Strange sunset brew of clouds and color; but was it natural?

Cutting to the chase:  I don’t think so.

Yesterday,  after an ordinary beginning,,  finished in a spectacular, if likely artificial way.  Let us work our way through yesterday’s cloudulations:

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7:39 AM. I thought this was a cute display by this little cloud, making its own little shadow rays as the sun made its way up from behind the Catlinas.
7:40 AM. But what kind of cloud is it? It, to these eyes, is all ice, but LOOKS like an Altocumulus cloud. But those clouds are all or mostly comprised of liquid drops. And you can see that this little guy is well BELOW a higher layer of ice cloud, we might call CIrrostratus, or a thin Altostratus. Oh, well, let’s move on to something explicable….

 

7:41 AM. Hmmmm. Quite a linear virga feature over there.
7:41 AM. Hmmmm. Quite a linear virga feature over there.  There are THREE cloud layers evident here, a thin Altocumulus layer, that dark cloud on the left, and patch of what I could call, Altostratus extending from the left corner to the right corner, and a thin layer of CIrrostratus on top.
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7:41 AM. Let’s go zooming and check it out…. Though we don’t know for SURE, anytime you see this kind of linear virga anomaly, you should be smelling aircraft exhaust.  Now, when you think about our fabulous sunset last evening and what that looked like, take a closer look at this photo.

Later that morning…..

10:53 AM. 10:47 AM. It was nice to see low clouds topping Sam Ridge, the lower boundary layer air (where convection takes place) moist for a change.
10:53 AM. It was nice to see low clouds topping Sam Ridge at dawn yesterday, the lower boundary layer air (where convection takes place) moist for a change.  Later they devolved into small Cumulus (humilis and fractus).
3:29 PM. A day with mostly ice clouds on top of Catalina, but here, off in the distance below the Cirrostratus, is an invading layer of Altostratus and Altocumulus that will set the stage for sunset glory later.
3:29 PM. A day with mostly ice clouds on top of Catalina, but here, off in the distance below the Cirrostratus, is an invading layer of Altostratus and Altocumulus that will set the stage for sunset glory later.  You may be able to detect a faint halo, upper center.  By the way, Cirrostratus typically deepens downward to morph into Altostratus, usually an ice cloud, too, but is deep enough to produce gray shading, and when its really thick or has embedded droplet clouds, hides the sun.
4:02 PM. Yep, moving right in.
4:02 PM. Yep, moving right in.  This is a very complex scene.  There’s aCirrostratus ice layer. upper right quadrant , on top of everything.  Below that, what appears here as a distinctly lower separate layer, a mix of Altocumulus (those dark cloudlets composed all or mostly of liquid droplets) and Altostratus (mostly or all ice, the smudgy more diffuse dark areas) .  We can never forget that Altocumulus can morph into Altostratus, which would then be called, “Altostratus altocumulotransmutatus.”  Tell that to your friends!  (Well, maybe not.)
4:15 PM. Caught this bumpy aircraft contrail at CIrrus levels. Look how how the exhaust and water vapor that formed this, though output from an aircraft in a steady state, how the wing tip vorices (apparently) get entertwined at regular intervals with more exhaust and water vapor in those blobs.
4:15 PM. Caught this bumpy aircraft contrail at CIrrus levels. Look how how the exhaust and water vapor that formed this, though output from an aircraft in a steady state, how the wing tip vorices (apparently) get entertwined at regular intervals with more exhaust and water vapor in those blobs.

But let’s go zooming up to flight level and take a closer look for a second:

A mammatus (or as the ladies like to call it) testicularis contrail. Almost certainly this is due to combining wing tip vortices. Many aircraft now have devices to defeat wing tip vortices, phenomenon that reduce flight efficiency.
A “mammatus” (or as the ladies like to call it. a testicularis contrail (the resemblances are pretty good). Almost certainly this is due to combining wing tip vortices.  Many aircraft now have devices to defeat wing tip vortices, phenomenon that reduce flight efficiency.  In both cases above, the ice particles have not grown enough to produce fallstreaks.  These images tell us that SOME aircraft that produce ice in supercooled Altocumulus clouds, as we in Catalina have seen lately, are likely to have bunches of ice trails rather than a continuum if produced in a uniform cloud, anyway.

Now, where was I?  Got mammatus on my mind again. I love mammatus so much…   Oh, yeah, that sunset yesterday…..

5:13 PM. Ran out to check sunset status, and saw this feature advancing rapidly toward Catalina.
5:13 PM. Ran out to check sunset status, and saw this feature advancing rapidly toward Catalina.
5:18 PM. Zoomed view; getting close to passing overhead. You might be able to notice that these pretty regularly spaced trails are BELOW the Altocumulus clouds, and there's a clearing that's been produced. All evidence of an artificial production of these trails. But belng below the Altocu, you might also have started to wonder whether the setting sun would light them up....
5:18 PM. Zoomed view; getting close to passing overhead. You might be able to notice that these pretty regularly spaced trails are BELOW the Altocumulus clouds, and there’s a clearing that’s been produced. All evidence of an artificial production of these trails. But belng below the Altocu, you might also have started to wonder whether the setting sun would light them up….

And the sun did its job….producing one of the greatest sunset scenes we’ve seen in a long time, even if phony (haha):

5:23 PM. Not zoomed, still a few minutes away to overhead passage. Very exciting to think this was going to pass overhead!
5:23 PM. Not zoomed, still a few minutes away to overhead passage. Very exciting to think this was going to pass overhead!
5:23 PM. Zoomed view. Again the pretty regular spacing is circumstantial evidence that nature didn't do it.
5:23 PM. Zoomed view. Again the pretty regular spacing is circumstantial evidence that nature didn’t do it.
5:25 PM. Thank you sun! Looks pretty round again, which is good.
5:25 PM. Thank you sun! Looks pretty round again, which is good.
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5:27 PM. Oh, so pretty.
5:27 PM.
5:27 PM. Zooming again. Wow.
5:28 PM. Another view of the same thing.
5:28 PM. Another view of the same thing.
5:28 PM. Our trails compared to the rest of the Altocumulus deck. Not much going on elsewhere in the way of natural virga.
5:28 PM. Our trails compared to the rest of the Altocumulus deck. Not much going on elsewhere in the way of natural virga.
5:29 PM. Taking WAY too many photos of the same thing. Out of control... Here I demonstrate that with another photo of the same thing.
5:29 PM. Taking WAY too many photos of the same thing. Out of control… Here I demonstrate that with another photo of the same thing.

 

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5:30 PM. After the trail hoopla, it was time to concentrate on the fabulous sunset taking place to the southwest of Catalina.
5:30 PM. Zooming in on interesting features; long trails, one with a clearing above it. Was it another aircraft-induced trail of ice and clearing above it? Probably. The trails to the left aren't as obviously produced by an aircraft, but I do think so anyway in this burst of objectivity. Recall that I have been trained as a "scientist" and don't care if I am wrong, but only about truth, as best as I can make it out.
5:30 PM. Zooming in on interesting features; long trails, one with a clearing above it. Was it another aircraft-induced trail of ice and clearing above it? Probably. The trails to the left aren’t as obviously produced by an aircraft, but I do think so anyway in this burst of objectivity. Recall that I have been trained as a “scientist” and don’t care if I am wrong, but only about truth, as best as I can make it out.

