Cloud-maven – Page 43 – About real clouds, weather, cloud seeding and science autobio life stories by WMO consolation prize-winning meteorologist, Art Rangno

A rare mid-morning storm

Below, way below, are the 24 h totals for yesterday’s storm from all of the Pima County ALERT gauges, in case you missed seeing them. The south portions of Catalina got the most of that storm around here, while the north portion was “nil-ed”, as in recent, “one-nil”, soccer talk. A real oddity is that the Catalina Mountain stations in this network saw no rain.

I’ve posted these amounts instead of the link to them because its a “rolling archive”, constantly being updated, and so before long, yesterday’s amazing storm will be disappearing as the hours go by while you’re still sleeping, making brain-clearing coffee, etc.

SH (Sutherland Heights got only 0.01 inches, an embarrassing and disheartening total when you think of how close the heavy rain was. Just south of Golder Ranch Drive on Swan, an inch was recorded, and for a few minutes yesterday morning with that cold south wind blowing, low scudding clouds just above the mesquite trees, and frequent lightning strikes just to the east, it appeared the bottom was about to drop on us Sutherlanders.

It was a rare event, not so much in the rain amounts, but rather the time that it exploded over the TUS region; after sunrise through about noon, after which the forces of dissipation took over. For a great look at this development, go here to the U of AZ time lapse film for yesterday.

As we know here, that period between sunrise and noon is USUALLY one of cloud dissipation; nighttime clouds thin and clear, whilst new Cumulus clouds begin to arise over the high mountains. I am going to link to Bob Maddox’s analysis if this event when he is done with it later this morning. You see, Dr. Bob is one of the world’s premier experts on convection and the organization of Cumulonimbus clouds into big clusters. It would be good for you to read what he has to say. Saves me a lotta work, too. Also, he has some great graphics.

On the other hand, Mr. Cloud Maven person’s experience, as a Pac NWesterner in airborne cloud research at the U of WA, is limited to a tremendous, I tell you, amount of flying into itty-bitty Cumulonimbus clouds that top out at or below only about 12,000 feet above sea level. We especially liked them if their tops were not colder than -10 C¹. For comparison, yesterday’s powerful storms likely topped out at 50,000 feet and had top temperatures lower than -60 C! Well, really, there’s no comparison.

Catalina Area
    1010     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke
    1020     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle
    1040     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap
    1060     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Pig Spring                   approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap
    1070     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.79      Cargodera Canyon             northeast corner of Catalina State Park
    1080     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke
    1100     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.28      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak
    1090     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp
    1130     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      White Tail                   Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch

Santa Catalina Foothills
    2090     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      TV @ Guest Ranch             Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Guest Ranch
    2100     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      DEQ Swan                     Swan Road at Calle del Pantera
    2160     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Sabino @ USFS Dam            Sabino Creek at USFS Dam
    2170     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Ventana @ Sunrise            Ventana Canyon Wash at Sunrise Road
    2190     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Al-Marah                     near El Marah on Bear Canyon Road
    2200     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      AC Wash @ TV Bridge          Agua Caliente Wash at Tanque Verde Road
    2210     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.28      Catalina Boosters            Houghton Road 0.1 miles south of Catalina Highway
    2220     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Agua Caliente Park           Agua Caliente Park
    2230     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      El Camino Rinconado          El Camino Rinconado 0.5 miles north of Reddington Road
    2240     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Molino Canyon                Mt Lemmon Highway near Mile Post 3
    2390     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.16      Finger Rock @ Skyli          Finger Rock Wash at Sunrise Road

Redington Pass Area
    2020     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Park Tank                    Redington Pass, 0.8 miles south of Park Tank
    2030     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Italian Trap                 Redington Pass, 0.7 miles east southeast of Italian Trap Tank
    2040     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      White Tank                   Redington Road near White Tank
    2050     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Bellota Ranch Road           Bellota Ranch Road near Redington Road
    2070     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      TV @ Chiva Tank              Tanque Verde Wash 0.5 miles south of Chiva Tank
    2080     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Alamo Tank                   Redington Road near Alamo Well

Rincon Mountains
4100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Manning Camp Manning Camp in the Rincon Mountains
4110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rincon Creek Rincon Creek at X-9 Ranch

