbow part:

5:12 PM.  Rainbow first spotted toward the Gap.  Cumulonimbus cloud not sporting ice at top; ice is below flat top due to weak updrafts that allow the ice crystals to subside.
5:12 PM. Rainbow first spotted toward the Gap. Cumulonimbus cloud not sporting ice at top; ice is below flat top due to weak updrafts that allow the ice crystals to subside while the top remains mostly liquid appearing.  The smoothness on the side of the cloud above the rainbow  is due to ice particles
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5:42 PM. While the observer has moved some few hundred yards, the rainbow has stayed pretty much where it was after 30 min. A course in optics would be required to explain this and that’s not gonna happen (accounting for the sun’s movement, the rain, and the observer’s movement).

 

 
 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The whole day represented several phases, the early, spectacular eruption of clouds on the Catalinas as it started to warm up under clear skies,  those low bases topping the mountains again indicating stupendous amounts of water are going to be in them when they grow up, the rapid appearance of “first ice” just after 10 AM, the heavy showers and cooling on the mountains and here (little thunder heard), the clearing due to the cooling, the warming, the rebuilding of the Cu on the mountains, and new showers–the rainbow was part of the second growth phase, and then the gradual die out of the Cu as sunset occurred.

Huh. I just realized that what happened to our temperatures yesterday was like a mini-sequence of the earth’s climate over the past 200,000 years or so, the prior Ice Age in the morning temps, the warm Eemian Interglacial as it warmed up, the last ice age when the cooling wind from the mountain showers hit, then the warm Holocene when the clearing and warming started up again in the afternoon!  Cool, warm, cool, warm.  Below, the Catalina temperature record that emulates earth’s climate over the past 200,000 years, beginning with next to last “ice age.”  I can’t believe how much information I am passing along today!  What a day you had yesterday!

Mock climate change for the earth's past, oh, 200, 000 years or so as indicated in yesterday's Catalina/Sutherland Heights temperature scale.
Mock climate change for the earth’s past, oh, 200, 000 years or so as indicated in yesterday’s Catalina/Sutherland Heights temperature scale.  But, we have a LOT of days like yesterday’s in the summertime, but only now after 7 summers has it hit me how it mimics our earth’s “recent” past climate.

 

 

Cloud Alert:  Yesterday might have been the last day for summer rain here.  U of AZ mod from last night has plenty of storms, but we’re on the edge of the moist plume, and those storms take place just a hair east of us it says.  So, while they may be on the Catalinas today, unless we get lucky, they’ll stay over there.  Drier air creeps in tomorrow, too.

Here is the rest of our day in clouds, from the beginning, even if its not that interesting.  In the interest of efficiency, you’d do a lot better by going to the U of AZ time lapse site to see all the wonderful things that happened yesterday, instead of plunking along one by one as you have to do here.  (PS:  Some functions in WordPress not working, would not allow some captions to be entered as usual.)

9:21 AM.  This tall thin Cumulus cloud was a reliable portent for yesterday's early storms on the mountains.  It just shot up!
9:21 AM. This tall,  thin Cumulus cloud was a reliable portent for yesterday’s early storms on the mountains. It just shot up!

 

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11:57 AM.  Thunder and downpours are widespread on the Catalinas.
11:57 AM. Thunder and downpours are widespread on the Catalinas.

 

 

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2:46 PM. After the long clearing, Cumulus begin to arise on the Catalinas again.
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5:46 PM. A pretty, and isolated Cumulus congestus with a long mostly water plume ejecting toward the NW. Some ice can be seen falling out of that ejecting shelf. Now here’s a situation where an aircraft measuring the ice output from such a cloud can miss it because its formed as the turret subsides downstream, and most of the ice is substantially below its top, and under the shelf. If you cruised along the top of the shelf, you would miss most of the ice and measure ice particle concentrations that are much lower than what the cloud put out.
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6:17 PM. This same quasi-stationary cloud with its long shelf, still shedding ice just downwind of the cloud stem, is about to disappear. Note, too, that the ice fall quits after awhile going downstream even though cloud top temperature is the same for quite a distance. The ice was actually formed at lower temperatures in the protruding turret, not at the temperature of the shelf, which apparently were too high for ice to form. Also, cloud droplet sizes shrink from those in the protruding turret as evaporation takes a stronger hold. Larger droplet sizes are associated with greater ice formation at a given temperature.
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6:12 PM. Like aspen leaves in the fall, but every day, our clouds change color as the sunsets. Here’s another memorable site, not only due to the color, but how tall and thin these Cumulus clouds are, showing that the atmosphere was still extremely unstable over the depth of these clouds, probable 2-3 km deep.

 

The End.

——————————-

1Hahah-these are just a couple of the grammatical gaffes I actually know I’ve done!

Morning delight

The sky was packed with tropical Cumulus congestus and a few Cumulonimbus clouds in the distance at dawn yesterday, an unusual sight for Catlanders.   A few of those Cu around the Catalina/Saddlebrooke/Oro Valley area grew overhead into “soft-serve” Cumulonimbus clouds with heavy, tropical-feeling showers you could hike in with great comfort; no lightning/thunder observed.

Up to an inch likely fell out of the core of the largest ones yesterday morning, but only .09 inches was recorded here in the Sutherland Heights.  The Golder Ranch Drive bridge at Lago del Oro got 0.28 inches, Horseshoe Bend in Saddlebrooke near one core got 0.71 inches, Oracle, a half inch.   Due to the exceptionally warm cloud bases, about 60 F again, warm-rain processes were certainly involved with those showers, though glaciated tops were usually seen, too.  In warm base situations, they can act together.

Now here’s something interesting of me to pass along to you, something you might want to pass along to your friends when the opportunity arises:  ice doesn’t seem to make much difference in the rainfall rates of true tropical clouds in pristine areas, only a little “juicier” than the ones that we had yesterday.  Early radar studies in the 1960s1 indicated that the rainrates of tropical clouds peak out BEFORE the cloud tops reached much below freezing, a finding that has been confirmed in some aircraft studies of rainrates in tropical clouds2.  Icy tops going to 30 thousand or more really didn’t do much but add fluff.  All that really heavy rain that developed before the cloud tops reached the freezing level was just due to collisions with coalescence (AKA here, but nowhere else because its too silly, as “coalision.”)  So, “coalision” can be an extremely powerful and efficient way to get the water out of clouds and onto the ground!