Finally, let look at the TUS sounding for last evening, see how cold those Ac cloud were with the ice trail in them:

The Tucson rawinsonde balloon launch yesterday at about 3:30 PM. Goes up at about 1,000 feet a minute, so takes about 100 minutes to get to 100, 000 feet. They pop somewhere around that height or a little above. THought you like to know that. They have a little parachute to that when they come down, they don't bonk you too hard. Once in awhile people find them in remote areas downwind.
Results of the Tucson rawinsonde balloon launch yesterday at about 3:30 PM. Goes up at about 1,000 feet a minute, so takes about 100 minutes to get to 100, 000 feet. They pop somewhere around that height or a little above. THought you like to know that. They have a little parachute to that when they come down, they don’t bonk you too hard. Once in awhile people find them in remote areas downwind.  You can send them back in to the NWS, too!

The astounding thing here, something that goes against everything I believe about clouds, is that it is indicated that the Altocumulus, lacking much natural ice, was at -30° C!  Yikes!  No wonder aircraft were producing ice trails and stuff yesterday afternoon.

You have to conclude there were almost no natural “ice nuclei” up there at, oh about 24,000 feet above sea level.  This is not the first time for such an occurrence of liquid clouds sans much ice at low temperatures1, but they are rare IME.  This would never occur in a boundary layer cloud, that is, one where material from the earth’s surface is getting into the clouds,  like the omnipresent dust, or biogenic ice nuclei.

The weather ahead

Some “fantasy” storms with rain in them for Catalina, are now seen on the model predictions beyond a week.  Spaghetti is favoring this new development now.  So, something to keep an eye on.

The view from here?  Precip here is “in the bag” because going on subjective feelings, I really want to see a good rain here!

 

The End

——————————
1The famous John Hallett said he saw an Altocumulus lenticularis sans ice at -35°C in a conference preprint! Rangno and Hobbs (1986) claimed to have detected droplets in Altocumulus like clouds at the top of a storm on the Washington coast at -44°C. Their claim, first published in a conference preprint, was later rejected by the J. Atmos. Sci.

November thunderama

Doesn’t happen every November, thunder, but it sure pounded away at times yesterday.   Seemed louder than usual thunder a few times even with the lightning over there by the Tortolita Mountains. Of course, that’s where the heaviest rain fell as several T-storms tracked along a similar path over there just a little to the W through N of us, Bio2, in one of the heavier cloberations receiving 1.17 inches.

Here, in The Heights, we received a disappointing, but nevertheless welcomed final total of 0.24 inches.  This brings our total here in Sutherland Heights for November up to 0.60 inches.  Average is 0.96 inches1.  Here, the regional totals as the storm was coming to an end:

"Us" is here in the Sutherland Heights; "Them" is Bio2. Wanted to reflect the general world situation now days by using an oft used cliché.
“Us” is here in the Sutherland Heights; “Them” is Bio2. Wanted to reflect the general world situation now days by using oft used cliché terms.

As is proper, let us begin examining the nubilations of our storm by looking at those clouds that preceded the actual rain day yesterday.

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7:02 AM. This pretty sunrise over the Catalina features a couple of flakes of Altocumulus clouds, and a vast layer of Altostratus.
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7:04 AM. Yes, the sun is coming up, though really its the earth rotating toward the sun. The sun does not go around the earth every day; it only SEEMS that way. We’re looking at the same two cloud generas, btw. Nice rays produced by pretty regular humps in clouds over the horizon, a little row of Altocumulus castellanus might cause these rays/shadows.
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7:05 AM. This was pretty interesting, to use “pretty” again. This would be an Altostratus mammatus. Men often find this formation especially interesting and pretty. Here you can also see how a cloud protuberance can produce a shadow. But why is there only one feature like this? Typically mammatus are like upside down Cumulus turrets representing  downward moving cloudy, in this case, air filled with ice crystals).   Adjacent to this feature, the ice crystals and snowflakes are just settling out.   As the moving downward air in mammatus features slows, these breast-like globules open up and you’ll have ordinary virga. The ice crystals are typically rather small and not rimed (that is, have not collided with cloud droplets) or they would fall out and not be constrained to this pretty,  rounded shape.
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7:07 AM. The underside of the Altostratus is lit up, showing the detailed areas of virga. Altostratus, by definition, is a precipitating cloud. Its just that the bases are too high for the precip (snow) to get to the ground, though sprinkles could occur in the thicker, deeper versions. When and if it starts to rain steadily, the cloud is better termed a “Nimbostratus,”
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11:20 AM. The Altostratus deck departed with its pretty mammatus and virga, leaving great examples of Altocumulus opacus clouds most of the morning and into the early afternoon.
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3:24 PM. An example of Altostratus translucidues doesn’t get better than this.  Hope you captured it.  The As  (abbrev. for “Altostratus”) cloud over took over by mid-afternoon as the moist layer deepened again following the Altocu. Tops of this all ice Altostratus layer, in spite of being able to make out  (“discern,” not “make out” in the social sense of the phrase–still thinking about that mammatus formation) the sun’s position, are usually around Cirrus levels, the top of the troposphere.  The TUS sounding suggested “bases” (actually where the ice crystals are evaporating rather than droplets that comprise the bases of Cumulus, Altocumulus or other droplet clouds) at 14,000 feet ASL, and tops around 34,000 feet ASL  Subtract about 3 kft to get heights above the ground here in Catalina.

 

Moving ahead to yesterday…..

7:13 AM. With an approaching upper level trough and big low center in the Great Basin, the winds had become gusty, and the clouds had lowered to Stratocumulus status, topping the Catalinas. I thought the lighting was really pretty here, and that shaft out there shows that turrets are climbing shooting up well beyond the general tops of the shallow Stratocu. Pretty exciting since it meant that the tops of other Stratocu might bunch into other Cumulonimbus clouds, which is what that shaft tells you.
7:13 AM. With an approaching upper level trough and big low center in the Great Basin, the winds had become gusty, and the clouds had lowered to Stratocumulus status, topping the Catalinas. I thought the lighting was really pretty here, and that shaft out there shows that turrets are climbing shooting up well beyond the general tops of the shallow Stratocu. Pretty exciting since it meant that the tops of other Stratocu might bunch into other Cumulonimbus clouds, which is what that shaft tells you.
8:18 AM. A line of Cumulonimbus quickly erupted and it looked like it was about to crash into the Oro Valley Catalina area, but instead stayed to the west over the Tortolitas.
8:18 AM. A line of Cumulonimbus quickly erupted and it looked like it was about to crash into the Oro Valley Catalina area, but instead stayed to the west over the Tortolitas.  Thunder heard!
8:19 AM. Looking WNW toward the Tortolitas.
8:19 AM. Looking WNW toward the Tortolitas.
9:27 AM. After some light showers passed along the Catalinas, this pretty scene. Note the glistening rocks that added such pretty highlights.
9:27 AM. As some light showers passed along the Catalinas, this pretty scene the sun broke through.  Note the glistening rocks that added such pretty highlights.
9:28 AM. Pretty nice over toward the Gap, too! I will never get tired of these scenes!
9:28 AM. Pretty nice over toward the Gap, too! I will never get tired of these scenes!
11:12 AM. Disappointingly, in view of all the rain predicted here (0.575 inches) that first line of Cumulonimbus clouds stayed stayed west of Catalina.
11:12 AM. Disappointingly, in view of all the rain predicted here (0.575 inches) that first line of Cumulonimbus clouds stayed stayed west of Catalina.  But, that line of Cumulus or Stratocumulus clouds on the horizon is full of stormy portent, that a windshift line might be about to strike and generate another line of Cumulonimbus clouds.  Any solid line of clouds like that, kind of by itself, suggests a windshift; it more than just a fair weather “cloud street.”
11:11 AM. Zooming in on that line of clouds. Its fun to zoom, since you are in a way, flying toward what you're looking at, getting so much closer!
11:11 AM. Zooming in on that line of clouds. Its fun to zoom, since you are in a way, flying toward what you’re looking at, getting so much closer! I wish that line of clouds was here already!

