Summer-like clouds bring a trace of rain, thunder to Catalina

The Cottonwoods1 Daily Trash Report

Graphic of the Cottonwoods Trash Report.
Graphic of the Cottonwoods Trash Report.

Litterfolk continue to prefer Bud Light cans and bottles over craft beers.   While its interesting to make these surveys, CMP reminds readers, “Litter responsibly;  in a receptacle.”

The trash you see here was collected during a single trip to the Sutherland Wash and back.

The Sutherland Wash Flow Report

A  little water has resumed flowing in the Sutherland Wash hereabouts due to our recent rain:

The Sutherland Wash yesterday near the Baby Jesus Trail Head.
The Sutherland Wash yesterday near the Baby Jesus Trail Head.  Dog head also included.

The Cottonwoods Blowdown Report

The wind damage below was confined to an area only about 100 yards wide, and at the bottom of a small canyon leading down from Samaniego Ridge.  Once suspects that a narrow microburst, some supergust,  hit just in here as a rivulet of air collapsed down from the east-northeast after having gone over the mountains.   It was likely further funneled by that little canyon and blasted these poor trees.

DSC_4792
Note shoe size in lower left of photo.

DSC_4791 DSC_4795 DSC_4798 DSC_4799Yesterday’s clouds report

Cumulus got off to an early start, a line of Cumulonimbus to the north providing a hint of what was to come when the sun came out.

7:06 AM. Cumulonimbus line the northern horizon.
7:06 AM. Cumulonimbus line the northern horizon.
7:07 AM. An interesting set of very narrow shadows appeared briefly. The darker one might have been due to a young contrail.
7:07 AM. An interesting set of very narrow shadows appeared briefly. The darker one might have been due to a young contrail.  They seem too narrow to have been caused by cloud turrets.
10:34 AM. Cumulus congestus arose early and often on the Catalinas, becoming Cumulonimbus clouds later in the afternoon.
10:34 AM. Cumulus congestus clouds arose early and often on the Catalinas, becoming Cumulonimbus clouds later in the afternoon.
12:07 PM. Some Cumulus congestus clouds sported the rarely seen "pileus" cap, suggesting stronger than usual updrafts pushing moist air above the top upward slightly, just enough to form a sliver of cloud.
12:07 PM. Some Cumulus congestus clouds sported the rarely seen “pileus” cap, suggesting stronger than usual updrafts pushing moist air above the top upward slightly, just enough to form a sliver of cloud.
DSC_4824
12:07 PM.
12:54 PM. Before long, 47 minutes actually, big complexes of Cumulonimbus capillatus had formed to the north, and distant SW of Catalina.
12:54 PM. Before long, 47 minutes actually, big complexes of Cumulonimbus capillatus had formed to the north, and distant SW of Catalina.
1:47 PM. While pretty, this expansive Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (has an anvil), pointed to a potential rain-inhibiting problem: perhaps the exuberant convection would lead to an over-anvilated sky? Yes, it became a concern to all of us.
1:47 PM. While pretty, but this expansive Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (has an anvil), pointed to a potential rain-inhibiting problem: perhaps the exuberant convection would lead to an over-anvilated sky? Yes, it became a concern, I’m sure to all of us.  Cumulus cloud killing anvilation.
3:54 PM. While lightning forked in distant rainshafts, overanvilation pretty much terminated any chance of rain for Catalina due to Cumulus buildups. The anvil debris clouds are termed, Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus.
3:54 PM. While lightning forked in distant rainshafts, over-anvilation pretty much terminated any chance of rain in Catalina due to Cumulus buildups. The anvil debris clouds are termed, “Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus.”  Only clashing winds due to outflows from showers could possibly force rain now.
4:43 PM. Clashing shower winds (SW in Catalina, NE towards Oracle) did produce a large final shower in the area.
4:43 PM. Clashing shower winds (SW in Catalina, NE towards Oracle) did produce a large final shower in the area.  That lower cloud on the left side marks the area above and a little behind outflowing NE winds.  Sadly, that wind push from the NE, one that could have launched a big shower here, fizzled out.

The weather ahead and WAY ahead report

More pretty Cumulus clouds today, likely some will reach Cumulonimbus stage (develop ice) and shower here and there.  Flow will be off the Cat Mountains and so we here in Catalinaland are a little more elgible for a shower building on those mountains and drifting this way.

WAY ahead?

The models continue to occasionally produce a very heavy rainstorm in southern AZ on or about April Fool’s Day, once again appearing yesterday on the 18 Z (11 AM AST) run.  See below,  a really pretty astounding prediction again.  This system comes from deep in the Tropics, so deep you wonder if it might have some hair from a giant Galapagos tortoise with it.  It comes and goes in the models, but there is continuing  modest support for a low latitude trough to affect Arizona in the “ensemble” outputs, or “spaghetti” plots.2015031918_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3002015031918_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_312

The End

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1“The Cottonwoods” is a local name given to a portion of the Sutherland Wash next to the Baby Jesus Trail Head.  It appears on most trail maps, and is a popular spot for underage drinking parties on weekends.

Rain! 0.24 inches of it; more in mountains!

Pima County Regional Flood Control District ALERT System:  Precipitation Report

Precipitation Report for the following time periods ending at: 05:19:00  03/19/15 (data updated every 15 minutes)
Data is preliminary and unedited.
—- indicates missing data

Gauge   24 h total   Name                            Location
ID#

Catalina Area
    1010     0.20      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Rd in Saddlebrooke
    1020     0.20      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mi SW of Oracle
    1040     0.24      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Rd 1.3 mi E of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050     0.31      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 mi W of Charouleau Gap
    1060     0.20      Pig Spring                   approximately 1.1 mi NE of Charouleau Gap
    1070      ——1      Cargodera Canyon             NE corner of Catalina State Park
    1080     0.24      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash NE of Saddlebrooke
    1100     0.16      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Rd

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030     0.39      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 mi N of Rice Peak
    1090      0.43      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110      0.24      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 mi S of Coronado Camp
    1130     0.51      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140     0.47      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150     0.59      White Tail                   Catalina Hwy 0.8 mi W of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280     0.63      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290     0.39      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 mi SSE of Marshall Gulch

More rain is possible, but likely less than yesterday.  For the best possible forecast at this hour, check out the U of AZ model.