Scattered storms beautified the sky the whole day in the area.  More are expected today, as you likely know.  Have camera ready!  Hope you get shafted!

Cool snap, maybe with rain, virtually guaranteed now for about the 26th-27th.  Should make a good dent in the fly season, if you got horses and have been battling them all summer you’ll really welcome this.

Your Cloud Diary for September 19, 2014.

We start with an early morning vignette, down there somewhere:

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6:32 AM. Overcast Stratocumulus (likely with bulging tops) and the distant top of a Cumulonimbus, that bright sliver, lower right.
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6:33 AM. Cumulonimbus top NW of Catalina, an usual sight since it had arisen from such low based clouds in the “boundary layer”. Usually this only happens due to heating by the sun later in the morning or in the afternoon, of course.

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Vignette: When this cloud bank above Sutherland Heights (shown above) darkened up, looked more organized, and with Cumulonimbus tops visible and showers already nearby, I made the not-so-surprising comment to two hikers about to leave on their hike hour long hike, “Watch out for these clouds overhead!”

They got shafted,  see photo below; came back soaked, their dogs, too.

But, I had done my best. True, it was early morning, and after all, those hikers were likely thinking, “it doesn’t rain much here in Catalina in the early morning” (unless its FOUR inches like two weeks ago).

7:30 AM.  Heavy rain falls S of Sutherland Heights, on hikers who had been warned about a dump, producing a warm feeling.
7:30 AM. Heavy rain falls S of Sutherland Heights, on hikers who had been warned about a dump;  produced a warm feeling.

 

 

8:14 AM.  Those showers moved off into the Catalina Mountains and the early morning sun provided a spectacular scene.  (From the "Not-Taken While-Driving" Collection, though certain attributes here suggest that someone just pointed a camera in any old way and got this shot.  Pretty clever to make it look that way, kind of adds an "action: attribute to the shot.
8:14 AM. Those showers moved off into the Catalina Mountains and the early morning sun provided a spectacular scene. (From the “Not-Taken While-Driving” Collection, though certain attributes here suggest that someone just pointed a camera in any old way and got this shot. Pretty clever to make it look that way, kind of adds an “action: attribute to the shot.

Cloud of the Day:

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1:47 PM. I meet a friend, southbound, on Equestrian Trail. I advise her that if she drives under this cloud, she will get dumped on. She continues on.  There is no outward sign of ice, and no shaft, however.

 

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1:49 PM. Thunder begins to grumble repeatedly from this cloud only two minutes later! The conversion from a droplet top to an ice (glaciated) one is clearly in progress. My friend has disappeared over the horizon, which isn’t that far in only two minutes.

 

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1:58 PM. Kaboom! I was actually a little late getting the fallout to the ground. Will have to look at the video to see the shaft plummet down. Produced a nice little haboobula, too, on the left side, where the shaft is densest. I wondered if my friend had gotten “shafted”, as we say here when folks are under the rain shaft.

 

2:57 PM.  An isolated Cu congestus thrusts three turrets out.  Who will it turn out to be?
2:57 PM. An isolated Cu congestus thrusts three turrets out. Who will it turn out to be?
2:53 PM.  Stable layer halts growth of the two outer turrets and they begin to flatten, but caulifower top in the middle shows that further growth will occur.  Will those wings develop ice?   Beginning to look like a rocking horse, I see...
2:53 PM. Stable layer halts growth of the two outer turrets and they begin to flatten, but caulifower top in the middle shows that further growth will occur. Will those wings develop ice? Beginning to look like a rocking horse, I see…
Look!  Its Snoopy with wings!  (Ice seen on the right, also on the left, but less obvious).
Look! Its Snoopy with wings! (Ice seen on the right, also on the left, but less obvious).
4:31 PM.  Pile of Cumulus congestus clouds weighs down the Catalina Mountains again as they did the previous evening.  Had to stop, jump out car to get this grand scene, well, to me anyway.
4:31 PM. Pile of Cumulus congestus clouds weighs down the Catalina Mountains again as they did the previous evening. Had to pull off the road this time, jump out car to get this grand scene, well, to me anyway. Hungry passengers a little annoyed at the pre-dinner delay. You know, had to complain a little.
6:18 PM.  Another sunset reason why we live here and love it so much.
6:18 PM. Another sunset reason why we live here and love it so much.
6:20 PM.  Late storms continue on The Rim, toward Globe
6:20 PM. Late storms continue on The Rim, toward Globe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The End, enjoy our last couple days, it would seem, of our summer thunderstorm season.  Oh, me.

 

————————————

1Saunders, R. M., 1965; J. Atmos. Sci.

2Cloud Maven Person with Hobbs, 2005, Quart; J. Roy. Met, Soc.

 

Tattered “O” creeps into Arizona

Old Man O is kind of a mess now.  Still hoping for half an inch here in Catalina/Sutherland Heights, but now even wonder it that will materialize as O goes by today and tonight.  Darn!

But, even though O MIGHT be a rain disappointment here in Catalina, there are plenty of opportunities to get substantial rains AFTER O goes by due to lingering tropical air combined with the presence of an upper low pressure center along the Cal coast in the days ahead.  Cloud Maven Person thinks (of course, as an “unofficial weather thinker”) that more rain will fall in the spotty thunderstorms here in the Catalina area in the five or so days after O than in O today.  We shall see, won’t we?

However, before moving along, let us examine in the colorfully annotated map below those results produced by the truly great thinker inside the “Beowulf Cluster” at the University of Arizona’s Dept of Atmospheric Meteorology to compare the dinky amount CMP is dreading.  Its only fair.

Shown below is more like a heavenly rain here, some 1-2 inches is predicted to fall over a number of hours, not in one dump.  Hoping for what is shown below, but think it will be quite a bit less.

Total rain accumulation in the 24 h ending at midnight tonight, most will fall in the late morning to evening hours.
Total rain accumulation in the 24 h ending at midnight tonight, most will fall in the late morning to evening hours. This map from the model run at 11 PM AST last night, the very latest available.  The reddish areas represent where the model thinks the center of O will go with its central heavier rains.  Notice that it thinks some little areas of Mexico inland from the Gulf will get a mind-boggling TEN inches or more!