 

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11:27 AM. Yep, there it goes, fattening upward into Cumulus congestus and to the N, Cumulonimbus clouds! This one will surely blast across Catalina as the upper trough and associated cold front approach; heck, maybe that’s the cold front windshift line and temprature drop right there!
11:27 AM. Yep, there it goes, fattening upward into Cumulus congestus and to the N, Cumulonimbus clouds! This one will surely blast across Catalina as the upper trough and associated cold front approach; heck, maybe that's the cold front windshift line and temprature drop right there!
11:27 AM. Yep, there it goes, fattening upward into Cumulus congestus and to the N, Cumulonimbus clouds! This one will surely blast across Catalina as the upper trough and associated cold front approach; heck, maybe that’s the cold front windshift line and temprature drop right there! Repeated for emphasis.
11:29 AM. A Cumulonimbus cloud is a bit farther north in this line.
11:29 AM. A Cumulonimbus cloud is a bit farther north in this line.  This HAS to be the windshift and cold front!
11:46 AM. Was inside for a few minutes (18) and that cloud line just exploded over there. Here looking again toward the Tortolitas. But surely they will wall out and crash the sunny party in Oro Valley (I was thinking).
11:46 AM. Was inside for a few minutes (18) and that cloud line just exploded over there. Here looking again toward the Tortolitas. But surely they will wall out and crash the sunny party in Oro Valley (I was thinking).
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11:52 AM. Well, these followup Cumulonimbus clouds aren’t looking so great, no evidence of strong turreting, weak and leaning, wispy, frail, “indolent”, cloud “couch potatoes.” Hope fading for a big shafting here in The Heights
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12:12 PM. The cloud line, as expected is progressing across Oro Valley, but shafting is meager. Its real windy, though, adding some drama. Gusts to 40 mph! Note however the weak shafting, as evidenced by a slope across the whole thing; no heavy, large particles falling out of this guy as we see in those vertical summer shafts. Indicates that the tops are getting very high, producing lots of condensate. So even here, with a nice dramatic scene, you’re thinking (to put words in your brain) that its going to be a disappointment in rain production, and you might be missed altogether!
12:24 PM. It was pretty much all over 12 min later, that is, the chances for a real shafting. A well formed Cumulus congestus base formed just upwind of Catalina, but as so many do, slipped a little east before reaching Cumulonimbus stage and unloaded on the Catalina foothills NE of Catalina. Sometime, when clouds like this are overhead and show no precip, it just can dump out of the black. But, it didn't happen yesterday.
12:24 PM. It was pretty much all over 12 min later, that is, the chances for a real shafting. A well formed Cumulus congestus base formed just upwind of Catalina, but as so many do, slipped a little east before reaching Cumulonimbus stage and unloaded on the Catalina foothills NE of Catalina. Sometime, when clouds like this are overhead and show no precip, it just can dump out of the black. But, it didn’t happen yesterday.  By now, the wind had shifted, the temperature was falling, and soon, the light to briefly moderate rain fell as the cold front went by.
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1:14 PM. By this time, you could pick up a couple of nice photos of just Stratocumulus clouds following the passage of the front. Here we see some indications of mammatus formations (upper center, right) in a droplet cloud, an extremely rare event since droplets evaporate so much faster in downward moving air that the pouches represent. One can surmise that those pouches may have contained higher amounts of liquid water, and the downdrafts were very slight.  OK, so we’re kind of fixated on mammatus today….  No apologies; I’m just a man.

The great thing about yesterday was that because the upper trough lagged so much behind the cold front, you could be sure it wasn’t over, that is, the rain chances.  In fact, as the wind turns aloft from a southerly or southwesterly direction to a more westerly one, we here in Catalina have a better chance of having the clouds pile up over us, even if they’re not full fledged Cumulonimbus clouds, they can still reach depths where they precipitate while upwind, they don’t because they may not be deep enough.   The Catalina Mountains provides the lift that helps do this, and we saw that happen later in the afternoon and evening when it began to rain again long after the cold front and it so-so rain band went by.

3:06 PM. Starting to look more favorable for rain and the clouds began to cluster after the boring spell of Stratocumulus except for the brief display of pretty mammatus.
3:06 PM. Starting to look more favorable for rain and the clouds began to cluster after the boring spell of Stratocumulus except for the brief display of pretty mammatus.  The air aloft was getting a little colder, too, helping the Cumulus clouds deepen upward in spite of cool temperatures following the front.  This view is looking upwind to pal Mark Albright’s house there in Continental Ranch, Marana.  Mark is a fellow U of WA research meteorologist, though he hasn’t thrown in the towel yet, is still working.
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3:34 PM. Even as the clouds filled in and the light showers began, some pretty highlights were observed where the sun peaked through holes in the overcast. Here, Eagle Crest to the north of The Heights is spotlighted. If you are a resident of Eagle Crest and you would like a copy of this photo entitled, “Spotlight on Eagle Crest”, you can get one today for $1200, If you call now, you can get two for $2400.
5:25 PM. FInally, as the light rain fell, adding a few more hundredths to our total, sunset occurred! You can see it WAS raining by the drop on the camera lens, I didn't just say it was raining because I wanted it to. Note the lack of shafts. This tells you the tops of the clouds are pretty uniform, not protruding much above us. The rain was "pretty" steady, another indication that the clouds are relatively uniform in the horizontal.
5:25 PM. FInally, as the light rain fell, adding a few more hundredths to our total, sunset occurred! You can see it WAS raining by the drop on the camera lens, I didn’t just say it was raining because I wanted it to. Note the lack of shafts. This tells you the tops of the clouds are pretty uniform, not protruding much above us. The rain was “pretty” steady, another indication that the clouds are relatively uniform in the horizontal.

The End, FINALLY!

—————–

1If we don’t get more rain by the end of November, I will delete the sentence of a week or so ago stating that November would have above average rainfall.  No use having people see that.