And why izzat, more precip in mountains?

Let us turn to the cartoons of Rangno 101, summer of 1987, below, where Rangno was forced into teaching a 101 summer class that year in the Dept of Atmos Sci2, University of Washington,  when the Ph. D. student that was supposed to do it opted out a the last second, maybe transferred to another team.  U of WA accreditation suffered  that summer because Rangno did not have the Ph. D., nor even the Masters Degree and yet he was teaching a class.  How wrong is that?  It can’t be worse than that.

Illustrative diagram of why more in mountains: collection, lack of evaporation. Its kind of what we had yesterday for most of the day. Lower Stratocumulus accumulating on the upwind side of the Catalina Mountains, including Samaniego Ridge.
Illustrative diagram of why more in mountains: collection, lack of evaporation. Its kind of what we had yesterday for most of the day. Lower Stratocumulus clouds accumulating on the upwind side of the Catalina Mountains, including Samaniego Ridge, while rain/snow falls from a higher deck.  Sometimes this has been called the “seeder-feeder” situation, where the lower cloud is the “feeder.”  “Bellevue” should be Catalina, and the “Cascades”, the Catalina Mountains.  The main point is that the “feeder” cloud may not precip on its on, but stuff that falls into it gets bigger, increases precip rate.

To emphasize what happens to a drop falling through a collectible cloud, I now show this analog:

An image of precipitation particles arranged by size. Represents what happens when a smaller drop falls into a cloud with droplets above about 20 microns in diameter. They can't get out of the way fast enough and so are collected by that falling particle. Could be a snowflake or single ice crystal, too, that fell into the droplet cloud.
An image of precipitation particles arranged by size. Represents what happens when a smaller drop falls into a cloud with droplets above about 20 microns in diameter. They can’t get out of the way fast enough and so are collected by that falling particle. Could be a snowflake or single ice crystal, too, that fell into the droplet cloud.
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3:30 PM. Lower Stratocumulus builds over Pusch Ridge on a dank afternoon.
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3:31 PM. Looking at Samaniego Ridge, You can see how the lower clouds are enhanced as the air piles up (gently yesterday) against the mountains.

The incredible weather predicted way out there on the horizon

“Jumbotron” AZ storm showed up again yesterday, in a the second model output.  These forecast maps are AMAZING in showing what must be equal to the heaviest rains ever observed in an April in southern AZ.  Check this series out (from IPS MeteoStar).  I can’t can’t describe how much I love these maps, and I felt, even though the model run is now almost 24 h old (from yesterday’s 12 Z run), that you should see them, too.  More importantly,  I will ALWAYS have them to look at since they will be overwritten by the next 12 Z run, but they will still be in my blog files.  The NOAA “spaghetti” plots has a little support for a trough coming out of the lower latitudes, so we can likely expect something at the beginning of April.

Valid March 31st, 5 PM AST. Possible big rain moves in from the low latitudes.
Valid March 31st, 5 PM AST. Possible big rain moves in from the low latitudes.
Valid Wednesday, April 1st, 5 AM AST. LOOK at the rain that moves into AZ!
Valid Wednesday, April 1st, 5 AM AST. LOOK at the rain that moves into AZ!
Valid Wednesday, at 5 PM AST. Unbelievable for April. Hope it doesn't turn out that way.
Valid Wednesday, at 5 PM AST. Unbelievable for April. Hope it doesn’t turn out that way.
Valid at 5 AM AST, April 2nd.
Valid at 5 AM AST, April 2nd.  The pounding goes on.
Valid at 5 PM AST, April 2nd. Two day rains of unprecedented model proportions come to a close.
Valid at 5 PM AST, April 2nd. Two day rains of unprecedented model proportions come to a close.

 

The End

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1Looked OK when we rode by it a coupla days ago…

2:55 PM, March 15th. The Cargodera gauge is shown underneath the gigantic writing.
2:55 PM, March 15th. The Cargodera Canyon gauge is shown underneath the gigantic writing.

2Widely regarded as the best atmos sci department in the world until that time; you walked the halls with giants in those days.

Yesterday’s clouds; and an April Fool’s Day storm to think about

Kind of a dull day yesterday.  Not much to look at.  Some Altocumulus with an interesting, slotted wave pattern to start was about the only interesting thing in the morning.

Then some small Cumulus that continued to agglomerate into masses of dark Stratocumulus, with a little rain to the north of us.  You probably didn’t see it.   The darkness of the clouds was likely due to higher than normal droplet concentrations, which in clouds, causes the bottoms to be darker because the smaller droplets associated with high droplet concentrations causes more sunlight to be reflected off the top of clouds.  But you knew that.

You probably also know that the brief, and weak shafts of rain to the north of us in the afternoon meant that cloud tops were barely reaching the ice-forming level, certainly were mounding ones, analogous to the rolling hills of Ireland rather than ones protruding upward very much like Kilimanjaro or something like that.

Sunset was OK, not great.

A stupendous storm showed up in the fantasy part of the model run, out two weeks, or on April 1st.  That’s a little late for a stupendous storm, but it was fun seeing the computer maps of one.

Today, and not just because I am lazy and have to go right now to feed some horses, I thought I would just insert all these images in whatever way WordPress decided they should go and let you puzzle them out, e.g., name clouds, figure out what time was the photo taken, or, just look at them as a review of your cloud day.

Btw, whilst out on dog walk yesterday, saw that in the Cottonwoods area by the Baby Jesus Trailhead, several 6-9 inch diameter cottonwood tree branches were blown down during Sunday’s windstorm, one younger tree had been topped.  Looked like a very small, supergust burst had done it, maybe less than 50 yards in diameter.