Besides, rather than having completely cloudy skies, as today’s sky will likely be, those heavy guys in the days ahead will be far more “photogenic” you might say with their black shafts and sparks. Rainrates will be greater, too, in those situations than from O’s clouds, which are a little too stratiformy and all mixed together for the blinding rains we see in our thunderstorm rain shafts.   Also, since O’s little circulation will pass just to the east of us, the flow off the Catalinas will be a little downhill from the east, which helps to reduce what we might get here, too.

In contrast to the semi-steady rains of O later today, our summer thunderstorms can drop an inch or even two in 15 minutes (yep, its been recorded in gauges).  The flooding rains we had a week ago last Monday, the rates were 1-2 inches.  Makes quite a difference in erosion.

—-rambling aside below—-

Its interesting to me, stepping aside from direct weather commentary into a more philosophical one, how the story of O resembles life in general as happens to all of us growing up.  All of the promise that O had for producing heavy, but mostly beneficial, rains here in Arizona, has been reduced, like that of a youngster growing up that gets straight A’s in the 7th grade, 8th grade, but then loses all of his focus when puberty hits and notices all those wonderful, endlessly intriguing, fascinating, “can’t take my eyes off of you”, creatures around you that seemed so boring and non-existent just a few years earlier. But now they have become the greatest conundrum in all of life!  Instead studying, you, as I did, began making jokes in class as a way of getting the opposite sex (!) to notice you because you didn’t have any other social skills to interact with “girls” with.  And, like me, you started getting kicked out of class and sent to the principal’s office for causing distractions.  THESE humiliations after all those straight A’s and accolades we got from teachers just a year or two earlier.   All of our promise, like O’s, dissipated: you’ve discovered that you’re a Saffir-Simpson Category 5 heterosexual, to continue a tropical theme here.

The life of O has been just like that; the once proud storm, so organized, so full of rain potential for Catalina, became “distracted”, disorganized,  and torn apart by mountains, vagaries in the topography and lack of warm water to feed on. O’s life reflecting our own lives when hormones hit, blind siding us, deflecting us from the productive lives we thought were ahead but instead into poor grades and lack of self-control,  which meant we had to go to a community college instead of real college.  And even then, when you find you have a Spanish class there with Miss Wisconsin of 1961, the distractions and poor grades continue…  You can’t even get into UCLA after seven years of JC!

Yes, O’s story IS the story of every man.   Believe me, I understand what you went through and how hard it was to dissipate so much promise early in life, as tropical O has likely done for us here in Catalina.

—–end of RA—-

Here is a nice, but sad loop of radar and satellite imagery of O during the last 12 h or so from IPS MeteoStar, one that documents O’s decline.

Yesterday’s clouds

One size fits all it seemed yestserday, but I am giving you three anyway, so here they are, your cloud day.

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8:03 AM. Light rain falls on the Catalinas and on Catalina, producing about a tenth of an inch here. The lack of variation in the rain intensity (“shafting” as we say here) along the mountains reflects small variations in the height of cloud tops; rain from stratiform clouds. The cloud? Nimbostratus.
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1:56 PM. Those deep Altostratus/Nimbostratus clouds, typically with tops at CIrrus levels (30 kft or more), moved off after the rain ended, leaving Altocumulus opacus droplet clouds to continue the gray day.

 

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4:41 PM. A few drops were falling off toward Tucson from this mostly ice Altostratus layer;  some Altocumulus in the upper left corner, and in the distance.

As much rain as I can find

Those models have been titillating Arizonans with lots of rain in the coming days, but unlike most prize-winning1 meteorologists, I am going to only show you those with the most rain, rather than those in which the rain is skimpy,  not impressive, like the latest model run from last night.

This is because I want you to start your day in a good mood, not a bad one.  The summer-style rains in the area don’t return until about Thursday, but you probably already know that from TEEVEE weatherpersons2.  Then those rains go on for a few days.

Here’s the BEST of the model predictions, well, two of them, from IPS MeteoStar, whose renditions of the US WRF-GOOFUS model I favor.

Now the first one is a model prediction that’s a couple of days old, the second two are only about 24 h old, having originated with yesterday’s 11 AM global data! The last two have rains of two inches in 12 h predicted in AZ, one center of that rain is just about over Sutherlands Heights/Catalina!   Pretty excited and am glad I could find it for you.

2014083018_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_228

Valid Monday night at 11 PM AST, September 8th. Well, it may not be “valid” anymore, but this is about as large an area of rain moving into Arizona as you will find in a model output, so its pretty great to savor.
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Valid Sunday night at 11 PM, September 7th from a later model run. Note the purple spot on Mt. Lemmon, indicating about 2 inches of rain in 12 h.  Tropical low sits off Baja, and spurts NE into AZ after this map.
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Valid at 11 AM, September 10th. That tropical storm remnant is now over Arizona producing a lot of rain, though the major portion is just west of us.

 

Now those last two panels of rain are due to a strange situation. A tropical storm brings a surge of showers into Arizona as it passes off Baja heading for death in the cold waters to the NW. But then it stalls, goes in circles for awhile, and comes shooting up into Arizona bring the rain shown in the last panel!  So, we get TWO rains from the same storm!

What are the chances this strange storm track will actually happen? Virtually none. But “virtually” none is not all NONE, to paraphrase a memorable line in Princess Bride, so there IS hope that major September rains WILL occur in Catalina/Sutherland Heights in the 10 days ahead.   I’m counting on it.  Waxing rain gauge now so that drops slip easily down the funnel and into the smaller measuring tube.  Be sure to at least wipe the dust off the larger collecting funnel before these major rains hit so that “no drop is left behind”, again paraphrasing something I heard somewhere.

Expecting 1-2 inches during the 7 days beginning this Thursday, with outside chances of it being even MORE.  I love predicting a lot of rain for a desert, so you’ll have to take that into account. If you’re upset at this disclosure,  being kind of crybaby, and want really good “objective” forecasting with great graphics, then go to Bob M or the NWS!  To HELL with you!

The End.

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1It was a consolation prize in cloud seeding studies3, i.e., not that great,  that we (Peter Hobbs and I got) like winning the main prize would be.  Kind of fits in with my athletic “prizes”;  all second team this, all second team that, honorable mention this, etc.

2Some of these “weatherpersons” have not been well trained, and have been “on air”
(!) referring to sprinkles of rain as “drizzle.”  Unbelievable.  No university-trained meteorologist would make such an ignominious error, unless of course, they skipped classes in cloud microphysics.