Greater Tucson
    2110     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      TV @ TV Road                 Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Road
    2120     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      TV @ Sabino Cyn Rd           Tanque Verde Wash at Sabino Canyon Road
    2300     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.24      Well D-37                    Rosewood Street west of Harrison Road
    2310     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Well E-23                    Rancho El Mirador north of Broadway Boulevard
    2320     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Beverly Well C-51            Beverly Avenue at Hawthorne Street
    2330     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      Kolb Boosters                Kolb Road at Golf Links
    2350     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.08      Rillito @ Dodge              Rillito Creek at Dodge Boulevard
    2360     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.22      Rillito @ La Cholla          Rillito Creek at La Cholla Boulevard
    2370     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Alamo @ Glenn                Alamo Wash at Glenn Street
    2380     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.30      DEQ Ruthraff                 Ruthrauff Road at La Cholla Boulevard
    4160     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.24      E-8                          Irvington Road near Pantano Road
    4180     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Pantano @ Houghton           Pantano Wash at Houghton Road
    6040     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      Santa Cruz@Valencia          Santa Cruz River at Valencia Road
    6180     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.59      ArroyoChico@Cherry           Arroyo Chico at Cherry Street
    6190     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.51      Arroyo Chico@Randol          Arroyo Chico at Randolph Way
    6230     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.51      Ajo Detention Basin          Tucson Diversion Channel at Ajo Detention Basin
    6240     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.63      DEQ Cntry Clb                Country Club Road near Columbia Street
    6250     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Craycroft@Golf Link          Craycroft Road at Golf Links Road
    6260     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.08      Tucson Electric Pow          Irvington Road at Belvedere Avenue
    6270     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.47      Pima Air Museum              Valencia Road at Pima Air Museum

Southern Tucson Area
    6200     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Summit Elementary            Summit Street at Epperson Lane
    6210     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Franco @ Swan                Franco Wash at Swan Road
    6220     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      PC Fairgrounds               Houghton Road at Dawn Road
    6280     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Wilmot                       Wilmot Road 2 miles south of Old Vail Connection Road
    6290     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      Corona                       Sahuarita Road at Sewage Treatment Plant

Altar/Avra Valley Area Area
    6370     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Arivaca                      Las Guijas Mountains near Arivaca
    6380     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.08      Altar Wash @ Hwy 28          Altar Wash at Highway 286
    6410     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Diamond Bell                 Diamond Bell near Stagecoach Road at Killarney Avenue
    6420     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.16      Brawley@Three Point          Brawley Wash at Highway 86
    6430     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.31      Vahala Park                  Wade Road at Los Reales
    6440     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.31      Brawley@Milewide             Brawley Wash at Milewide Road
    6450     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Hilltop Rd                   Hilltop Road at Riveria Road
    6460     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.83      Picture Rocks CC             Picture Rocks Community Center
    6470     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.59      Michigan @ Calgary           Michigan Street at Calgary Avenue

Marana/Oro Valley Area
    1200     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.08         1.06      CDO @ Ina Road               Cañada Del Oro Wash at Ina Road
    1230     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      Oro Valley PW                Calle Concordia at Calle El Milagro
    1240     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         2.17      Moore Rd                     Moore Road at La Cholla
    1250     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.24      Pima Wash @ Ina              Pima Wash at Ina Road
    1260     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.89      Big Wash                     Big Wash at Rancho Vistoso Boulevard
    1270     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.26      CDO @ Big Wash               Cañada Del Oro Wash near Oracle Road
    6020     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.02      Santa Cruz @ Ina             Santa Cruz River at Ina Road
    6110     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.67      Avra Valley Airpark          Santa Cruz River 0.5 miles east of Sanders Road

Vail Area
    4220     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.08      Rancho Del Lago              approximately 1.8 miles northwest of Vail
    4250     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Pantano @ Vail               Pantano Wash 1.5 miles southeast of Colossal Cave Road
    4270     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.08      Salcido Place                6 miles north-northwest of Mescal
    4280     Site temporarily removed due to road construction        Cienega Crk @ I-10           Cienega Creek at Interstate 10
    4290     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      Mescal                       2 miles northwest of Mescal
    4310     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Davidson Canyon              Davidson Canyon Wash 0.25 miles south of Interstate 10
    4320     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Empire Peak                  Empire Peak
    4410     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Haystack Mtn.                Haystack Mountain

Green Valley Area
    6050     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      Santa Cruz@Continen          Santa Cruz River at Continental Road
    6060     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Santa Cruz@Conoa             Santa Cruz River at Elephant Head Road
    6080     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Santa Cruz@Tubac             Santa Cruz River at Tubac
    6310     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.26      Keystone Peak                Keystone Peak
    6320     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.51      Tinaja Ranch                 near Caterpillar Proving Ground
    6330     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Anamax                       Mission Road north of Continental Road
    6350     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Elephant Head Butte          near Elephant Head Butte
    6390     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.00      Florida Canyon               Florida Canyon Work Center

After 7 AM, you will also be able to round up totals from the University of Arizona rainlog.org site, and also
the CoCoRahs site for Arizona.

