First, turned the big Eight-Oh last year. Truly bad; time running out. The Grim Reaper can’t be far behind me. Let us calm down by listening to some content about death from the Swedish band, Ghost:
Still doing science as best I can with this ancient brain! Lots still to do. Why even right now, a history of the Colorado River Basin Pilot Project, conducted in the early 1970s, still the nation’s largest, most costly randomized mountain cloud seeding experiment, is in review at the J. Appl. Meteor. and Climate. My co-author is Dave “Eloquent Science” Schultz! Will it get published? I dunno. It’s not the best science story due to major oversights, failed peer-review of the prior work on which it was based, the usual stuff.
Some recent “contributions” posted in the past two years at cloud-maven.com:
One-Sided Citing in Cloud Seeding
The above was submitted to the Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (BAMS) as an “essay” but was rejected by J. Rosenfeld, Chief Ed., in 2019. This version has been rewritten and expanded from the submitted one and the word “misconduct” removed from the original title which asked the question if one-sided citing should be considered so. I have a low threshold of scientific misconduct…
One sided citing is a plague, not only in science where controversy exists, but also in the media. It is a phenomenon that doesn’t tell the full story but misleads readers. Please read Sharyl Attkisson’s book, “Slanted” for media examples.
The Rise and Fall of Cloud Seeding in Israel
A special interest of mine began in 1979 or so when Prof. Peter Hobbs, the director of my group, challenged me to look into the Israeli cloud seeding experiments after I had outed faulty cloud seeding work in Colorado and Washington State. The history alluded to in the title above has been updated after the seven season Israel-4 randomized experiment ended in 2020 with a null result. Wow.
I had previously published on the clouds of Israel in 1988, and performed extensive reanalyses of the first two Israeli experiments in 1995 with Prof. Hobbs as a co-author/editor. Both these pubs were on my own initiative, and considerable time and dime. (My poor wife!) You can get the “skinny” here though the piece is pretty “fat” being a full history of the Israeli seeding experience:
A shorter version of the above article, lacking the result of Israel-4, was rejected in 2019 by BAMS Special Ed, James Rodgers Fleming, a former member of Peter Hobbs’ group (my former group)! I got two reviews; an anonymous, “accept, important paper, minor revisions”, and a “reject” by a promoter of cloud seeding at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Dr. Daniel Rosenfeld, who signed his review.
BAMS would not let me respond to the comments of the reviewers (Special Ed. Rodgers kindly asked BAMS “higher ups”) , so I could make those few necessary revisions to my manuscript. I thought this refusal was unheard of, especially due to the disingenuous comments of the seeding partisan.
When I queried BAMS last year after the Israel-4 null result became known, BAMS officials indicated that they were not interested in this history. Amazing.
I think the long and winding road of the Israeli cloud seeding experience is a science story that every organization from states to local water districts that have paid for cloud seeding should read. You probably aren’t getting what you think IMO, as the Israeli’s found out when they got independent evaluations of their seeding efforts.
The Israeli story is pretty incredible because as much as $100 million in 2022 dollars was wasted on ineffectual cloud seeding due to seeding partisans who missed faults in their evaluations in reporting statistical seeding successes (or omitted data to make them look that way) and described imaginary, “ripe-for-seeding” clouds that buttressed those ersatz statistical results. I am hoping to get a science medal from Israel for all my volunteer work. :), sort of.
If you want the “big kahuna,” a full book length autobio about how a young, idealistic weather forecaster saw his idealism about science dissipated and then got into questioning the most highly regarded cloud seeding successes after he entered the murky domain of cloud seeding, its all here, in fact, too much. But “hey” there are embedded slide shows!
Also am assembling “life stories,” a kind of “memoirs,” if you will, a writing task that was inspired by those of my neighbors, Big Bill Cotton, and Big Roger Pielke, Sr. , both former faculty at Colorado State University, who have written their own fascinating stories. Prof. Pielke had his own Amer. Meteor. Soc. Symposium Day last January! Prof. Cotton got a medal given out only once every four years last year from the International Committee on Cloud Physics. Wow. While I am a pop gun compared to these science howitzers, I do think I have some interesting tales to tell.
Here are some chapter titles:
“Joanne, Abe, and Me
Joanne, then at UCLA, advised me to give up the idea of being a meteorologist in 1963, and with good reason; my poor grades in math and physics. But I became an expert in her field of cloud seeding and cloud microstructure and ended up on opposite sides on the cloud seeding reports of success emanating from Israel. Irony+. I was eventually proved correct in doubting those reports. But Joanne was right in one sense; I could have never have made it through the highly theoretical UCLA program and, instead, matriculated at San Jose State, in a meteorology program that emphasized weather and forecasting along with the “hard stuff.” I only wanted to be a weather forecaster. Period.
“Peter Hobbs and Me: Conflict Followed by Reconciliation.”
I went from seeing misconduct in a journal while working in Colorado in the early 1970s to another kind of science conflict when arriving at the University of Washington; the misappropriation of credit that had embittered some members of the group I had just joined in 1976. I got sensitized to this issue immediately by professors and staff members. I eventually resigned from a job I loved in December 1985 in protest over this issue submitting a 27 page tome to Peter about it. But, by December 1987, I was rehired by Peter Hobbs! There were no further credit issues! What a story. I’m still amazed! I could not have done what I did without him.
“The Nightmare Before Banff”
A Science ‘Coming Out Party’ for a Cloud Seeding Activist Who Had Never Before Presented at a Conference.”
I saw months in advance in the Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. program for Banff that it was going to be reviewed by the seeding experimenters whose work I had reanalyzed before I gave it! “WTF.” I had months of palpitations concerning my upcoming and sure humiliation at Banff. But the evening before my presentation, the lead professor of the experiment I showed was due to a natural storm bias he told me they weren’t going to talk about my paper.
“The Trials and Travesties of a Seattle Mariners Batting Practice Pitcher.”
Yeah, I did that for a couple of years inn the Kingdome in the early 1980s before I was fired for throwing balls that had “movement” (cutting the ball) a backup catcher said. Maybe, too, for beaning Joe Simpson in the knee, the Mariners’ center fielder…
And maybe one entire life chapter about that 1960 baseball game in which I got my third hit, a walk off single in the 10th inning to defeat the hated L. A. Dodger Rookies. The Rookies was a premier baseball team that no one on my White Front Redlegs team was good enough to make. Let us review that historic game here as I do everyday:
Brain now empty,