More odd optics; a Cirrostratus halo with a suggestion of a lower tangent arc

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7:25 AM arrives as usual. Seeming radiating bands of Altostratus stream toward Catalina (little too thick and gray to be “Cirrus”). They also appeared so smooth as to resemble lenticular clouds.
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1:14 PM. Since its summer again in Arizona in late October, not surprising to see afternoon Cumulus clouds originating in air from the Tropics clustering over our mountains again.
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1:38 PM. The curved brightening at the bottom of this otherwise normal halo is likely a “lower tangent arc.”
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1:40 PM. Zooming in with excitement here. Is it really a lower tangent arc? Not positive, but will go with that description anyway.
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2:59 PM. That Cirrostratus thickened into Altostratus (usually, btw, due to the bottom of the cloud lowering) and at the same time the lower moisture, evidenced by these Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds, also increased. However, none of these lower clouds got cold enough to produce ice, so likely tops were warmer than -10°C (14°F).

DSC_90074:32 PM.  Mix of Altostratus and Altocumulus clouds, with just remnants of the lower Cu.  Here it appears that a liquid layer of Altocumulus now resides at the bottom of the Altostratus, or may be embedded in it.  The globular masses in the middle of this photo represent droplet clouds that appear to have merged into a plate.  In the distance, the telltale sign of lowering tops:  only droplet clouds, with a occasional splash of virga can be seen.

DSC_90115:23 PM.  Just a little before a great sunset,  which I missed due to a social engagement, the shallow Altocumulus droplet clouds are plainly evident around the sun’s position.  Above to center, the backside of the deeper Altostratus clouds with much higher tops,  is about to pass over us.  Here you can see, how much lower the Altocumulus cloud fragments are than the Altostratus layer as they are  illuminated by the sun (upper center highlighted clouds).

All in all, a pretty pleasant day with interesting clouds passing by, though ultimately disappointing since at one time, this was to be a day with showers here.  Oh, well, that’s weather forecasting for you.

Another minimal chance for showers comes up in the middle of next week…

The End

Ice optics extravaganza; Cirrus uncinus fallstreifen going in different directions!

What a day, Mr. and Mrs. Catalina!

Not as good as a rain day with lightning, but yesterday did have its moments in the sky, enough to make the astrologers  on Mt. Lemmon jealous with displays of parhelia (“sun dogs”, or “mock suns”), faint haloes, a rare parhelic circle, something you don’t see but once every year or two,  and fallstreifen (fall streaks) from Cirrus uncinus clouds going in almost opposite directions, an extremely rare sight.

The rare “parhelic circle” is a local brightening often extending out from a parhelia (sun dog) at a sharp angle, which I just learned about here1.  Usually you don’t see a whole circle, just part of one.  

These optic displays are caused by ice crystals, of course, ones not too complex, but rather simple ones like prisms, short solid columns, bullets, and hexagonal plates.  Some examples of these can be seen here.

The bottom of yesterday’s moist layer was just above 30,000 feet at a temperature of -35° C and extended all the way up to about 40,000 feet above sea level where the temperature were around -65° C.

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The balloon sounding launched around 3:30 PM AST yesterday from the Banner University of Arizona.

Some photos documenting the excitement of yesterday

5:30 PM. Cirrus uncinus crystals heading in two very different directions. Wow. Notice the fibers from the contrail that are starting to fall out are going in the "correct" direction, back toward that west.
5:30 PM. Cirrus uncinus crystals heading in two very different directions. Wow. Notice the fibers from the contrail that are starting to fall out are going in the “correct” direction, back toward that west or southwest.
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3:04 PM. Parhelic circle erupts in mostly Cirrus uncinus clouds.
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3:06 PM. The astounding sight continues, but fades away just after this.
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3:33 PM. Local brightening at the position of a sun dog suggests these are tiny ice crystals or possibly even droplets that have just formed, the sizes too small to allow refraction into color normally seen in sun dogs.
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3:32 PM. A zoomed view of that little bright spot. Sure looks like it may have been droplets. Droplet clouds have been reliably reported to temperatures as low as -44° C. Of course, wouldn’t stay liquid long!  I thought this was a pretty exciting shot!  Hope you got it, too.

 

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3:42 PM. Amid all the optical excitement was this ghost-like halo. Can you make out the faint circle around the sun? In ascents through thick ice clouds having complicated ice crystals like bullet rosettes down below the tops, as you climb to the top of such clouds, amazing haloes can be seen where the crystals are newly formed and quite simple in structure, allowing the refraction required for a halo. So, this halo was likely at the top of these thicker Cirrus and Altostratus (dense portions) clouds, though no one would penalize you if you just said they were all Cirrus clouds.

 

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3:59 PM. Another spectacular bright spot at the sun dog location (which is also at the 22° halo location, faintly evident here).
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3:59 PM. Zoomed view of this sun dog/parhelia. Lots of fine structure evident, which is not usually the case with parhelia.
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4:25 PM. Another finely structured parhelia/sun dog suggesting the ice crystals were newly formed. Fine structure like this can’t last long with the usual turbulence, and so that’s a sure sign this feature has just formed.  I don’t recall seeing so many atypical sun dogs in one day!
5:09 PM. The normal, amorphous sun dog. No really fine detail can be seen here.
5:09 PM. The normal, amorphous sun dog. No really fine detail can be seen here.

Below, examples of cold Cirrocumulus, ones that quickly transition to Cirrus clouds.

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5:19 PM. This group of CIrrocumulus clouds appeared very quickly almost overhead. The tiniest elements are those that have just formed. These are composed of ice crystals in extremely high concentrations, perhaps 10,000 per lilter. Once that ice has formed, its gradually spreads out, much like a puff of smoke would, thinning, some crystals growing large enough to start fall steaks.
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5:19 PM. Some elements are still forming, but the spreading of the older ones is well underway, producing a “blurred” look as the elements merge and thin out.
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5:28 PM. Off to the southwest of Catalina, a promising intrusion of lower moisture indicated by these approaching Altocumulus clouds. Will there be enough today for a sprinkle somewhere?  Not looking so good now, clouds did not lower much overnight.   Well, maybe if it doesn’t sprinkle, maybe we’ll get to see some nice virga and dream about rain…

 

The End

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1I was going to call it something else.  Egad.  Let us remember the words of the B-52s:  “Before I talk, I should read the book.

Cirrus, Cirrocumulus and Altostratus day closes with a painting-like sunset (now updated even more!)

No rain in sight for Catalinans, to get that over with.

However, if you’re bored and are thinking about a quickie storm chasing vacation with the family, monster storms, likely to produce newspaper headlines will be smashing the Pac NW in the next few days.  Expect to read about flooding and hurricane to 100 mph winds on the Washington/Oregon coast sometime.  Also, Tofino, British Columbia, along the SW coast of Vancouver Island, would be a great place to head for, watching giant waves crash up against the coast and around that lighthouse they have around there, pounding rains…

The long fetch with these storms in the Pacific guarantees some monster waves.

3:49 AM, 14 Oct:  Mark “WeatherPal”  Albright informed me that a 94 mph wind was observed last evening (the 13th) near Astoria, OR.

The next low,   a “regular low” but one energized by leftover moisture from Typhoon Songda,  looks to be even stronger than last night’s low.  This one comes  in  moving really rapidly tomorrow evening while deepening (central pressure is dropping further) as it passes over the Washington coast.  Looks like that one will be a “blow-down” storm;  good-bye timber.