I figure today’s weather is pretty well presented by the NWS, and your favorite weathercaster, so why duplicate good efforts?

10:47 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus undulatus (has waves in it).
10:47 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus undulatus translucidus  (has waves in it;  is thin).

DSC_47412015031712_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_3722015031712_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_3602015031712_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3722015031712_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360 DSC_4748 DSC_4738 DSC_4726 DSC_4724

The End, of one of the easiest blogs yet!  Maybe will practice more WordPress chaos in the future!

Dust cloud day

Sample frame from a video running when the peak gust hit, estimated at over 60 mph by “yours truly”, if that is, in fact, the case.  Some roofing material blew off, too.

gust
Equestrian Trail Road spewing dust, estimated peak puff gust, in this King of the Gusts, 60-70 mph. Only lasted a few seconds. Not mashed plants due to winds.

Cloud Maven Person was doing other things, not thinking about weather, when he finally began to notice that the winds in “The Heights” were approaching 100 mph1; great clouds of dust suddenly rose up from our dirt streets;  dogs blowing ahead of him on his dog walk when going westbound on a dog walk,  sandy grit sanding off the hair on the back of his legs. You get the picture.

Well, it was caused by an unusual situation of wind coming OVER the Catalina Mountains, which usually block east winds from us quite well, while the city of TUS gets ripped.

Too, yesterday might have been like that situation some of you remember that affected  California’s San Joaquin Valley in December 1977.   Winds, forced OVER the Sierra Nevadas,  then collapsed down on poor Bakersfield and vicinity, the air accelerating as it fell down the Sierra mountainsides going faster and faster, driven by a HUGE high pressure inland over Nevada, and lower pressures offshore, peaked at 130 mph!

Something similar to that situation may have been what happened yesterday here in Sutherland Heights.   Both Froude and Richardson Numbers, to throw in some high sounding terms that characterize flow,  along with the strength of the winds piling up against the Catalinas on the east side, were just right so that the air went OVER the Catalinas instead of around them.  End of potential explanation.

Below is yesterday’s TUS U of AZ launched sounding from IPS MeteoStar, which still isn’t charging anything to look at their stuff even though they said they would:

Ann 2015031512Z_SKEWT_KTUS
The TUS balloon sounding for 5 AM AST yesterday morning as the winds were picking up.  The arrows are point to stable layers where the air, as the winds piled it up against the Catalinas, were resisting being lifted, and under less forceful winds, likely would have gone around the Catalinas instead of over.  But those two layers being raised up by the wind,  the air more impetus to go down the west side of the Catalinas after it was forced over the top.  Those wind barbs of the right indicate that the winds were banging against the Catalinas as 40-50 mph near the top of Mt. Lemmon, and 50-60 mph not much higher above the top.

 

Corroborative data: on 2 h dog walk just after sunrise, taking them on the ridge on the east side of the Sutherland Wash2 , the wind on the ridge was coming right at us from Ms. Mt. Lemmon, of all places! Very unusual.  Closer to The Heights, the wind turned more more from the northeast.

Oddly, just down on Swan below us, the wind were not unusual at all, only 20-30 mph, one experienced observer reported. That kind of microscale thing happens in these situations,  when the air finds channels in canyons and gulleys, so “oddly” really doesn’t apply, and I don’t know why I said it.

Well, that’s what I think happened;  air accelerated downhill after being pushed over the top of the Catalinas,  and gave us extra strong gusts.

Did you notice that during the winds, it could almost be calm, but you could hear another gust approaching like the roar of a gushing river out there in the desert?  That was cool.

The weather ahead.

Mods continue to indicate a showery SE Arizona for a few days beginning tomorrow in the extreme SE as weak troughs in the southern band of the jet “influx” some mid-level and higher moist layers to begin with.  Water vapor already increasing over us, so maybe we’ll see an Altocumulus cloud later today.

Aerosol forecast:  Look for enhanced smog with this air mass coming from the south and southeast.  Dang.

The End.

—————————

1If you round up from 60 or 70 mph in those momentary, less than 1 or 2 second blasts.

2Which still had water in it in some parts, but not at the Cottonwoods anymore.

The Sutherland Wash at the Rusty Gate horse crossing.
The Sutherland Wash at the Rusty Gate horse crossing yesterday morning.  The water disappeared here, too.
The Rusty Gate.
The Rusty Gate.

Catalina embraces a second day of rain

Drops, that is.   There were about 140 or so the night before last, noticeable only  if you left your dusty car outside, and TWO drops yesterday between 4:08:22  and 4:08:51 PM, as the last remnant of a shower cloud moved overhead from The Gap (the Charouleau one).

You HAD to be outside running around to encounter them, I do mean “running”, to increase the sample volume and your chances of detecting a drop in marginal rain situations. You have to  “want it”,  to be the best you can be about traces, that is.  And I wanted to report another trace real bad.  I love to report traces of rain, the most underrepresented rain event of all, the poor relative of measurable rain.

And, of course, more shower chances ahead, March 17th through the 20th, as remnant of the upper level trough that produced our last two days of clouds and sprinkles returns to us like a boomerang after producing generous rains in Mexico.  It also meshes with a weak trough from the Pac at this time, so its pretty troughy for a few of days.   Nice.

Today’s cloud pic archive will begin with the sunset the evening before last, since domestic responsibilities1 prohibited posting the usual tedious cloud array yesterday.

6:32 PM, March 12th. Rosy glow, a nice name for a female western singer, bloomed late in the day (was less than expected that day). Lots of virga spewing out of iced up Stratocumulus clouds.
6:32 PM, March 12th. Rosy glow, a nice name for a female western singer, as well as a sunset, that bloomed late in the day (was less spectacular than expected that day, but still something). Lots of virga spewing out of iced up, high and cold-based,  Stratocumulus clouds.  Since you wanna know more, the TUS sounding indicated bases at -10 C, and tops at -20 C (4 F), that latter temperature explaining all the ice that formed that day.

