This September 8-10 model-projected Arizona deluge caused by a dying tropical storm?   Then followed by four more days of rain around here?


But you wait a lifetime to see model outputs like this, and so I’m going to save it here, even if it is “fantastic”, “phantasmagorical”, surely imaginary in a sense,  is model craziness, etc.

Nevertheless, treasurable moments in model output have been given to us desert dwellers overnight, the kind of rain-in-the-desert projected events that Hallmark cards were made for.

Here are the panels from IPS MeteoStar, a division of Sutron, where you can buy meteorological sensors, real good ones. I am posting so many of these panels, which is a little crazy in itself,  because in 24 h this series (linked to above) will be overwritten by the next model run from 5 PM AST  global data today, and we will likely never see such a wet series again foretold in a model. in our lifetimes.  Who knows, it COULD happen, but prepare for a broken heart:

Ann 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_2282016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_240 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_252 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_264 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_288 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_300 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_312 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_324 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_336 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_348 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_372 2016083000_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_384Now that most have left this blog to go elsewhere, let us have some spaghetti to see if there is any hope that a tropical storm-sucking trough will be along the West Coast, and in a position to draw a hurricane northward along the Mexican coast by its southerly steering winds aloft.

Ann spag_f264_nhbg
Valid at 5 PM, September 9th.

As you can see, a trough (emphasized by the blue lines above) is destined to lie along the West Coast, in a position to steer any tropical storms toward Arizona that might be moving up the Mexican coast.  So, it looks like the chance of a tropical storm entering the state is certainly a fair amount greater than zero around the 9-10th of September.

The End.

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.


    1. Hi, Travis!

      DIdn’t take long for that wet, wet forecast to go belly up did it?
      Well, my thought is that later models will bring rain back to us after drying us out from the earlier indicated deluges.


    1. Hi, Mike!

      I have not looked at weather today yet (hard to imagine, but worked on something else. Now I am in the wait and see what happens mode. Nice to hear that rain is back. Bill Cotton last advised me, from his take, that the storm would stay too far west and out to sea.

      Hope you’re doing reel good these days!

      As always, look forward to your careful analyses of AZ weather.


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