The synoptic pattern (placement of jet streams and lows) is       “Freda-esque”, that is, similar to that of October 12, 1962, the infamous Columbus Day storm where a remnant of Typhoon Freda zipped in as a regular low that deepened explosively as it raced up the Pacific NW coast bringing winds of 100-200 mph and blowing down BILLIONS of board feet of timber as well as weather pal, Mark Albright,  mentioned above,  when he was a kid1

Well, we sure hope its not THAT similar!

Yesterday’s Clouds

Lots of interesting patterns and complexities in yesterday’s skies. If you didn’t see them, here they are, though its kind of a much ado about nothing, really:

1:23 PM. Icy Cirrocumulus. As a solid band of high and middle clouds approached, the first things we saw as the moisture began to increase aloft were some spectacular patterns in isolated high clouds as it approached. Probably most of the Cirrocumulus we see is composed of droplets, but here, it appears to be composed of ice, possibly starting as droplets at the upwind edge,
1:23 PM. Icy Cirrocumulus. As a solid band of high and middle clouds approached, the first things we saw as the moisture began to increase aloft were some spectacular patterns in isolated high clouds as the solid band  approached. Probably most of the Cirrocumulus we see is composed of droplets,  and never glaciates, but here, it appears to be composed of ice, though likely started as droplets at the upwind edge (middle of photo).  At the top of the photo, the tiny “granulets” are fibrous, clearly ice, and strands of ice crystals are starting to make their way down.
1:23 PM. Got excited and thought you might like a zoomed view of this patch in case you didn't get one.
1:23 PM. Got excited and thought you might like a zoomed view of this patch in case you didn’t get one.
1:30 PM. I thought this was kind of a strange and fun pattern for you. Look how the youngest cloud elements are over there beyond the Catalinas and the oldest ones with strands of ice crystals falling out are overhead. Besides perspective giving you a sense of radiating lines, one would normally guess that the wind way up there (about 30 kft above the ground) is heading toward you, newest parts back there, oldest ones arriving overhead, which would be from the south in this shot. But the wind was from the west-southwest at this level, perpendicular to this scene. Can't say either of us has seen this before, quite the "Tom Foolery" in a cloud scene.
1:30 PM. I thought this was kind of a strange and fun pattern for you. Look how the youngest cloud elements are over there beyond the Catalinas and the oldest ones with strands of ice crystals falling out are overhead. Besides perspective giving you a sense of radiating lines, one would normally guess that the wind way up there (about 30 kft above the ground) is heading toward you, newest cloud (Cirrocumulus, maybe lenticularis)  back there, oldest ones arriving overhead, which would be from the south in this shot.  But the wind was from the west-southwest at this level, perpendicular to this scene. Can’t say either of us has seen this before; quite the “Tom Foolery” in a cloud scene, a real knee-slapper.  Clouds do that a lot where we think we know what is going on, but, as they say, “upon further review”…..
1:32 PM. Confusion? Strands of ice and waves in this cloud seem to run in various directions.
1:32 PM. Confusion? Strands of ice and waves in this cloud that produced lines seem to run in various directions.  Some lines are perpendicular to the wind, blowing from the lower right to the upper left side, representing little bumps in the air, ones resembling sea swell rolling in to the shore,
1:40 PM. Pretty much unfathomable, too complex to even begin describing, which makes it worth photographing. We can make out some icy Cirrocumulus though, here and there, with that lenticular-looking backside beyond the mountains, though perspective may be bunching it up to look that way.
1:40 PM. Pretty much unfathomable, too complex to even begin describing in less than a page, which makes it worth photographing. We can make out what CMP deems as some icy Cirrocumulus though, here and there, with that lenticular-looking backside beyond the mountains, though perspective may be bunching it up to look that way.  I’ve already taken too many photos in just eight minutes!
2:10 PM. Breathing easier now, here, "simple" Cirrus fibratus, lined Cirrus clouds with mostly non-curving fibers,
2:10 PM. Breathing easier now, here, “simple” Cirrus fibratus, lined Cirrus clouds with mostly non-curving fibers,
Also 2:10 PM. The scene upwind of that "liney" Cirrus. Also "fibratus" except overhead there looks to be "uncinus" as evidenced by those thick regions likely trailing ice strands back toward the viewer.
Also 2:10 PM. The scene upwind of that “liney” Cirrus. Also “fibratus” except overhead there looks to be “uncinus” as evidenced by those thick regions (upper right hand corner) likely trailing ice strands back toward the viewer.
2:18 PM. Pretty soon the heavier masses of CIrrus began to appear, with lower, but still very cold droplet clouds just below them.
2:18 PM. Pretty soon the heavier masses of CIrrus (Spissatus) with some gray shading began to appear, with lower, but still very cold and at least momentarily,  Altocumulus droplet clouds  (above bush on the right) began to appear just below the Cirrus.  Clouds almost always lower in time, even when they don’t lead to a storm.
2:18 PM. More patterns. Here we have a mush of Altocumulus, very fine granulation of Cirrocumulus (top) and CIrrus clouds passing overhead. You can tell if clouds are at different levels by looking to see if they are moving all at the same rate. Here, if you looked really carefully, the little white tufts of Altocumulus clouds were moving in a slightly different direction than the Cirrus clouds were. How important is this. Not too much.
2:18 PM. More patterns. Here we have a mush of Altocumulus, very fine granulation of Cirrocumulus (top) and CIrrus clouds passing overhead. You can tell if clouds are at different levels by looking to see if they are moving all at the same rate. Here, if you looked really carefully, the little white tufts of Altocumulus clouds were moving in a slightly different direction than the Cirrus clouds were. How important is this. Not too much.
4:18 PM. Skipping ahead, the full boatload of this band, consisting of a thick Altostratus, was passed over at this time. The clearing on the right told you there was going to be a nice sunset in a couple of hours. This was the lowest level the moisture got to. somewhere in the 22-25 kft above the ground, according the the TUS sounding though the darkness of it may make it look lower.
4:18 PM. Skipping ahead, the full boatload of this band, consisting of a thick Altostratus, was passed over at this time. The clearing on the right told you there was going to be a nice sunset in a couple of hours. This was the lowest level the moisture got to. somewhere in the 22-25 kft above the ground, according the the TUS sounding though the darkness of it may make it look lower.
6:01 PM. Almost could have been a painting. The gradual ascent that produced the heavy line of Altostratus is now being broken up by patches of downward moving air, leaving holes and streakiness in the former solid cloud shield. But who cares when you can just sit and take scenes like this in!
6:01 PM. Almost could have been a painting. VIncent Van Gogh himself could not do this scene justice.  If you’ve seen his work, like “Starry Night“, you’ll know how bad he was at capturing the sky.  But for him to try to capture this scene, it would be beyond “bad”, but rather a total and complete travesty,.  The gradual ascent that produced the heavy line of Altostratus is now being broken up by patches of downward moving air, leaving holes and streakiness in the former solid cloud shield. But who cares when you can just sit and take scenes like this in!
6:06 PM. The moon amid CIrrus spissatus and other varieties of Cirrus. Notice that the disk of the moon is just a bit blurry, out of focus. That blurring is due to ice crystals in those Cirrus clouds. If it was a thin droplet cloud, the disk would appear crisp and very sharp.
6:06 PM. The moon amid CIrrus spissatus and other varieties of Cirrus. Notice that the disk of the moon is just a bit blurry, out of focus. That blurring is due to ice crystals in those Cirrus clouds. If it was a thin droplet cloud, the disk would appear crisp and very sharp..