Yesterday’s clouds

The temperature structure aloft was pretty much the same as the previous day, except that cloud bases were slightly lower and warmer, “only” -7 C or so, with tops again around -20 C (4 F), plenty cold enough for plenty of ice and virga from the modest Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds that developed later in the morning.

Rainshafts were that tiny bit heavier it appeared, seeming to reach the ground with more gusto than the similar day before.

DSC_4577
11:44 AM. Groups of small Cumulus began forming over the mountains.
DSC_4579
1:23 PM. Cumulus and Stratocumulus fill in the sky. Slight virga is apparent if you look really hard.
DSC_4598
2:29 PM. A light rainshower douses Marana and vicinity. Note the rumpled top of this cloud suggesting dominance of the water phase with just ice underneath. The dark bottom of the cloud is often called a “cloud base” by pilots, but is really the transition zone where the snow is melting into the more transparent rain and is not really a Cumulus cloud base, one composed of droplets forming in an updraft,  as in the prior photo.

DSC_4608

Rain shaft on The Gap. Can you detect it? Its coming right at us! Here's where the responsible observer realizes that he must be outside, or provide another means of detecting isolated drops.
3:58 PM.   Rain shaft on The Gap. Can you detect it? Its coming right at us! Here’s where the responsible observer realizes that he must be outside, or provide another means of detecting isolated drops as the cloud head begins to pass.

And, below, why we love our mountains and desert, especially on these kinds of days.  About this time, the “light show” begins, ending with a dramatic sunset.

6:14 PM. Even the horrible becomes beautiful in the evening light.
6:14 PM. Even the horrible becomes beautiful in the evening light.

DSC_4662 DSC_4654 DSC_4648 The End

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1I had to take my mom, whose she’s really old and fragile,  to the doctor ,  and then to the supermarket.  This personal information posted for the purpose of inducing empathy in case I have a really bad forecast.  People will remember that I take my mom places.

Frequent model rains continue to fall around Catalina in the weeks ahead

This link will bring up  the window below.   There’s a little tutorial below on what to do once when you get to this window:NOAA MODEL OUTPUTS WINDOWWhen you get to this page, the latest model run data will come up in red.  Here, to see precipitation in colors on a map, click on the  name, “1000_500_thick” for the best view of the many Arizona precipitation days ahead.     You will see the precipitation totals for three (or six hours late in the model run) for the next 15 days as calculated by the WRF-GFS model, considered OUR best, but not as good as the Euro model some say1.

This is the same stuff that is rendered so nicely by IPS MeteoStar.  I thought I would take you to the source, since its available an hour or two before the IPS renderings are completed.

In sum, its pretty amazing to see this many days with rain predicted so late in March and I thought you should see it, maybe brighten your day up.

Below , your March rain parade, a list of the NINE days with rain in the “general2” Catalina area from this latest model run based on global obs at 11 PM AST last night:

12   RW- VCTY3 (today)

13   RW- VCTY (recall, too, that spaghetti suggested an enhanced chance of rain between March 11-15th some coupla weeks ago)

14, 15, 16, 17  No rain indicated on these days

18  RW- VCTY

19  RW- VCTY

20  RW- VCTY

21  R4

22  RW- VCTY

23, 24, 25  No rain indicated on these days

26  RW- VCTY

27  R

Below, a peak at the latest 15 day spaghetti plot based on last evening’s 5 PM AST global data.  I think you can see that there will be a lot going on in 15 days …

Valid at 5 PM AST, March 26th.
Valid at 5 PM AST, March 26th.

Your cloud day today

Heavy dense deep middle clouds with sprinkles in the area are passing overhead now.  Will give way to an at least partial clearing in the late afternoon, meaning a great sunset is likely.

Rain not likely to be measurable today.

Yesterday’s cloud shot

5:29 PM. Nice display of Altocumulus castellanus virgae with some Cirrus and Cirrocumulus above them. Note the tufted, or protruding top of Altocumulus cloud in the center.
5:29 PM. Nice display of Altocumulus castellanus virgae with some Cirrus and Cirrocumulus above them. Note the tufted, or protruding top4 of Altocumulus cloud in the center.

 

 

———————–

1Remember how Superstorm Sandy, the one that battered the East Coast a couple of years ago,  was better predicted by Euro mod rather than our own model, causing quite a weather flap?

2“General” is taken here as any rain that falls within a 10 mi radius of Catalina.

3“RW-  VCTY” is text for “Light rain showers in the vicinity” (of Catalina, not necessarily ON Catalina, but we hope so.

4“R”, indicates steady rain of moderate intensity, namely that the models are predicting more substantial rain here where an “R” appears.

5As soon as I formulated this description about a protruding or tufted top, I realized it could be taken as untoward, perhaps even a salacious reference.   Are we men so cursed that it’s always about the woman, the things we think6?

6As a further example, on a Cumulus cloud study in the Marshall Islands, I was acting as the person responsible for which clouds to sample with our research aircraft7,  I noted a newly risen Cumulus turret a minute or two ahead, on the right.  Speaking to the Director of the Cloud and Aerosol Group, Peter Hobbs, I reported over the intercom that there was a “young, firm, protuberant Cumulus cloud at 2 O’clock”, “Shall we penetrate it?”,  I asked.

“Yes, they’re the best ones”,  Peter replied.

The all male crew burst out laughing.

Q. E. D.

7A Convair 580 Turboprop.  See below:

The Cloud and Aerosol Research Group's Convair 580 readying for takeoff at Paine Field, Everett, WA.
The Cloud and Aerosol Research Group’s Convair 580 readying for takeoff at Paine Field, Everett, WA.

More rain to fall in March; water STILL running in the Sutherland Wash!