The USGS 24 h rolling archive is here.

Our NWS data are here; click on Regional and State Summaries (“latest”).

Since, like me, you have neighbors in the area that measure rainfall, but don’t report anywhere, you’ll want to call them up and list those amounts as well.

Now that we’ve rounded up about as much rainfall data as we can, its time for some cloud photos, a lot of them to tell yesterday’s story:

8:12 AM. Nothin’ much going on, two layers evident. A higher layer of Altocumulus perlucidus (top right), and a lower deck of scattered Cumulus, not likely formed from rising currents from the ground, but triggered by a general upward motion of the air, enhanced over the mountains.

8:12 AM also, looking SSW toward Tucson and Pusch Ridge. The two layers are evident here as well, and towers in the lower layer are evident. Still, not much going on in the radar at this time.

DSC_0286-1 — By 9:24 AM, the “explosion” was well underway as those turrets began to group into a huge cluster spewing heavy rain and lightning. But would it make Catalina? It seemed to be moving parallel to us and not toward Catalina, spreading westward toward Marana and the south part of Oro Valley. Notice the difference between this shot and the one above.

Ann DSC_0295 — 10:10 AM. The storm continues to march across west Tucson and toward Marana. Just a hint of a cloud bank on the side toward us, something that might be fueled by outflow spreading north and northeastward that might cause the storm to grow in our direction.

11:01 AM. Looking more promising as SW wind heading from storm causes new Cumulus bases to form on its northeast side! Gettin' closer, hopes beginning to rise. — 11:01 AM. Looking to SW toward Marana and more promising as SW wind blowing out from storm causes new Cumulus bases to form on its northeast side! But, with the overall coolness of the morning, will those bases grow up to be Cumulonimbus clouds? Gettin’ closer; hopes risin’.

11:14 AM. SW wind has hit, temperature dropped by about 5 degrees into the low 70s (!). Oregon visitor next door says he feels COLD! But, look at that base! So nice, so firm, so fully packed! Bound to cut loose with a big dump, and those bases like that are propagating in this direction, borne on that SW push of wind. Note scruffy Stratus fractus clouds lining the Catalinas, brought about by that surge of cooler air near the ground that resulted in condensation at the top of that wind layer. The cloud base above it is due to the lower wind layer lifting en masse, the air its undercutting. Not described so well me thinks.

11:20 AM. Sure enough, a cloudburst results from the new firm bases! Something around 2 inches in an hour fell in Marana at this time, and, overall, its getting still closer to Catalina!

11:32 AM. Frequent cloud to ground strikes are occurring east of Catalina, and the low, scudding clouds of the outflow winds have covered the sky. This was such a dramatic scene. Looking S, the heavy rain, from yet another new cell that formed above the cold outflow wind over and just east of the south part of Catalina. The pounding rain that produced an inch only about a mile and a half south of Sutherland Heights is falling now.

Well, we here in Sutherland Heights know what happened next. As quickly as the sky had deteriorated to a low overcast with plenty of lightning, the low clouds disappeared and the rain area began to recede to the south and west, dissipating slowly as it did. It was a truly horrible sight, not worthy of a photo.

Ironically, something in the way of the little Cumulonimbus clouds CMP flew in developed late in the afternoon, and presented an example of ice formation at temperatures only a little below freezing (tops likely around -10 C). Here is that pretty cloud over the Catalinas.

4:45 PM. A small Cumulonimbus capillatus cloud over Catalinas. At least the storm had cleared out the hazy air of the prior day.

The day concluded with all the Cumulus clouds having disappeared, but leaving enough residual middle and high clouds for a decent sunset photo.

7:30 PM. A dramatic, if ultimately disappointing day for us here in the Heights, finishes with a nice sunset.

The End.