—————————-
1Mark. like most kids who are blown over in a windstorm,  wanted to be a meteorologist right after that.   Its pretty traumatic and life changing when you’re blown over by wind.    CMP’s life was traumatized and changed forever when it snowed a few inches in the San Fernando Valley of southern California when he was six year’s old.  Not sure you’ll find this information in the latest Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Psychiatric Disorders #5, however, but its a well-known phenomenon in the weather subculture.

Traces of rain and a Lemmon rainbow

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6:25 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus. According to my cloud chart, informally known as “America’s Cloud Chart”, it could rain within 6 to 196 hours. Its quite useful.
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10:24 AM. Altocumulus opacus. Note the rumpled look of the sky. Indicates that the clouds are rather shallow and composed of droplets rather than a mix of ice crystals and droplets. However, if you strain your eyeballs and look to the horizon, you can see a smoothing and a little virga showing that the cloud tops are rising and they’ve gotten cold enough to produce ice. According to my cloud chart, when you see “Ac opacus” it could rain within 6 to 196 hours.
DSC_0622
1:44 PM. While the clouds are pretty much the same gray color as in the prior photo, they’re much thicker here and are “Altostratus opacus”. “opacus” because the sun’s position is not visible, though it wouldn’t be in this direction anyway, but to the right. The bottom of this is smooth due to widespread, light falling snow, though it not in a localized area enough to be called virga in this shot. The lack of bunched or heavy virga somewhere tells you that the cloud tops are pretty smooth, too, not a lot of variation in height.  The base is really determined by the point that you descend out of this precip, in this case up around 10 kft above the ground over Catalina.
4:12 PM.  Altostratus opacus praecipitatio or Nimbostratus, either name will do.  Recall the quirk in our cloud naming system that makes, "Nimbostratus" a middle-level cloud.  The base of these clouds is the general level where the snow falling out has evaporated.  Due to bulging tops, and stronger updrafts, a little of the precip was able to fall out because the snowflakes coming out the bottom had grown larger and were able to survive the dry air below cloud base.
4:12 PM. Altostratus opacus praecipitatio or Nimbostratus, either name will do. Recall the quirk in our cloud naming system that makes, “Nimbostratus” a middle-level cloud. The base of these clouds is the general level where the snow falling out has evaporated. Due to bulging tops, and stronger updrafts, a little of the precip was able to fall out because the snowflakes coming out the bottom had grown larger and were able to survive the dry air below cloud base.

Some rain fell about this time in Catalina.  Not enough to darken the pavement completely at any time.  The main thing to take away from that hour of very light rain is that it was not “drizzle” as even some errant meteorologists call such sprinkles.

You will be permanently banned from attending any future meetings of the cloud maven club if you refer to such rain as we had yesterday afternoon as “drizzle.”  Drizzle is fine (200-500 micron in diameter drops that are very close together and practically float in the air.  Because they fall so slowly, and are so small to begin with, you can’t have drizzle at the ground from clouds that are much more than a 1000 feet or so above the ground because as soon as they pop out the bottom, those drops start evaporating and fall slower and slower by the second, and in no time they can be gone even in moist conditions.  That’ s why its somewhat hilarious and sad at the same time,  when, in particular, military sites for some unknown reason, report ersatz “drizzle: (coded as L, or L-) in our hourly aviation reports from clouds that are based at 5000 feet or something CRAZY like that.

This band of Nimbostratus/Altostratus had a backside that approached as the sun went down, and as you know, that clearing let some sunlight enrich and dramatize the views of our beloved Catalina Mountains:

DSC_0634
5:39 PM.
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5:41 PM.

Finally, dessert:

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5:47 PM. Rainbow lands on the University of Arizona Wildcat’s Skycenter atop Ms. Mt. Sara Lemmon.
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5:48 PM.

The amazing rains ahead

Nothing that you don’t already know about, so no use me blabbing about it too much.  But in case you haven’t seen it, The Return of Joe Low (after over-hydrating over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific), is expected over the next couple of days, with a little help from another disturbance, to bring colossal rains to eastern Arizona and especially New Mexico.

Below, from our friendly U of  A Wildcat Weather Department a model run from yesterday’s 5 PM global data (the Wildcat’s downsize the US WRF-GFS model in this awesome depiction).

Check out the totals expected by the evening of October 23 rd.  Stupendous.  Usually these totals are a bit overdone, but even so…… Will take a nice bite out of drought.

Precipitation totals expected by 5 PM AST October 23rd.  Looks something like a tie-dyed Tee.
Precipitation totals expected by 5 PM AST October 23rd. Looks something like a tie-dyed Tee.

The End

Surprise late April rain, thunder strike Catalina! Snow piling up on Ms. Lemmon!

Gasp these late April totals from the Pima County ALERT gauges, as of whenever you look, along side our Sutherland Heights total, as of 7 AM now, of 0.58 inches.  This total is about the normal for the month of April here.  Fantastic.  Several nearby mountain and Catalina foothill totals are well over an inch with Oracle Ridge having 1.50 inches!  However, the top of Ms. Mt. Lemmon is reporting nothing, which means the precip there is falling as snow.  Nice couple of thunderblasts last night between 1:30 and 2 AM, too.

Yesterday, the latest wrf-goofus model (executed by the U of AZ at 11 PM AST night before last), had no rain in Catalina, and only a pittance in the mountains east of us.

Still a chance for measurable rain during the day today, too, but it’ll be gone by tomorrow, and it’ll likely bt a long time before rain returns.

Yesterday’s clouds

2:53 PM.
2:53 PM.
2:54 PM.  Cloud street again.
2:54 PM. Cloud street again.
5:39 PM.  Disappeared for awhile, then came back.
5:39 PM. Disappeared for awhile, then came back.
5:52 PM. The look of a storm, Altostratus above Cumulus and Stratocumulus.
5:52 PM. The look of a storm, Altostratus above Cumulus and Stratocumulus.

 

The End, for now, anyway.

 

—————

1Total is from a CoCoRahs gauge, not the Davis Vantage Pro online tipping bucket, which registers slightly low.

El Niño Risin’, “Cal Niño” persists; another comet passes over Tucson?

“I think a year ago I sent you the early alert that Eel Ninyo is coming!!! Well, I think I was about 1 year early … the real deal seems to be gearing up for a more major appearance this year … check it out: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

“My fingers are crossed for a much more typical event for 2015/16, but then again we seem to be in a very similar place as we were last year at this time (caveat part of e-mail) only a bit warmer in the tropics.”

“We shall see!”

—-from Nate M., NOAA SW Fisheries Center El Niño expert, personal communication, received just yesterday!  Excitement abounds!