3My role in getting that prize was due to finding fault in the work of others rather than contributing solutions to problems.

 

 

 

 

 

Best model output for you

Been looking around at quite a number of model runs (well 2, anyway) trying to find the best one for you.  Here it is.  Its yesterday’s WRF-GFS run that was based on 11 AM AST global data.  Has some great rains for us here in Arizona.  Those rains, and that incredible hurricane that saunters up the coast of Baja in about ten days, aren’t depicted as well in later model runs, so there’s not much point in showing them.  If you want a great, OBJECTIVE forecasting, you know, go to Bob, or the NWS, or wait for Mike L’s detailed one from the U of AZ later this morning!  You’re not going to find “objectivity” here when it comes to forecasting rain for a desert region1. Let’s look at two examples of weather excitement in that now-obsolete-run-but-doesn’t-mean-it won’t-happen-anyway-just-because-its-a little-older-run”1: 1) Lotta rain in Arizona (that’s a different near-hurricane over there in the SW corner of the map, one that in one model run from Canada, formerly went over Yuma!  Sorry Yuma, and all of Arizona, both of which would have gotten, in that event, a bigger dent in the drought than shown below.  Oh, well.

2014081818_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_072
Valid on Thursday at 11 AM AST. Green pixels denote those areas where the model thinks rain has occurred during the prior 6 hours. Most of AZ covered in green pixies! Sweet. 

2) Fascinating near-hurricane just off San Diego on the 29th of August, likely surviving so well due to the California Niño mentioned here lately.  BTW, this particular hurricane is predicted to be exceptionally large and intense out there when it revs up in a few days, maybe a Category 4 at its peak, looking at some of the model runs.  “Let’s go surfin’ now, everybody’s learnin’ how….”  The Beach Boys, 1962, sayin’ it like it was for us near-beach bums way back then when the summer hurricanes in the Mexican Pacific sent huge waves poleward on to our southern California beaches, as the one below will2.

Valid in ten days.
Valid in ten days, Friday, August 29th at 11 AM AST.  Near hurricane brings rain to San Diego.  Colored regions now denote where the model thinks it has rained in the prior TWELVE hours (coarser resolution because its not going to be that accurate in the placement of highs and lows anyway, so why waste time over-calculating stuff?

 Yesterday’s clouds

What an outstanding, if surprising day it was!  After it appeared, in later model runs available late yesterday morning,  that the late afternoon/evening bash from the high country wasn’t going to happen after all (producing local glumness), we had a remarkable in situ explosion of cloud tops.  Those clouds just erupted from an innocuous, patchy group of Stratocumulus that invaded the sky around 5 PM.   Still, even with the early turrets jutting up there, it didn’t seem possible, at 7 PM, there would be much more growth into showers, let alone, thunderstorms with frequent lightning lasting several hours that happened. Eventually rain even got into Sutherland Heights/Catalina, with 0.17 inches here, and 0.12 inches at the Golder Bridge, and that didn’t seem possible since the rain shafts were so locked onto the Catalinas, and east side for so long.  Dan Saddle, about 5 mi S of Oracel, counting the mid-afternoon thunderstorms that locked in upthere, got a 2.68 inches over the past 24 h!  That should have sent a little water down the CDO. BTW, a location in the Rincons is reporting 4.09 inches in the past 24!

5:50 AM.  Day started with "colorful castellanus."  Hope you saw this.
5:50 AM. Day started with “colorful castellanus.” Hope you saw this.
Update ann DSC_0239
12:26 PM. After a late morning start, the Cumulus congestus tops were streaming away from the origin zone of Mt. Lemmon to over the north part of Saddlebrooke and the Charouleau Gap. No ice evident yet, but it was just about to show itself.
BTW, the “51ers” have a nice baseball team in Vegas (of course), this brought to my attention by neighbors recently, showing that a degree of strangeness permeates American life, as also shown in these blogs.

 

 

12:44 PM.  Ice virga now seen in the  right hand side falling out as I passed the budding wildlife overpass now being constructed on Oracle Road.  I guess scents and signage will be used to direct wildlife to the overpass.
12:44 PM. Ice virga now seen in the right hand side falling out as I passed the budding wildlife overpass now being constructed on Oracle Road. I guess scents and signage will be used to direct wildlife to the overpass.

 

1:49 PM.  Took about an hour more of rain and development for the thunder to start from these locked in turrets that kept springing on The Lemmon.
1:49 PM. Took about an hour more of rain and development for the thunder to start from these locked in turrets that kept springing on The Lemmon.

 

4:54 PM.  Long before this, it was "all over', the rains no doubt up there had helped to put the fire out, so-to-speak, and with no anvils advancing toward us, there was even hardly any point to remain conscious.  It is done.
4:54 PM. Long before this, it was “all over’, the rains no doubt up there had helped to put the fire out, so-to-speak, and with no anvils advancing toward us, there was even hardly any point to remain conscious. It is finished.
6:54 PM.  Shallow grouping of Stratocumulus provided a nice, if boring, backdrop to the setting sun's light on Samaniego Ridge.
6:54 PM, 2 h later.   Shallow grouping of Stratocumulus provided a nice, if boring, backdrop to the setting sun’s light on Samaniego Ridge.
7:04 PM.  Only ten minutes later, and I'm out wondering around in the backyard looking for a nice sunset shot, when I see this shocking site, a protruding turret far above the other tops.  Still, I pooh-poohed anything but a ragged collapse in the minutes ahead.  It was too late in the day for heating or anything else to generate rain in situ from these lower clouds (now topping Mt. Lemmon).
7:04 PM. Only ten minutes later, and I’m out wondering around in the backyard looking for a nice sunset shot, when I see this shocking sight for the time of day, a protruding turret far above the other tops. Still, I pooh-poohed anything happening but a ragged collapse in the minutes ahead. It was too late in the day for heating or anything else to generate rain in situ from these lower clouds (now topping Mt. Lemmon).  Nice pastel colors, though.