The author has made two claims.  Let us look at the evidence, the first of which was obtained yesterday morning in support of one of those.  A hiker/walker, the author met, we will call him, “Bob”,  though it seems doubtful that’s his real name since he had quite a strong northern European accent,  said there was no running water in the Sutherland Wash, “only dampness.”

This proved to be an incorrect statement.  I wonder how many other people I have corrected just now?

The wash has now been running without interruption for about six weeks.  Below, two photos with dogs in them taken yesterday of the flowing Sutherland  Wash at the Baby Jesus trail head, aka, “The Cottonwoods”:

DSCN9669
8:42 AM. The Sutherland Wash in flow near the Baby Jesus trail head.
DSCN9670
8:42 AM. Dog ponders a drink from the FLOWING Sutherland Wash at the Baby Jesus trail head.

Q. E. D.

2) Can it rain again in March in the Sutherland Heights (epicenter of the above titular forecast)?

It could, but the assertion by the author is stronger than “could.”  Let us again look at the evidence for such a claim.

There are several opportunities for rain here during the remainder of March.

1) the upper low that goes over tomorrow and Friday will produce scattered mountain showers in the area;  a sure thing, but  light ones.

2) then that SAME low, after nesting in the Tropics for a couple of days comes back over us with an even greater chance of rain next week since its had a chance to scoop up some tropical air (think Altocumulus castellanus, unstable clouds that can become little Cumulonimbus clouds).

3) In the longer term, “troughiness” (“cyclonicity”) is indicated to reside in our Great Southwest by spaghetti maps.  Some individual model runs have even had big rains in the area in 12-15 days from now.   Below, an example from IPS MeteoStar, which for some reason did not follow through on the “fee-for-service” they had been announcing was coming for about three months so’s that we would have to pay to look at their nice renderings of government model stuff1:

Boffo trough bops Arizona on
Boffo trough bops Arizona on…ooops, annotated version below to help you locate Arizona on this map.
Forecast map valid at
Forecast map valid on March 25th at 5 PM AST.

Another example of the wettest model run I could find, trillions and trillions of galloons of water released in storms in the SW:

Forecast map valid on Saturday, March 21st at 11 AM AST.
Forecast map valid on Saturday, March 21st at 11 AM AST.

So, at LEAST three or four days in the remaining days of March with a chance of measurable rain, and THAT equals 100 % chance of rain falling within a 10 mile radius of the Sutherland Heights housing district between now and, and pushing the forecasting frontier even farther, say, the end of March!  Going that far with such high confidence (100%) forecast is inappropriate for professional forecasting, but not here.  So, this is a forecast for measurable rain on or VERY near us covering an amazing 19 days!

BTW, spaghetti thinks a trough of the magnitude above is goofy; see below.  HOWEVER, there is a pretty strong tendency for cyclonic action here, just not as strong as the one above.  The one above is likely goofy, an outlier model run….at this time.  But, just like that New England win over the Seahawks in the last second when the Seahawks were about to run it in, but goofily passed the ball instead for an interception, outliers do occur.

Will keep an eye on this fun forecast from this keyboard,  and get back to you from time to time IF it rains in the area.  Otherwise, you will not hear from me again on this matter.

Below, some morning spaghetti for you.

Valid at 5 PM AST, March 26th. No sign of bluish lines penetrating the SW US. However, red lines, southern portion of jet stream, do dip southward over the SE and northern Mexico, indicating a good chance of lower latitude troughs here at the time of this map.
Valid at 5 PM AST, March 26th. No sign of bluish lines, representing the heart of the jet stream penetrating the SW US as shown in that model run above.    However, red lines, southern portion of jet stream, do dip southward over the SE and northern Mexico, indicating a good chance of lower latitude troughs here at the time of this map.  Note that the blue and red lines suggest an “out of phase” jet stream pattern, highs in the far north, disturbances leaking into the SW US underneath them.

So hope for additional rain before the end of March is not dead, as it seems today, but has much life, in fact, to repeat, “100%” life.

The End

 

——————

1Whew!

 

 

Cirrus enigma; medium-sized Cumulus clouds snow away

First, you should always begin your day, not with the breakfast of champions, but by reviewing the prior day’s clouds in the University of Arizona time lapse movie.    Here’s what you will see:

Lots of Cirrus, varies species, Altocumulus, Cirrocumulus, a high temperature contrail go through some Cirrocumulus just after 4 PM, and flocks of medium-sized Cumulus clouds emitting ice.

First, one interesting, but inexplicable Cirrus scene.  I know you were likely going to ask Mr. Cloud Maven Person, “Hey, what gives here?”  I get a lot of calls like that1.

1:15 PM. That tuft of Cirrus on the right seems to have trails of ice falling out then coming together. There is no explanation for this since the wind has to blowing 1) from the same direction at the head, and then changing direction/speed ("shear") at the same rate underneath the cloud.
1:15 PM. That tuft of Cirrus on the right seems to have trails of ice falling out then coming together, almost like they missed each other and want to be together as snow trails until evaporating away.   There is no explanation for this2 so I will next post a distraction. (Remember, when you can’t explain something, and this is a life hint, you can either talk around the question without answering it,  beginning with, “I’m glad you asked me that question…..” when you’re lying and really NOT glad, or launch a distraction.  Here, we launch a distraction.

“I don’t know how that happened; let look at a flower instead”:

Seen yesterday morning on a dog walk.
Seen yesterday morning on a dog walk, evening primrose.  Pretty restful image; problems gone…

In the meantime, after being flustered over a cloud in the early afternoon, those Cumulus clouds aroiund, only two or three thousand feet thick were beginning to snow away, first way off to the south of us, then downstream of the Cat2 Mountains.