But,  we will see as well…

Below, a different SST anomaly visual from NOAA:

Global sea surface temperature anomalies from NOAA, as of March 30th.  The eastern Pacific and eastern equatorial waters are aflame, figuratively speaking, of course.
Global sea surface temperature anomalies from NOAA, as of March 30th. The eastern Pacific and eastern equatorial waters are aflame, figuratively speaking, of course.  Both the “Classic Niño” (off Peru) and “The New Niño” regions, the latter in the mid and eastern Pacific,  have above normal water temperatures!

There is a LOT of warmer than normal water out there!  As we know now, the newly discovered “California Niño” helped tropical storms whisk into Arizona late last summer and fall stronger and wetter than they normally would be by providing warmer waters than normal over which they traveled while heading toward AZ.  Think of something like the highly-caffeinated “Jolt Cola”  in sea surface temperatures for those storms.

Slackening onshore winds along the West Coast last spring and summer created the Cal Niño, something now known to occur from time to time over the decades.  And that warm water wasn’t much perturbed by strong storms during the winter, ones that can mix colder water to the surface.  The Cal Niño means that IF any storm strikes the West Coast, they would be a little wetter than usual since the air holds more water in it when its warmer.

In the meantime,  the much-heralded El Niño of a year ago1 deflated like a New England Patriots game time football into a pile of nothing, wrecking the expectations of frequent late winter and spring rains  in the Great SW.  Thankfully we had that ONE great, several inches rainstorm at the end of January2 and a couple of vegetation-sustaining rains thereafter.

What does all this mean for our immediate future?  Will the late spring be wet?  Will we have a great summer rain season?

I don’t know.

But, next winter could be great!

Today’s clouds and weather

Rain is expected to be around today, sprinkles, maybe some thunder due to a weak low aloft passing to the south of us.  Cloud drift is supposed to be from the east off the Catalinas, and with the unusual warmth, the day will LOOK like a day in July or August, nice Cumulus building off the mountains in the later morning, reaching the ice-forming level fairly quickly, and then, as you know, out pops the virga and precip.  So, it will be a nice photogenic day for you.  Check this nice graphic of the expected temperature profiles today from the U of A.

 The weather WAY ahead

Recall that today and tomorrow, at one time, as was mentioned here, we were going to experience one of the greatest storms ever observed for this time of year.  Well, today’s situation is what’s left of that forecast, a coupla puny showers around, and, sure a trough is here all right, but what a disappointment!

In the meantime, forgetting about the perpetual disappointments for big rains foretold about two weeks in advance, we are once again excited by another great rain here in the far model horizon of just two weeks from now, in mid-April!

Valid at 5 PM AST, April 14th.  Could put a real dent in our usual April dryness!
Valid at 5 PM AST, April 14th, only 348 h from now!   Could put a real dent in our usual April dryness!  Colored regions denote those areas where the WRF-GOOFUS model has calculated through VERY sophisticated means,  where precipitation has fallen in the prior 12 h!  This from global obs taken at 5 PM AST last evening.

Yesterday’s clouds and more

From two days ago.  Another comet passed over.  Didn't read anything about it, though.
From two days ago. Another comet passed over. Didn’t read anything about it, though. I guess the astronomers have seen enough comets. Probably a little jaded by now by so many of them.
Close up.  You can see its trailing ice and dust, burned off by the sun.
Close up. You can see its trailing ice and dust, burned off by the sun.  Its great to live in a place where so many comets go over!  I think that’s two or three in the past year!
Awful green here in Arizona.  I wonder how many people know how green it is here?
Awful green here in Arizona. I wonder how many people know how green it is here?  I think a LOT of people have no idea how green it is here (at this time of year).

 

5:58 PM.  Thought for a fun shot I would show you some castellanus from yesterday.
5:58 PM. Thought for a fun shot I would show you some castellanus from yesterday.
6:45 PM.  Sunset.
6:45 PM. Post sunset, Altocumulus under patches of Altostratus, or, Cirrus spissatus if you like.

 

The End

———————-

1Not just here, but by people that know more than I do, like the CPC.

2Water is still coming down from the mountains from that 4-6 incher in the Catalina Mountains, water that can be seen still pouring over great boulders in the higher reaches of our mountains producing  the morning “glistening rocks” phenomenon.  “Glistening Rocks”….   That would be a great title for a love song, a sad one, because as we all know, sooner or later, we won’t see the water producing glistening rocks anymore from the big January rain.  So it would have to be about a love that starts out so strong, but then fades over time, finally disappearing altogether.

The first of many cloud blobs in the days ahead, some rain-filled, passes over during the night

Here it is.  You may need an optical enhancement tool to see the radar echo speck nearest Catalina, and its not the one nearest the arrowhead below, but continue in that direction:

Ann 201502230700_SWR2
Satellite and radar imagery for midnight last night. Notice cloud blob and radar echoes over and near Catalina, Arizona. I really thought there’d be some drops here as this went over!

You can also check on all the rain  that  fell overnight in the region  here, courtesy of Pima County ALERT rain gauges.  BTW, they aren’t capable of reporting traces, so if you see  bunches of zeroes, it doesn’t mean some drops didn’t fall somewhere in the network.

Non-verification of this rain can also be found via our fine TUS NWS “storm total” view, 10:30 PM to 4:30 AM this morning:

Regional radar-derived storm total from "rainy cloud blob."
Regional radar-derived storm total from “rainy cloud blob.”  Arrow almost reaches Catalina; didn’t want to cover up a pixel of rain, if there.  THAT radar did not pick up the rain I feel must have fallen, so we have quite a conundrum.  If you would like to see for yourself how much rain fell last night, go here.  Will be looking for drop images in the dust as soon as it gets light, too!

In the meantime, all those rainy cloud blobs to our NW right now (first image) look like they will be able to just make it to Catalinaland after all.

In our last chapter, it looked like the strong cold front would move through tomorrow as just a dry cold one, but now the chances of having a little rain (a wet cold one) have been zooming up.  The models have readjusted their thinking and now that critical ingredient, the core of the jet stream (at 500 mb) passing over us ahead of the trough core itself is being predicted.

And with that configuration as the front goes by Catalina, and believe me you’ll know by the 10-15 degree temperature drop, a tiny amount of rain might fall.  Also, look for a pronounced lowering of cloud bases to the W-N of Catalina as it gets close, something in the way of an “arcus cloud”, marking the leading edge of the windshift to the N.  Could be nice and dramatic looking tomorrow.  Those cloud base lowerings are pretty common with fronts here.

How much rain?

Oh,  possibilities range between 0 (a complete bust is still possible) to only about 0.25 inches, tops in the “best” of circumstances.  But, this keyboard would like to see ANYTHING measurable; that would bring happiness.

There are some more rain blobs showing up in regular intervals in the days ahead for you to think about, as rendered by IPS MeteoStar.  Arrows have been added to show you where you are, if you are in SE Arizona:

Valid tomorrow morning at 11 AM AST.  Colored areas denote regions where the model has calculated precipitation during the preceding 6 h.
Valid tomorrow morning at 11 AM AST. Colored areas denote regions where the model has calculated precipitation during the preceding 6 h.

In the storm below, which is pretty much going to happen now, the range of amounts as seen from here, at least 0.15 inches, top, 0.50 inches, best guess, therefore, 0.33 inches (from averaging the two.)