—————————-

¹Had to do with long-term studies of the theories and lab results concerning the mystery of ice formation in clouds with top temperatures higher than -10 C. Its common, but is quite complex, and not yet completely understood. So, we avoided bigger, colder-topped clouds as much as we could. BTW, while it may seem incredible that ice formation is not completely understood, but let us remember that the so-called Standard Model of particle physics is also incomplete. How many years have those guys been studying that? Its embarrassing, really.

Hazy thunder and rain day

0.17 inches at Sutherland Heights, 0.39 inches at the Golder Bridge, 1-1.5 inches in some spots in Oro Valley. Coulda done better here, but HECK, it rained, and that’s always good. Desert greening up real fast.

Thunder started around noon in a strangely hazy, murky-looking sky, more reminiscent of a back-East, warm, humid, pre-storm day where the only blue is a tiny hole above the observer; clouds and rainshafts virtually invisible. OK, I’m exaggerating a little, wasn’t really THAT bad here, but it was noticeable to all CMJs I’m sure.

Since the flow was from the east and southeast here, we have to blame the smoky, dusty and hazy skies on New Mexico, Texas, or Mexico. But, let us check before throwing out unsupported accusations of hazy, possibly bad air sources. From NOAA, this:

Problem solved. Was mostly dust from the El Paso area.

———————-factual filler material—————-

Recall, humid days need NOT be hazy. We get some gloriously high visibility days here on some of the most humid ones in the summer because the air is so clean.

—————————————————————–

Now for clouds….as a short cut, since I take and post too many photos due to an obsessive-compulsion with documenting them along with captions occasional captions containing immature “humor” (as below¹), I recommend you go to the movies as a way of bypassing a lot of cloud blather:

Cloud Movie ( Remember that in this movie, what’s above us is on the left hand side of the frame, past Pusch Ridge.)

Below, your cloud day in still photography, beginning with the day’s highlight shot.

2:59 PM. Your Catalina/Sutherland Heights highlight of the day. Why is this cloud base especially dark? Not only is it because its a deep Cumulus congestus cloud piled high above you, one that is about to transform into a Cumulonimbus cloud (having a strong rainshaft), but also because clouds impacted by smog (those sulfates, in this case) have, overall, smaller cloud droplets, and those smaller droplets reflect more of the incoming sunlight off their tops. This makes the bases darker than for “clean clouds”, ones that don’t reflect as much sunlight off their tops.

11:59 AM. Turkey vulture circles in hazy skies, the whitish appearance between clouds evidence of high aerosol “loading” in yesterday.

2:08 PM. Turret phase detection test. — 2:08 PM. Turret phase detection snap quiz.

2:08 PM. Annotated close up of snap quiz turret. (Ans: its mostly ice, technically a Cumulonimbus calvus cloud top. See movie for more visual details. Hope you got it, since the main reason why I am doing this is to learn you up on these kinds of assessments….)

2:33 PM. The oddly gray whole sky view at this time, and, along with moderate temperatures that made one wonder if any more of these clouds could sprout into thunderstorms. But, they did. See below.

3:23 PM. Another in a series of ominously dark cloud bases that poured forth heavy rainshafts sits over Oro Valley.

3:29 PM. Probably the best dump of the day, the one that fell out of the cloud above. Produced something in the way of a ‘boob, if you were watching. (Editor’s note: be sure to include the apostrophe when using the short version of “haboob”, otherwise people might wonder what you were really thinking about.

3:33 PM. Something in the way of a ‘boob produced by the extremely heavy rain that fell out of the cloud above, likely an inch or more in the core. One private weather station in Oro Valley reported 1.44 inches.

5:33 PM. These delicate, low-based Cumulus clouds shooting little spires upward so late in the day under a higher overcast illustrate the strong instability that we had yesterday.

Looks like today might be the last thunder day here in the Heights for awhile, as an unusual mid-July dry spell sets in. Still looks wet late in the month.

The End.

Thundering herd roars down from the Catalinas; more thunder expected

A rare day for Catalinians: five thundering cells drifted off Ms. Mt. Lemmon and its environs and over Catalina and Oro Valley yesterday providing lots of local excitement. The Sutherland Heights district got 0.46 inches, and early on, was leading Mt. Lemmon and the Samaniego Peak gauges because the cells did not drop their loads until over the foothills and the Valley. Below, the exciting day reprised:

12:52. Cloud street drifts off the Catalinas over Catalina. Because the Cumulus clouds didn’t seem to be going anywhere, were so modest in the afternoon, rather than thundering before noon, I was kind of sad, disappointed.

