Category: The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more)

Cirrus, old and young

Our deep blue sky, loaded with interesting Cirrus clouds yesterday, and generally low in contrail impact, makes southeast Arizona a haven for Cirrus cloud watchers.  Though no one site is completely immune from them, a sky like this, so free of contrails, is impossible on most of the Atlantic Seaboard due to air traffic.  It… Continue reading Cirrus, old and young

Some distant Catalina rain still showing up in SOME model runs

OK, there are a lot of graphics and discussion today, much of it unnecessary as usual, but there it is.  We’ll begin with yesterday….not today. Yesterday morning’s WRF-GOOFUS run once again had rain in Arizona/Catalina area.  Was heartened since the prior 24 h’s predicted rain had disappeared in the three runs after that.  Here’s what… Continue reading Some distant Catalina rain still showing up in SOME model runs

New tee shirt offering; distant weather to write about

Some 8 days ago a spaghetti plot indicated with confidence that  a “warm in the West”, “cool in the East” pattern would develop.  Well it has materialized.  Thanks to Hamweather, this chart shows the records set with that pattern so far.  They’re not so numerous, but the forecast of a strong trough off the West Coast… Continue reading New tee shirt offering; distant weather to write about

Worrying about wildflowers…

November will finish out dry.  And, with the extremely dry October we had followed by a rainless November (Correction here on November 25th!  Egad. We had a nice rain here on November 9-10th in which we received 0.48 inches, about half of November’s average!  Brain fading….  End of correction.) ….you can’t help but start to fret over March,… Continue reading Worrying about wildflowers…

Future weather has a lot of AZ rain, but its more uncertain using US models

Here’s is the latest model run from our USA WRF-GFS (aka, “goofus”, as the Europeans might call it, looking down their noses at our inferior weather predicting model compared with their “ECMWF” model as described (here) in the November 9th issue of Science. It was an upsetting read, BTW. Seems the Euros use bigger, faster computers… Continue reading Future weather has a lot of AZ rain, but its more uncertain using US models

In case you missed it; these clouds and a trace of rain (!)

Once again we were treated to a spectacular sunset, another one in a long series of occasional sunset spectacles, ones that probably go back before the 1900s. We didin’t have color film in the 1800s, so we can’t be for sure if there were spectacular sunsets here except via artist’s renderings, of necessity, of course,… Continue reading In case you missed it; these clouds and a trace of rain (!)

Some clouds; excessive excitement over model flip flops (web crawlers: not about shoes or girls wearing them) for late November

Here they are:                                             Today?  More pretty clouds. The weather way ahead, like on November 29th Just after I was asserting from this typewriter that the big storm, the Great Wet Hope in late… Continue reading Some clouds; excessive excitement over model flip flops (web crawlers: not about shoes or girls wearing them) for late November

Computer model calculates substantial AZ rains on the 29th, but is it real?

Let’s check, could be goofy, but its all we’ve got right now for a rain, the map below valid for Thursday, November 29th, 5PM AST.  The whole series is here. Of course, the weather sophisticate would want to see what’s “up top” at the same time; see where the jet stream is (brown areas on the… Continue reading Computer model calculates substantial AZ rains on the 29th, but is it real?