 

7:32 PM.  Though "pinkie" in the prior photo did fade, new turrets kept bubbling upward, and in disbelief, this one reached up beyond the ice-forming temperature threshhold (is probably topping out between 25-30 kft, not huge) and a strong rain shaft emerged on the Catalinas.  After a little while longer, lightining began to flash to the east as the Reddington Pass area started to get hammered.  Eventually in the early nighttime hours. these cells propagated to the west, giving us that bit of rain here in The Heights of Sutherland.  How nice, and how mind-blowing this whole evening was!
7:32 PM. Though “pinkie” in the prior photo did fade, new turrets kept bubbling upward, and in disbelief, this one reached up beyond the ice-forming temperature threshhold (is probably topping out between 25-30 kft, not huge) and a strong rain shaft emerged on the Catalinas. After a little while longer, lightining began to flash to the east as the Reddington Pass area started to get hammered. Eventually in the early nighttime hours. these cells propagated to the west, giving us that bit of rain here in The Heights of Sutherland. How nice, and how mind-blowing this whole evening was!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today

Got some Stratocu (castellanus in some parts) topping Sam (Samaniego Ridge) this morning, an outstanding indication of a lot of moisture in the air, moisture that’s not just at the surface.  U of AZ has thunderstorms moving toward Catalina during the late morning (!) and afternoon from the SW, not the usual direction we’re accustomed to.  So, keep eyeball out toward Twin Peaks or so for exciting weather today!  Oh, my, towering Cu top converted to ice, must be 25-30 kft up there right now at 7:06 AM!  Also, notice nice shadow on lower Ac clouds.

The End

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1“Truth-in-packaging” portion of web blog statement.

1Its chaos in the models due to errors in them we don’t always know about, chaos that we try to get a handle on with plots from the NOAA spaghetti factory.  But you know all that already, so my apologies for repeating myself again and again.  I thought I would see what would happen if I put TWO “1” footnotes….

2Of course, in those days, we had little knowledge about how many hurricanes there were down there due to the lack of satellite data and ship reports.  But when the “Weather Bureau”, as it was called in those days did know, there was always good surf on the south facing beaches, like Zuma Beach.  So going to the beach, unlike now where wave forecasting is so good, was a real crap shoot.   You’d come over that first viewpoint of the ocean on Malibu Canyon Road, on your way to Zuma. one that over looked the ocean a little offshore from Malibu,  and either go, “Holy Crap!”, or hope for the best.  It was a swell time for lightly employed youth.  Below, the best  “Holy Crap!” view coming around to that viewpoint, early September 1963 (never saw anything like it before or afterwards; swells were never visible so far offshore from this spot,  meaning Zuma would be gigantic).  Still remember those Zuma waves, so far out to sea, as the height of small telephones…

Nearly drowned that day at Zuma, me and my pal ignoring lifequard's advice not to go in.  HELL, we'd been body surfing the biggest ones we could there for years by then.  Fortunately, he didn't have to come and get me, which saved a lot of face.
Nearly drowned that day at Zuma, me and my pal ignoring lifequard’s advice not to go in. HELL, we’d been body surfing the biggest ones we could there for years by then. Fortunately, he didn’t have to come and get me, which saved a lot of face.

Good muddy morning, Mr. and Mrs. Catalina!

Well, it finally happened, we got shafted royally (as CM likes to say, referring to getting rain shafted) yesterday afternoon with a badly needed 1.09 inches here in Sutherland Heights.  More than 2 inches fell nearby, too, such as near the intersection of Hwy 77 and 79!  The highlight of the storm was, of course, all of those several close lightning strikes between 2 and 3 PM yesterday.  If you weren’t out watching them, here’s one for you, one that popped Lago del Oro.   (Mr. Cloud Maven person reminds his reader that during lightning, do not stand outside by a tree outside as here.  Hmmmph, a new thought….  Maybe that’s where the expression, “Death warmed over” comes from, a person unlucky enough to have been struck by lightning…and then somebody finds him right away!

2:06 PM.
2:06 PM.  Looking northwest; a literal highlight of the day.
6:17 AM.  The remarkable site of a Sc lenticularis stack over Catalina due to strong easterly winds up there.  This is more like a scene from the front range of the Rockies in wintertime.  It hovered up there in place for a couple of hours before withering.
6:17 AM. The remarkable site of a Sc lenticularis stack over Catalina due to strong easterly winds up there. This is more like a scene from the front range of the Rockies in wintertime. It hovered up there in place for a couple of hours before withering. One almost started looking for infamous “rotor cloud”, filled with severe turbulence.  You can see this remarkable cloud for summer and the things it did, courtesy of the U of AZ time lapse film for yesterday, a real keeper!  Still have that lenticular cloud over and downwind of Ms. Lemmon today.  Interesting.
6:23 AM.  After a few drops, a little rainbow was seen off to the NW.  Quite nice.
6:23 AM. After a few drops, a little rainbow was seen off to the NW. Quite nice.
7:56 AM.  Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-style day, or maybe light steady rains as a disturbance moved toward us, or would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating?  For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enought, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT compose of ice crystals, the vaporize pretty heavy overcasts.  This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday.  The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior intelligence because you can see the sharpness of the cloud features, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain.  So, there is hope here, to continue this novella, for a "burn off" in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun's light to be reflected off'n the top.
7:56 AM. (Caution-long, sleep-inducing caption ahead.  If you’re driving you’ll want to pull off the road.)  Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-type spring day, or maybe only light steady rains amounting to only a few hundredths or tenths as a disturbance moved toward us.   Or,  would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating? For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enough, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT composed of ice crystals, to vaporize pretty heavy overcasts. This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday. Doesn’t have to get that hot.  The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior cloud intelligence because you can see the sharpness and detail of the tiniest cloud features; they are not “blurry-looking as ice clouds would be, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain. So, there is hope here in this sighting of droplet clouds, to continue this novella, for a “burn off” in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun’s light to be reflected off’n the top, and that’s why they look so dark, a darkness that has been enhanced that bit by a little trick of photography called, “underexposing.” Oh, the cloud type?  Stratocumulus stratiformis (the second descriptor because there’s so much of it.)

