This September 8-10 model-projected Arizona deluge caused by a dying tropical storm? Then followed by four more days of rain around here?
But you wait a lifetime to see model outputs like this, and so I’m going to save it here, even if it is “fantastic”, “phantasmagorical”, surely imaginary in a sense, is model craziness, etc.
Nevertheless, treasurable moments in model output have been given to us desert dwellers overnight, the kind of rain-in-the-desert projected events that Hallmark cards were made for.
Here are the panels from IPS MeteoStar, a division of Sutron, where you can buy meteorological sensors, real good ones. I am posting so many of these panels, which is a little crazy in itself, because in 24 h this series (linked to above) will be overwritten by the next model run from 5 PM AST global data today, and we will likely never see such a wet series again foretold in a model. in our lifetimes. Who knows, it COULD happen, but prepare for a broken heart:
Now that most have left this blog to go elsewhere, let us have some spaghetti to see if there is any hope that a tropical storm-sucking trough will be along the West Coast, and in a position to draw a hurricane northward along the Mexican coast by its southerly steering winds aloft.
As you can see, a trough (emphasized by the blue lines above) is destined to lie along the West Coast, in a position to steer any tropical storms toward Arizona that might be moving up the Mexican coast. So, it looks like the chance of a tropical storm entering the state is certainly a fair amount greater than zero around the 9-10th of September.