Here is the rest of your interesting and learningful cloud day yesterday:

7:17 AM. Riff of Altocumulus castellanus/floccus to the north. Remember in Cloud Maven's Person's poster-sized cloud chart it says when you see this cloud it could rain in 6 to 196 hours, as it does for all the clouds in it.
7:17 AM. Riff of Altocumulus castellanus/floccus to the north. Remember in Cloud Maven’s Person’s poster-sized cloud chart it says when you see this cloud it could rain in 6 to 196 hours, as it does for all the cloud formations in it.
7:18 AM. Iridescence in a patch of Cirrocumulus, indicating that the droplets comprising it were very tiny, less than 10 or so microns in diameter (one tenth the diameter of a human hair).
7:18 AM. Iridescence in a patch of Cirrocumulus, indicating that the droplets comprising it were very tiny, less than 10 or so microns in diameter (one tenth the diameter of a human hair).  It could rain in 6 to 196 hours when you see this cloud….
9:43 AM. Cirrus, various species, overspread the sky. Blockage of some Cirrus by a bird of some kind, lower center.
9:43 AM. Cirrus, various species/varieties overspread the sky. Blockage of some Cirrus here by a bird of some kind, lower center.

Moving ahead…..

1:14 PM. The cloud-maven cloud indicator blimp was positioned to draw your attention to some building Cumulus clouds southwest of us. No ice evident.
1:14 PM. The cloud-maven cloud indicator blimp was positioned to draw your attention to some building Cumulus clouds southwest of us. No ice evident, but was soon after this shot.

 

2:47 PM. Cumulus complex shows no ice, but its up there inside, as you would have known from looking at other similar-sized clouds.
2:47 PM. Cumulus complex shows no ice, but its up there inside, as you would have known from looking at other similar-sized clouds.
3:02 PM. Droop der it is! Virga, there it is, downwind end of cloud stream.
3:02 PM. “Droop,  there it is!” Virga, there it is, drooping out just below the farthest cloud bottom downwind end of this cloud stream.
3:17 PM. Virga's pretty obvious now.
3:17 PM. Virga’s pretty obvious now (above that protruding tree in the distance.  Cloud that produced this virga likely no thicker than the white backed one at the start of the cloud stream, etimated depth, 2000-3000 feet.  Bases, however, were about -8 to -10 C (18-14 F)!  Tops, of clouds even that shallow,  were really COLD, maybe to -15 to -20 C (down to 4 F)!  But you would have guessed this anyway based on the amount of ice coming out of such shallow clouds.  Sorry to insult your Cloud Maven Junior intelligence..
3:23 PM. Getting excited here so zoomed in for you. A sprinkle of rain was likely reaching the ground
3:23 PM. Getting excited here so zoomed in for you. A sprinkle of rain was likely reaching the ground.  Here you can see how cold the cloud bases were since that whiteness in the shaft is snow.  Where it has completely melted into rain drops is where the bottom of that whiteness ends,  The freezing level is typically about a thousand feet higher than where than whiteness ends below cloud base in steady, not too heavy precip, which is what we have here.  Small clouds can’t precip too much.  That snow is hanging down about 3,000 feet.
DSC_4437
4:34 PM. A streamer of shallow clouds forming ice heads out from the south toward Oro Valley from Tucson. Estimated depth, 2000-3000 feet is all.
4:34 PM. Zoomed view of some of the ice in this cloud with an education module inserted into the photo, wrecking it some.
4:34 PM. Zoomed view of some of the ice in this cloud with an education module inserted into the photo, wrecking it some.  Concentrations here likely around 1 per liter of ice crystals.  If depth correct, the crystal habit will be stellars  (“Christmas card” crystals) and dendrites, ones that form between -13 C and -18 C.
The TUS balloon sounding (AKA, rawinsonde for technophiles) launched around 3:30 PM AST yesterday afternoon (from IPS MeteoStar).
The TUS balloon sounding (AKA, rawinsonde for technophiles) launched around 3:30 PM AST yesterday afternoon (from IPS MeteoStar).  Sounding calculates a cloud base of about -9 C, at about 10,000 feet above the ground (over Catalina).   That is cold!  Cloud base is just about where the two lines come together at the bottom.
5:46 PM. Mock sun or parhelia; couldn't tell if is was due to the lower ice cloud, or a Cirrus way above. Caused by hexagonal (six-sided) plate-like crystals falling face down.
5:46 PM. Mock sun or parhelia; couldn’t tell if is was due to the lower ice cloud, or a Cirrus way above. Caused by hexagonal (six-sided) plate-like crystals falling face down.  What a great optical phenomena day it was for you, starting out with a nice iridescence!
6:25 PM. Sunset photos continue to get later and later. These shallow clouds continued to produce virga into the evening hours.
6:25 PM. Sunset photos continue to get later and later. These shallow clouds continued to produce virga into the evening hours.

There’s still water in the Sutherland Wash.   Its been running now since the end of January!  Amazing.

The End

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1FYI,  this is a lie.

2I suppose someone could posit that “Dark Magic”, oops,  “Dark Energy” may have caused those trails to “come together over me” , by Lennon and McCartney.  “Dark Magic”, OOPs. “Dark Energy”, dammitall, is invoked to explain a lot of impossible things, like how the Universe blew up from something smaller than the head of a pin (!) and was 200 million light YEARS across in the tiniest fraction of a ONE second.   Clearly impossible without magic, oops, Dark Energy.   This impossibility was deduced on cosmic microwave radiation measurements at the farthest edges of the Universe as we know it.

However, instead of checking their measurements, cosmos (not Cosmos Topper of early movie fame with Carey Grant, but cosmos scientists that study the cosmos  invented Dark Magic, oops, Dark Energy, dammitall again,  to explain how something that’s impossible happened.

Recently, cosmos scientists retracted that finding and said their measurements in retrospect were likely compromised by cosmos dust.  How funny izzat?  Sure, I am a weather man and make a LOT of errors myself,  but that cosmos one is pretty big.

Just kidding, cosmos guys,  the cosmos is tough.  Science mag reported that only 4 % of the visible Univserse is made up of  known stuff, 96% (gasp) is made up of Dark Matter (23%), and 73%, of “Dark Magic”, oops again, “Dark Energy”, that stuff that is still thought to be behind the increasingly rapid expansion of the Universe3.   That is, 96% of the Universe is composed of stuff we’re clueless about.

