Category: Definitions

It doesn’t get better than this in a model run

You have to see this for yourself, from IPS Meteostar!  Its unbelievable.  The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and its “zuperkomputors” have blessed us in their billions of calculations with not one, not two, but four-five days of rain in the next 15 days!  FOUR different storms (!) bring rain and snow to AZ… Continue reading It doesn’t get better than this in a model run

A climate heroine: Judy Curry

Perhaps she will lead us out of the climate kerfluffles that we continuously have due to overzealous scientists that edit the content of their studies to the news media, leaving out the important complications.  Perhaps with our science “watch dog”, Judy, they won’t do that. “Complications”, you ask? The earth’s temperature has leveled out for… Continue reading A climate heroine: Judy Curry

Yep, its gone; all that model predicted rain in just the next 12 h run!

Dammitall!  Of course, being quite jaded, and knowing drastic changes in model predictions from one run to the next are usually bogus, this disappearance of all that predicted rain in 10-15 days ahead of us on yesterday morning’s National Center for Enviro Prediction “GFS” model has hurt.  People don’t realize how hard it is to… Continue reading Yep, its gone; all that model predicted rain in just the next 12 h run!

Something not to be depressed about: rain in the forecast!

The cloud drought has been a little depressing here in Catalina, Arizona, particularly in view of repeated computer model runs that showed that the next 15 days do not even shown rain getting close to us. But today, oh my, today’s run.  This is a model run for the ages!  Take a look at these,… Continue reading Something not to be depressed about: rain in the forecast!

Nice 22

Hundredths, that is, right here in Catalina.  It was so nice also being “back in Seattle” for a few hours of low hanging clouds and barely enough rain falling for an umbrella.  Yep, that’s the way it is in Seattle, just what we saw two days ago.   Being despondent over the prior rain “bust”… Continue reading Nice 22

“Does any one here know how to play this game?”

Of weather forecasting?  Models?  Me?  Nope. Turning Casey Stengel’s famous comment about his woeful New York Mets into one about weather forecasting seemed appropriate after our little disturbance passed over yesterday afternoon and evening with hardly even virga here!  Got a little depressed at how delusional I was about a squall-line (lion?) feature I thought… Continue reading “Does any one here know how to play this game?”

Good timing

Those disappointingly dry days of the weekend and yesterday with only isolated Cumulonimbus clouds (Cbs) are gone.  Today, a wall of clouds will develop to the west and southwest of us and, with luck, we’ll get at least a third of an inch to, if we are REALLY lucky (dump spot of Cb passes overhead),… Continue reading Good timing

Examples of “good” and “bad” model runs at 144 hours from this morning

First, let us examine the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model that came out based on this morning’s data from around the globe.  This first panel is for the winds around 500 mb (millibars, or “hectopascals”) and is at about 16,ooo to 20,ooo feet in the atmosphere, depending on how high or low the… Continue reading Examples of “good” and “bad” model runs at 144 hours from this morning

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