Val at 11 PM, March 1st. Colored areas are those in which the model has calculated that precip has fallen during the prior 6 h.
Val at 11 PM, March 1st. Colored areas are those in which the model has calculated that precip has fallen during the prior 6 h.

There’s great uncertainly in whether this last storm will actually occur, so range of amounts are zero to 1 inch.  :}   See reasons for uncertainty below, besides being too far in advance or our models to be reliable anyway.

Ann 2015022300_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_264
Valid Friday, March 5th, at 5 PM AST. Colored regions NOW denote areas of precipitation that have fallen during the prior TWELVE hours. (Mod resolution degrades after about 192 h, and so a coarser view of precip areas is used.)

While a significant storm on the 1st is virtually assured according to spaghetti, this last major event in the panel above is doubtful.  See below,  in another lesson on consuming weather spaghetti:

Ensemble spaghetti valid for the same time as the panel above, 5 PM AST Friday, March 5th.  Not much support for a storm, low confidence is indicated by the LACK of bunching red and blue lines, unlike those off the East Coast, and over there east of Asia.
Ensemble spaghetti valid for the same time as the panel above, 5 PM AST Friday, March 5th. Not much support for a storm, low confidence is indicated by the LACK of bunching red and blue lines, unlike those off the East Coast, and over there east of Asia.  So, while a great storm is predicted in last evening’s model run, prepare for sadness and disappointment as a hedge.

 Yesterday’s fine clouds

7:10 AM.  A couple of shafts of big virga.  Likely a drop or two reached the ground.
7:10 AM. A couple of shafts of big virga. Likely a drop or two reached the ground.  Could have been caused by aircraft penetrations, or, taller Altocumulus castellanus-like turrets that reached lower temperatures, produced more ice.  They look suspiciously like an aircraft artifact due to their very small size.
7:41 AM.  Nice stack of lenticular pancakes in the lee of the Catalinas.
7:41 AM. Nice stack of lenticular pancakes in the lee of the Catalinas.  You can see some great lenticular occurrences in the U of AZ Time Laps movie for yesterday.  There are also a lot other fascinating things that go on in yesterday’s clouds, too.
8:05 AM.  Natural virga approaches Catalina.  Looked for a drop as it went over, but saw none.
8:05 AM. Clearly natural virga approaches Catalina. Looked for a drop as it went over, but saw none.
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8:22 AM. Pancakes downstream from Ms. Mt. Lemmon.
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8:44 AM. Fairy dusters in bloom!
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9:07 AM. Doggies, Emma, and little Banjo, sample and inspect water STILL running in the Sutherland Wash!
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1:46 PM. After a brief sunny period, banks of Altocumulus invade the sky.
2:46 PM.  Altocumulus opacus clouds continue to fill in, darken.
2:46 PM. Altocumulus opacus clouds continue to fill in, darken.
5:40 PM.  Muliple layers of clouds stream ahead of sprinkle producing cloud blob just upwind at this time.
5:40 PM. Muliple layers of clouds stream ahead of sprinkle-producing cloud blob just upwind at this time. Note how the Altocumulus opacus clouds disappeared, leaving lenticular like formations, with a thin ice cloud (Cirrostratus) above.

The End, though I COULD go on and on and on, and then on some more.  Its who I am….

Not to worry; plenty of model rain still ahead in models

1While several inches of model2 rain has occurred in Catalina and in the nearby mountains this month, most of which cloud-maven person has festooned his blog with model panels of, there really hasn’t been any ACTUAL rain.

But having said that, there is even MORE model rain ahead, some beginning tomorrow in these parts.  Tomorrow’s rain comes from a sub-tropical minor wave ejecting from the sub-tropics.  You know, as a CMJ, a wave from that zone means a ton of high and middle clouds,  i.e., likely DENSE Altostratus with virga, something that was seen yesterday off to the SW of us.  This time, though, some rain should fall from these thick clouds, though almost certainly will be in the trace to a tenth of an inch range between tomorrow and Monday morning.

Model rain from 11 PM AST global data then falls in Catalina on:

February 24th

March 1st

March 7-9th

with the model total rain in these periods likely surpassing an inch or more!  What a model rain winter season this has been! Astounding.  The model washes have been running full since late December, too!

BTW, that last model rain period is really a great one, a major rain for ALL of Arizona!

Some recent clouds I have known and a couple of wildflowers
7:36 AM, Thursday, Feb 19:  Iridescence in Cirrocumulus.
7:36 AM, Thursday, Feb 19: Iridescence in Cirrocumulus.
7:52 AM, Thursday, Feb. 19:  Iridescence in Cirrocumulus with a tad of Kelvin-Helholtz waves (center, right)
7:52 AM, Thursday, Feb. 19: Iridescence in Cirrocumulus with a tad of Kelvin-Helholtz waves (center, right), ones that look like breaking ocean waves.  Kind of cool looking.
9:52 AM, Thursday, Feb. 19:  Altocumulus perlucidus exihibing crossing pattern.  Makes you think about football.
9:29 AM, Thursday, Feb. 19: Altocumulus perlucidus exhibiting crossing patterns, rows perpendicular to each other. Makes you think about football and people running out for passes.
9:42 AM, Thursday Feb 19:  An extremely delicate crossing pattern in Cirrocumulus, center.
9:42 AM, Thursday Feb 19: An extremely delicate crossing pattern in Cirrocumulus, center.  You’ll have to drill in good to see it, but its worth it.
10:39 AM, Thrusday, Feb 19: Pretty (mostly) Cirrus spissatus, a thick version in which shading can be observed.
10:39 AM, Thrusday, Feb 19: Pretty (mostly) Cirrus spissatus, a thick version in which shading can be observed.
6:13 PM, Thursday, Feb 19:  No idea what that stick contrail is.  Looks like a flight pattern to induce weightlessness.  Climb rapidly, round off the top, and then go down.  You can be weightless for maybe 10-30 seconds.  Been there, done that in a C-130 Hercules, last FACE flight of 1973, Bill Woodley lead scientist.
6:13 PM, Thursday, Feb 19: No idea what that stick contrail is. Looks like a flight pattern to induce weightlessness. Climb rapidly, round off the top, and then go down. You can be weightless for maybe 10-30 seconds. Been there, done that in a C-130 Hercules, last FACE flight of 1973, Bill Woodley lead cloud seeding scientist.  But, you pay a price, get smashed on the floor as the aircraft comes out of the dive.  You cannot get up!
Let's zoom in and see if we can learn more about this cloud.... Nope.
Let’s zoom in and see if we can learn more about what happened here.  I think a jet pilot was having fun.
Nope.
6:54 AM, yesterday.  Altostratus virga provides a spectacular, if brief sunrise over the Catalinas.
6:54 AM, yesterday. Altostratus virga provides a spectacular, if brief sunrise over the Catalinas.
6:15 PM last evening.
6:15 PM last evening.
DSC_3011
From a dog walk this VERY morning, a desert primrose.
From this morning's dog walk.
And  a desert onion bloom.

The End. Hope you enjoy the copious model rains ahead!

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1Today’s title is cribbed from Spinal Tap song, which is really quite great,  “Tonight I’m going to rock you tonight.”

2WRF-GFS and Canadian Enviro Can GEM accumulated bogus outputs.