3It was originally posited that the expansion of the Universe should be slowing down until around the 1990s, when measurements indicated it was speeding up.  Hmmmmm.  Will there be a retraction of that claim, too, in our future?  Stand by for more measurements.  Just kidding, cosmos guys.  Try being a weatherman….

Light shower with graupel falls on Catalina Mountains!

Happened around noon yesterday.  I could see it from here that the shaft consisted of graupel mixed with some rain.   Nice video of this exceptionalism-of-the-day event here from the U of AZ.

Its interesting to me, and to you, too, most likely, was that yesterday it was asserted here that there would be no ice in the “small” Cumulus clouds that were expected to form during the day.   And yet we had a momentary Cumulonimbus cloud with a ton of ice and a graupel/rain/snow shaft!  Huh.

In  related1 distractive headlines:

Fields of gold erupt in Catalina!

Hours:  10 AM to 3 PM, M-S, otherwise closed.  Why do they do that?  You won’t find the answer here, so move along now…

4:00 PM yesterday, on hills west of Spirit Dog Ranch. Numerous poppy flourishes in this area. On horseback ahead, Nora Bowers, co-author of the popular guide, WIldflowers of Arizona.
4:00 PM yesterday, on hills west of Spirit Dog Ranch. Numerous poppy flourishes in this area. On horseback,, Nora Bowers, co-author of the popular guide, Wildflowers of Arizona.  Those poppy blossoms were pretty much closed here.  You really should get out and see them if you can.  Well, worth it.

Rasslin’ Dogs!

"Emma" border collie, bottom, "Banjo", border terrier mix of some kind, top. 2-day old distractive photo.
“Emma” border collie, bottom, “Banjo”, border terrier mix of some kind, top. 2-day old distractive photo.  More distraction.  Few readers will likely go farther than this….

Yesterday’s clouds and explanations

8:22 AM. Elevated Stratocumulus, bases about 14, 000 feet above sea level, or about 11,000 feet above the ground here in Catalina.
8:22 AM. Altocumulus, bases about 14, 000 feet above sea level, or about 11,000 feet above the ground here in Catalina. The temperature at cloud top, via the TUS balloon sounding, was about -15 C  (5 F),  pretty cold for not having some virga or ice showing.  It happens.  There could be several reasons:  Lack of ice nuclei in that layer?  Tiny droplets, ones that resist freezing more than larger cloud drops?  Lack of mixing with very dry air above cloud top (it was moist all the way up to Cirrus levels))?  Mixing in very dry air at cloud top can lower the temperature of a drop a few degrees before it disappears completely, thus increasing the chance that it will freeze.  That last effect is mostly operating in Cumulus clouds whose tops can penetrate relatively far into very dry layers.  So, once again, we have no real answers, or maybe, all of them.  It is worth noting that going to -15 C here and no ice in a Cumulus cloud is a virtually unknown occurrence, one that speaks to ice nuclei, those specks of mineral dirt that are known to cause ice to form in clouds, like kaolinite, etc. originating in the boundary layer/dirt interface being a primary culprit.

 

10:49 AM. In fact (!), "small" Cumulus clouds DID form yesterday, hold the ice.
10:49 AM. In fact (!), “small” Cumulus clouds DID form yesterday, hold the ice.  Quite a forecasting triumph.
10:51 AM. While small Cumulus clouds pervaded the sky, there was an exception; the usual cloud street that forms off the Tortolita Mountains was trailing over Catalina and those clouds were at least of mediocris size, and due to the low freezing level yesterday, getting close to the ice-forming level for Cumulus clouds here of around -10 C (14 F). Was actually outside while it passed over, shifting to the south, as you probably were, hoping for a drop so's I could report a trace of rain today.
10:51 AM. While small Cumulus clouds pervaded the sky, there was an exception; the usual cloud street that forms off the Tortolita Mountains was trailing over Catalina and those clouds in it were at least of mediocris size (likely a km deep or so), and due to the low freezing level yesterday, getting close to the ice-forming level for Cumulus clouds here of around -10 C (14 F). Was actually outside, as you probably were, too,  as it passed over, shifting gradually to the south,  hoping for a drop so’s I could report a trace of rain today.  “Great weather folk don’t miss traces!”  (Dry-fit tee shirt in preparation….)
11:00 AM. Continuing prevalence of small, "docile" Cumulus clouds (ignore large dark cloud shadow at left).
11:00 AM. I want to keep reminding you of the prevalence of small, “docile” Cumulus clouds (ignore large dark cloud shadow at left).  Just trying to balance out the cloud day picture the way media balances things out, regardless of whether they are Democrats or Republicans.

 

11:52 AM. Graupel begins to fall from a Cumulus congestus just beyond Pusch Ridge. It would be hard to describe the magnitude of the embarrassment I began to feel having stated that there would be no ice. I realized I had been careless as a forecaster, not really looked hard enough at the conditions, the lapse rates. It was truly humiliating to see this happen. Oh, in case you can't see anything, the next photo is a blow of this humiliation as it began to take place.
11:52 AM. Graupel begins to fall from a Cumulus congestus just beyond Pusch Ridge. It would be hard to describe the magnitude of the embarrassment I began to feel having stated that there would be no ice. I realized I had been careless as a forecaster, not really looked hard enough at the conditions, the lapse rates. It was truly humiliating to see this happen. Oh, in case you can’t see anything, the next photo is a blow of this humiliation as it began to take place.
11:58 AM. Picture of graupel particles emitting from a cloud from 10 miles away.
11:58 AM. Picture of graupel particles emitting from a cloud from 10 miles away. Note fine strands, a sure sign of graupel especially on day with a low freezing level and cloud bases at below freezing temperatures.  Note too, ice is not visible at cloud top, something that indicated an abundance of droplets over ice crystals in the cloud, the conditions that lead to the rapid formation of graupel (soft hail).