 

9:46 AM.  Within only an hour or two, the thought of a heavily overcast all day could be jettisoned as the normal mid-morning to mid-day thinning occurred.  But, now, would the storms be clustered enough to hit Catalina, or would they end up being too scattered as in the day before where big dumps missed us?  It was, however, now in the bag, that huge clouds would rise up later in the day due to some heating.
9:46 AM. Within only an hour or two, the thought of a heavily overcast all day could be jettisoned as the normal mid-morning to mid-day thinning occurred. But, now, would the storms be clustered enough to hit Catalina, or would they end up being too scattered as in the day before where big dumps missed us? It was, however, now in the bag, that huge clouds would rise up later in the day due to some heating. Note Ac lenticular slivers.
1:47 PM.  While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures.  Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain.graupel that fall from such a cloud.  Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning author, in keeping with a mud theme here today.
1:47 PM. While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures. Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain/graupel that fall from such a cloud, as here. Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast whilst in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning  author and friend who likes clouds a lot, in keeping with a “mud” theme here today.  Remember, too, you only got a couple of minutes to catch this stage as the large drops and soft  fall out at about 15-20 mph.
1:59 PM.  Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke.  Worried here, since it missed.
1:59 PM. Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke. Worried here since it missed.
2:00 PM.  More rain and thunder appeared upwind on the Catalinas leading to renewed hope.  In fact, the whole sky at this point seemed to be turning into one huge Cumulonimbus. It was great!
2:00 PM. More rain and thunder appeared upwind on the Catalinas leading to renewed hope. In fact, the whole sky at this point seemed to be turning into one huge Cumulonimbus. It was great!

 

DSC_0459
3:27 PM. An inch had fallen and it looked like we were going have a lake side property. Next time will get kayak out! Sometimes toads erupt from the earth when this happens, but I guess they like it darker than this.

 

DSC_0474
4:01 PM. One of the prettiest sites after our major rains is this line of Stratus fractus clouds that cuddle up against Samaniego Ridge. Yesterday was no exception, and it was another memorable site of the day.

 

The weather ahead

Well, drying. Unfortunately we’re in for another long dry spell likely beginning after today. Hoping we can squeeze out one more day with rain this afternoon. Today’s storms will move from an unusual summertime direction from the south-southwest and southwest, so you;ll want to be watching toward the Tucson Mountains to Twin Peaks for stuff that might come in in the afternoon, more of a fall pattern as the winds are shifting aloft today to from the SW. The Catalinas get active with Cu and Cumulonimbus piling up by late morning, but they drift toward the north and not over us as they did yesterday, all this from the U of AZ model run from 11 PM AST last night.

 

Thundering herd roars down from the Catalinas; more thunder expected

A rare day for Catalinians:  five thundering cells drifted off Ms. Mt. Lemmon and its environs and over Catalina and Oro Valley yesterday providing lots of local excitement.  The Sutherland Heights district got 0.46 inches, and early on, was leading Mt. Lemmon and the Samaniego Peak gauges because the cells did not drop their loads until over the foothills and the Valley.  Below, the exciting day reprised:

DSC_0104
12:52. Cloud street drifts off the Catalinas over Catalina.  Because the Cumulus clouds didn’t seem to be going anywhere, were so modest  in the afternoon, rather than thundering before noon, I was kind of sad, disappointed.
1:46 PM.
1:46 PM.  But, then when suddenly those clouds began erupting upward, reaching the ice-forming level, and rain falling out, I was so happy.  Started raining on me a few minutes after this shot.  You can see the slight initial rainshaft to the right of center on the foothills of the Catalina Mountains.
DSC_0114

1:51 PM. Rain approaches Sutherland Heights/Catalina from the east. The little guys up there began to thunder as well. Several cloud to ground strikes in that area you see in the photo! Amazing how small a lightning producing cloud can be here sometimes.  However, “thunder1” only dropped 0.06 inches here; more fell a little south.  Still, it was so great to see measurable rain fall!

 

DSC_0121
2:11 PM. Remarkably, and hopefully, after thunder1 went by, it looked like another cell might drift off the Catalinas into Catalina soon afterward!

 

2:25 PM.  Thunder2 underway toward the Gap.
2:25 PM. Thunder2 underway on Sam Ridge.  Samaniego Peak recorded 0.94 inches yesterday.  More cloud to ground strikes here, some rather distant, a mile or two,  from this shaft, so watch it when you’re watching it.  (Professional viewer;  do not attempt.)

 

3:58 PM.  Thunder3 rolls off the Catalinas!  This was much larger than Thunder1 and 21, and drenched the south side of Catalina, and into Oro Valley with rains of around half an inch.  The lightning was awesome.
3:58 PM. Thunder3 rolls off the Catalinas! This was much larger than Thunder1 and 21, and drenched the south side of Catalina, and into Oro Valley with rains of around half an inch. The lightning was awesome.
4:02 PM, just FOUR minutes later!  Thunder3 in full dump mode.
4:02 PM, just FOUR minutes later! Thunder3 in full dump mode, lightning galore!
4:14 PM.  Small crowd of lightning viewers.  One is using the cushion technique of blocking lightning.  It is NOT effective; this is an urban legend.
4:14 PM. Small crowd of local lightning viewers. On the left, a viewer is using the “cushion technique” to block lightning. It is NOT effective; this is an urban legend.  This cannot be emphasized enough.

 

5:10 PM.  A remarkable Thunder4 formed on the Catalinas and headed toward Catalina!  I could not believe it!
5:10 PM. A remarkable Thunder4 formed on the Catalinas and headed toward Catalina! I could not believe it!

 

6:07 PM.  If there was a downside to the rain, it was that dusty floodwaters (a great name for a western singer, BTW) began to impact dirt roads.
6:07 PM. If there was a downside to the rain, it was that dusty floodwaters (another great name for a western singer) began to impact dirt roads. Note sign at right…

 

7:29 PM.  The day ended with a great rosy glow (another great name for a singer!) on the northwestern horizon, but it wasn't the end of the thundering herd, was it?  Nope.

7:29 PM. The day ended with a great rosy glow (another great name for a singer!) on the northwestern horizon, but it wasn’t the end of the thundering herd, was it? Nope. FQT LTG was only an hour or so away.  Now that was really was amazing, that Thunder5,  developing near and rolling off the Cat Mountains early last evening.  What a great day it was after appearing to be a disappointing one during the late morning and early afternoon.  To reprise the whole day:  see movie.

 

Well, C-M person has told enough stories about past weather for today, so shutting down here at 4:42 AM.  Dewpoints are still very high, mods expecting more thundering herds in the Catalina/Oro Valley area today.