 

12:10 PM. More humiliation and graupel, a forecasting disaster is in progress for all to see!
12:10 PM. More humiliation and graupel;  a forecasting disaster is in progress for all to see!

 

12:17 PM. Turret at left side, under fragment, appeared to be softening to the look of an icy composition that all would recognize immediately, but external ice composition not apparent yet.
12:17 PM. Turret at left side, under fragment, appeared to be softening to the look of an icy composition that all would recognize immediately, but external ice composition not apparent yet.  Note the “harder”, more cauliflower look of the turret on the right half of the photo, indicating an all liquid external composition.  Graupel was forming inside that right half,  though.

DSC_433812:29 PM.   Total icy humiliation.  The “cotton candy” transition of the prior turret to “Mr. Frosty” (left of center) was complete for all to see.  Looking toward Catalina, I could almost hear the laughter, “Calls himself a ‘cloud-maven’, said there wouldn’t be any ice today, and look at all that ice!  What joke!”  Now that the turret has become a modest Cumulonimbus, likely completely glaciated, the precipitation falling would be snowflakes (not graupel since the liquid water droplets are gone inside it)  melting into rain farther down.

4:21 PM. The clouds returned to their former "small", iceless, sizes for the rest of the day after the humiliating exception
4:21 PM. The clouds returned to their former “small”, ice-less, sizes for the rest of the day after the humiliating exception.

 

6:18 PM. Revealed in yesterday's near cloudless sunset, undulations in the ever present high altitude haze layers that circumscribe our planet. Layers like this, that are featureless except for the revealing waves causing the undulations, are extremely old, days, and are often reffered to as long range transport events because they likely traveled thousands of miles before arriving over Arizona. They are likely to be composed of old, old contrail emissions, emissions that have worked their way up in the atmosphere from over heated land surfaces, distant forest fires, and so on.
6:18 PM. Revealed in yesterday’s near cloudless sunset, undulations in the ever present high altitude haze layers that circumscribe our planet. Layers like this, that are featureless except for the revealing waves causing the undulations, are extremely old, days, and are often reffered to as long range transport events because they likely traveled thousands of miles before arriving over Arizona. They are likely to be composed of old, old contrail emissions, emissions that have worked their way up in the atmosphere from over heated land surfaces, distant forest fires, and so on.

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1Its not really related but sounds like something that should be said.

Qiet day in “Lake” Catalina; LA Times 1981 climate change quote

Do we really need the letter, “u” in “quiet”?  Just checking…  “Lake” is for all the puddles around right now in Catalina after the nice half inch to inch rain the day before yesterday.

There used to be actual lakes in Catalina, btw, “Twin Lakes” they were called, as old timers know.  That’s why we have a boat store here, and quite a few street names with nautical themes, like “hawser”,  the name of a big marine rope for towing boats.

Before launching into the usual tedious cloud discussion and photo barage, those one of you that got to the bottom of yesterday’s blog may have noticed that it linked to a LONG article in the venerable Los Angeles Times reviewing media weather forecasting as it was in 1981.   A friend and met man, Mark Albright,  actually READ the whole thing, and alerted me to the following INTERESTING quote in that LA Times article, which I thought you should see, too.

I’ll frame this with the old Consumer Reports header, “Quote Without Comment”:

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“Robert Cowen (Christian Science Monitor) says there is too much gullibility in newspapers about the possibility of climatic disaster. Too many reporters listen to people who want to make a reputation with wild predictions. Thus, even the nation’s better daily newspapers periodically publish stories under such headlines as “There’s Doom in the Air” and “The Sun Goes Bonkers” and “New Dust Bowl Could Bring Starvation” and “Ice Age Coming? Chilling Thought for Humanity.”

“Every time there’s a drought or a long hot spell, I get swamped with calls from reporters asking, ‘This means the climate is changing, doesn’t it?’ says Diane Johnson, head of information services for the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “All the media want to know usually is . . . ‘Is there a new Ice Age coming?’,” Johnson says. “They hardly ever want to know the whys or the imponderables.”
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Well, HERE, we want to know “why”, dammitall!  At least about cloud stuff.

Next rain not due in for at least a week, so enjoy the puddles while we have them.

Seems like undercutting dry air has ruined our chances for Cumulus-style isolated shower today.  Currently there is an elevated layer of Stratocumulus, tops above Ms. Mt. Lemmon. That layer will make for a nice sunrise, so be ready.  Other than that, just a few pretty, and small Cumulus, hold the ice,  today.

Yesterday’s clouds and why

“Balloon Over Fog” yesterday after sunrise, that was about the most exciting thing that happened yesterday.  No ice-in-clouds seen, which was a disappointment; no ice, no precip.  Tops never reached our usual ice-forming level of about -10 C (14 F), as you know; mainly hung around -5 C,  according to our TUS weather balloon soundings.  For people not familiar with weather balloons, that’s not a weather balloon over the fog in the photo below, btw.

7:35 AM. A hot air balloon floats peacefully over an unusual March fog occurrence in Marana and Avra Valley.
7:35 AM. A hot air balloon floats peacefully over an unusual March fog occurrence in Marana and Avra Valley.  Altocu on top.  Don’t see the balloon?  See speck at sky/horizon interface center of photo.
DSC_4203
9:35 AM. Lots of water coming down the mountains again as shown by the glistening rock phenomena. Most normally dry washes and creeks should continue to run with another H2O infusion continuing the flows started by our gargantuan late January rain. Poppies looking good now, too.

Below, just examples of a postcard day in Catalina, AZ, those kind of days that make you glad you had one more day on this planet.

DSC_4222 DSC_4219 DSC_4218

The setting sun produced the normal “colorization” of the Catalinas that we savor, and when you look around in the desert at this time of day, even the treacherous teddy bear cholla has real beauty at this time of day.

DSC_4271 DSC_4274

The End