Have camera ready for some great shaft shots, those black, straight sided ones that go all the way to the ground. If you can, try to get the shot just before the bottom drops out; the two make a great, dramatic couplet for friends and family to enjoy I find.

Farther ahead…..

A disturbing, possibly week long dry spell has been showing up in the models, beginning the 17th, lasting through the 25th or so.  Has to do with a giant summertime upper level trough set to bring those record low temps to the upper Midwest beginning in the next few days.  The NW flow on the backside of this  trough is foretold to extend into Arizona, thus, drying things out and pushing the tropical air southward.  May see some hot days and only small Cu and maybe very isolated, distant Cumulonimbus clouds during that time.  Ugh.

 

On the bright side, spaghetti says, and with a lot of confidence,  that the dry spell will be eroded and the normal wetness will return after the 25th or so.  I think you can see that here, now that you’re an expert spaghetti consumer:

NOAA "spaghetti" plot, valid for 1700 AST, July 26th.  Looks great for storms!
NOAA “spaghetti” plot, valid for 1700 AST, July 26th. Looks great for storms!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The End.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Snowbirds may head back to Arizona as low temperature records fall in the eastern US in a few days

Forgetting about yesterday’s unforecast subdued afternoon convection hereabouts after about 1 PM), lets talk about the misery of others; the little crybabies that leave Arizona in the summertime, decimating its economy, so that they can be cooler and “happy” in northern climes (while dodging hail and tornadoes, we might add).

Well, how about them birdies being really COLD before very long, due to record breaking low July temperatures?  Yes, that’s right, what’s left of the “polar vortex” will once again, due to global warming, of course, spin out of control and down into the northern US in just about 5-7 days.   And with it, long term July low temperature records will fall in the eastern US. Count on it.

So, once again, as some scientists alleged last winter,  global warming will actually cause cooling.  (Almost everything that happens is due to GW these days, as we know. (“GW”, BTW,  now repackaged in the catch all, temperature-neutral phrase, “Climate Change”,  during the past few years because, globally, it stopped getting warmer way back in ’98, and when the years began to pile up without global warming, scientists had to find another phrase to hang their mistaken hats on.  (Where was the usual scientific “caution” back then?)

HOWEVER, continuing on with this harangue, and being a “lukewarmer”,  we must watch out that the coming big El Nino doesn’t release a spring-loaded,  pent up release of global heat.  Might well happen, so don’t give up on “GW” quite yet; hold some cards on that question for another few years.

And, of course, if there is a step jump up in global temperatures just ahead, the phrase, “climate change” will be dumped by scientists and media for “global warming” again.  Count on it, #2.

But, I digress, mightily, mainly due to yesterday’s cloud disappointments.

—————————-

Not in a great mood after yesterday’s bust, as you can tell, except for that strong thunderstorm that pummeled the north side of the Catalinas beginning about 11:30 AM, that was pretty cool; had continuous thunder for about an hour and a half, too. Dan Saddle up on Oracle Ridge got 0.63 inches, but you can bet 1-2 inches fell somewhere up there.

I was so happy then.

I thought the “Great Ones” would arise upwind of us in the direction of Pusch Ridge, but no.  Those clouds got SMALLER as the afternoon wore on, it was incredible, and by sunset they were gone with only trashy debris clouds of Altocumulus and Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus from great storms in Mexico drifting over our sky.  Even the sunset was disappointing.

Well, that 3:15 am to 3:30 am little shower this morning than dropped 0.15 inches here in the Heights, and 0.24 inches down there at the Bridge by Lago del Oro gave a psych boost1 that got me here on the keyboard.

10:55 AM.  Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret.  This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought).  When you see this happening this early, you also look for an "explosion" some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this.
10:55 AM. Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret. This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought). When you see this happening this early, you also look for an “explosion” some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:55 AM.  Close up, in case you don't believe me.
10:55 AM. Close up, in case you don’t believe me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11:04 AM.
11:04 AM.

 

7:33 PM.  Your sunset.
7:33 PM. Your sunset.

Today?  Check here.  Once again, mod expects early Cumulonimbus on The Lemmon, then groups of thunderstorms move in during the evening (as was more or less predicted yesterday, but didn’t happen.)  Will go with mod again, though, because I would like that to happen.

The weather way ahead

We’ve talked about cold air, now to balance things off, how about a discussion of the warm air ahead?  Real hot air.

Was blown away by the spaghetti outputs from last night for the period of about two weeks from now.  You can see the whole package from the NOAA spaghetti factory here. Below, our weather in 12-15 days, usually beyond confident predictions, but not here:

201407221700 spag_f288_nhbg

Valid at 5 PM AST July 22nd. Massive blob of really hot air settles in over the western half of the US.  In this map, the most reliable long term predictions are over the western half of the US and over the Saharan Desert (indicated by the lack of lines in those two areas.  A lot of lines means the weather pattern is pretty unpredictable.)

 

Valid at 5 PM July 22nd.  Massive upper level blob of really hot air sits over the entire West!
Valid at 5 PM July 25th. Massive upper level blob of really hot air continues to dominate the western half of the US.

&

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The hot blob of air should lead to record HIGH temperatures all over the place in those days beginning around the 20-25th of July.  Rainfall here?  Indeterminant.  If the high center sits over us, it might just be hot, real hot, but dry.

But, if the configuration aloft is as shown in the second plot, it could be very wet as tropical disturbances shift northwestward from Mexico into Arizona.

Sorry, can’t do much with precip from these,  I don’t think.

The End, and covering all the possibilities, CM

====================================
1Paraphrasing, the song for weathermen, those speaking to clouds; “Rain on me, when I’m downhearted….”

What we’re looking for

Clouds began building early yesterday on the Cat Mountains.  Bases initially below Sam Ridge.  It was a good sign of a possible “big day” since the lower the cloud bases initially, the more water the clouds will hold compared to a day with bases above Mt. Lemmon.

So, in our CMJ “club”, we look for that moment when clouds to begin form ice above Ms. Mt. Lemmon and her environs as the turrets climb ever higher in the morning and early afternoon sun, log it in our cloud diaries, and maybe compare to other recent days.

9:20 AM.  Great portent for great rains.  Clouds lining Sam (Samaniego) Ridge!
9:20 AM. Great portent for great rains. Clouds lining Sam (Samaniego) Ridge!
DSC_0375

10:32 AM. Cumulus beginning shooting upward, but tops are far below ice-forming level (around 20 kft above sea level on days like this).

 

12"24 PM.  Turret tops now have ascended to about 20 kft or so.
12″24 PM. Turret tops now have ascended to about 20 kft or so.
12:28 PM.  Same turret a few minutes later.  Ice showing as droplets evaporate.
12:28 PM. Same turret a few minutes later. Ice showing (frizzy stuff directly above second car on the road) as droplets evaporate.  Unfortunately, those snowflakes, to melt into rain on the way down, have been orphaned from the updraft and are going to fall out into dry air instead of into cloudy air.  Few will make it to the ground.  That turret to the right has ascended even higher, therefore would be forming ice at this point, and rain to fall shortly.   (From the “Not taken while driving collection, BTW).  Traffic authorities remind drivers not to take a lot photos while driving.)
1:25 PM.  An example of the rain that fell from those higher turrets.  But again, the top sheared off so that a lot of the rain fell into drier air instead of down through the root of the cloud, and so showers were pretty light.
1:25 PM. An example of the rain that fell from those higher turrets. But again, the top sheared off so that a lot of the rain fell into drier air instead of down through the root of the cloud, and so showers were pretty light.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While CMP was expecting a gigantic blow up any time after this, it only happened in one spot, a sign that the atmosphere was in a suppression mode, that is, was not helping to cluster updrafts below cloud bases yesterday. Those forces can trump great low level humidity, dammitall.

Here’s the ONE behemoth of the many that were expected, based on an eyeball assessment early yesterday:

3:46 PM.  Gargantuan Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (has anvil) southwest of Marana Twin Peaks area.  Estimate 2 inches in the core fall of rain.  Overshooting top, barely visible here in the middle of the anvil, indicates extra strong updrafts.
3:46 PM. Gargantuan Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (has anvil) southwest of Marana Twin Peaks area. Instruction: Estimate 2 inches in the core fall of rain. Overshooting top, barely visible here in the middle of the anvil, indicates extra strong updrafts.
7:22 PM.  Nice coloration on the Cat Mountains as a cluster of disorganized Cu hover over it, dead anvil behind it.
7:22 PM. Nice coloration on the Cat Mountains as a cluster of disorganized Cu hover over it, dead anvil over and behind it.

The weather ahead, immediately ahead

Lots of water in the air again today, and since yesterday was a “down day”, caused by some upper level negative feature passing by (often happens AFTER a good day, like the night before last), expect an “up day” today, more showers and thunderstorms. Now, lets see if the U of AZ model says that as well, for support of this SOP (Seat of Pants) forecast…. Yep!  Pretty happy right now. Go here to see the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster output for today.

 

The End.

Another hurricane (“Cristina”) forms off Mexico; can AZ rain be far behind?

Looks pretty good….  Two completely different computer models show tropical moisture getting into Arizona in about 5-6 days  a resulting preview of the summer rain season.  You can find quite a bit of “green pixies”  (areas of rain denoted by areas of green pixels) in Arizona here from IPS Meteostar’s rendition of our best model, the WRF-GFS.   And, the Smoking Canadians have rain in our area in their model, too. This is going to be the best chance for measurable rain in Catalina since early April!

In the US model linked to above, you can also see the residual low pressure center from today’s Hurricane “Crissy” moving up the coast of Baja Cal in five days.  Finally, could we have a month with above normal rain after not having one since November 2013 (or was it 2012?)  Might happen, after all we deserve it.  So, I will now predict that June will be above normal in rain in Catalina, AZ.

You can keep track of Crissy here.   I will be tracking Crissy, that’s for sure.

Below, an example of rain (with drizzle) in case you’ve forgotten what it looks like in a research aircraft with laser beam imagery of all the stuff you’re flying through:

Rain as seen by aircraft instrumentation, arranged in order of small to larger, left to right.
Rain (and drizzle drops) as seen by aircraft instrumentation, arranged in order of small to larger, left to right.  The horizontal lines are just about a millimeter apart, so the biggest drops here, one that aren’t breaking up, are about two millimeters in diameter.  Drizzle drops, as CMJs know, are those between 0.2 to 0.5 millimeters in diameter, so there are a lot of those.  BTW, these were collected while the aircraft was flying at about 160 knots (80 meters per second).  Pretty amazing you can image these drops as they go by so fast!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The discerning reader will want to know what spaghetti sez;  what are the chances that the steering winds in the middle of the troposphere will steer Crissy toward us as it moves around off’n Mexico. Will those steering winds help Crissy’s moisture get into Arizona and over Catalina?

We seek help from spaghetti and, indeed, the spaghetti shown below is “supportive”, that is,  it shows that the “planets are lining up” for rain here, as an astrologer might say, those people we look to for personal guidance in everyday matters; whose forecasts are so important no newspaper can go without them without causing an uproar on the part of their readers.

See writing on figure below for some additional weather interpretation.

ann spag_f144_nhbg

Valid for 5 PM AST June 16th. Those red lines suggest that Crissy’s remains (RIP) might indeed be directed at eastern Arizona!  Big trough for this time of year foretold along West Coast with high confidence, as indicated by “bunching lines”, perfect for drawing tropical storms northward into the Southwest US.  If not us, then those dry areas of New Mexico and west Texas virtually guaranteed for some tropical air.

 Yesterday’s clouds

10:53 AM.  Mostly Cirrus uncinus, bisected by a contrail.
10:53 AM. Mostly Cirrus uncinus, bisected by a contrail.
2:38 PM.  Cumulus humilis and fractus boiled up out of 100 F plus air at the surface. Tops warmer than -10 C, so no ice, just those thin patches of Cirrus on top.
2:38 PM. Cumulus humilis and fractus boiled up out of 100 F plus air at the surface.
Tops warmer than -10 C, so no ice, just those thin patches of Cirrus on top.
3:08 PM.  Cirrocumulus atop Cumulus fractus clouds.
3:08 PM. Cirrocumulus atop Cumulus fractus clouds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice Altocumulus around this morning, but moisture is really confined to that level, not deep enough for rain at the ground.  The Cumulus that form this afternoon will have bases around 14,000 to 15,000 feet above the ground.  They should be deeper than yesterday, and so ice is likely to form in the larger ones (and we hope that you will log that in your daily cloud diary), but only tantalizing virga is likely, maybe with some brief windy periods near them.

 

The End