1:46 PM. But, then when suddenly those clouds began erupting upward, reaching the ice-forming level, and rain falling out, I was so happy. Started raining on me a few minutes after this shot. You can see the slight initial rainshaft to the right of center on the foothills of the Catalina Mountains.

1:51 PM. Rain approaches Sutherland Heights/Catalina from the east. The little guys up there began to thunder as well. Several cloud to ground strikes in that area you see in the photo! Amazing how small a lightning producing cloud can be here sometimes. However, “thunder1” only dropped 0.06 inches here; more fell a little south. Still, it was so great to see measurable rain fall!

2:11 PM. Remarkably, and hopefully, after thunder1 went by, it looked like another cell might drift off the Catalinas into Catalina soon afterward!

2:25 PM. Thunder2 underway toward the Gap. — 2:25 PM. Thunder2 underway on Sam Ridge. Samaniego Peak recorded 0.94 inches yesterday. More cloud to ground strikes here, some rather distant, a mile or two, from this shaft, so watch it when you’re watching it. (Professional viewer; do not attempt.)

3:58 PM. Thunder3 rolls off the Catalinas! This was much larger than Thunder1 and 21, and drenched the south side of Catalina, and into Oro Valley with rains of around half an inch. The lightning was awesome.

4:02 PM, just FOUR minutes later! Thunder3 in full dump mode. — 4:02 PM, just FOUR minutes later! Thunder3 in full dump mode, lightning galore!

4:14 PM. Small crowd of lightning viewers. One is using the cushion technique of blocking lightning. It is NOT effective; this is an urban legend. — 4:14 PM. Small crowd of local lightning viewers. On the left, a viewer is using the “cushion technique” to block lightning. It is NOT effective; this is an urban legend. This cannot be emphasized enough.

5:10 PM. A remarkable Thunder4 formed on the Catalinas and headed toward Catalina! I could not believe it!

6:07 PM. If there was a downside to the rain, it was that dusty floodwaters (a great name for a western singer, BTW) began to impact dirt roads. — 6:07 PM. If there was a downside to the rain, it was that dusty floodwaters (another great name for a western singer) began to impact dirt roads. Note sign at right…

7:29 PM. The day ended with a great rosy glow (another great name for a singer!) on the northwestern horizon, but it wasn't the end of the thundering herd, was it? Nope. — 7:29 PM. The day ended with a great rosy glow (another great name for a singer!) on the northwestern horizon, but it wasn’t the end of the thundering herd, was it? Nope. FQT LTG was only an hour or so away. Now that was really was amazing, that Thunder5, developing near and rolling off the Cat Mountains early last evening. What a great day it was after appearing to be a disappointing one during the late morning and early afternoon. To reprise the whole day: see movie.

Well, C-M person has told enough stories about past weather for today, so shutting down here at 4:42 AM. Dewpoints are still very high, mods expecting more thundering herds in the Catalina/Oro Valley area today.

Have camera ready for some great shaft shots, those black, straight sided ones that go all the way to the ground. If you can, try to get the shot just before the bottom drops out; the two make a great, dramatic couplet for friends and family to enjoy I find.

Farther ahead…..

A disturbing, possibly week long dry spell has been showing up in the models, beginning the 17th, lasting through the 25th or so. Has to do with a giant summertime upper level trough set to bring those record low temps to the upper Midwest beginning in the next few days. The NW flow on the backside of this trough is foretold to extend into Arizona, thus, drying things out and pushing the tropical air southward. May see some hot days and only small Cu and maybe very isolated, distant Cumulonimbus clouds during that time. Ugh.

On the bright side, spaghetti says, and with a lot of confidence, that the dry spell will be eroded and the normal wetness will return after the 25th or so. I think you can see that here, now that you’re an expert spaghetti consumer:

NOAA "spaghetti" plot, valid for 1700 AST, July 26th. Looks great for storms! — NOAA “spaghetti” plot, valid for 1700 AST, July 26th. Looks great for storms!

The End.

Supercloud’s CAPE to be bigger today

I was marveling at this title, one that just came out of nowhere, using the idea of a superhero and a standard measure of how bubbly the clouds might be. I really don’t know how it happened, but there it was…

Think of “supercloud” as a Cumulonimbus cloud, those giants of the cloud kingdom, ones that can top out near 70,000 feet above sea level and can have UPDRAFTS as high as 80-100 mph in their very rare and strongest forms (where nothing can fall out, of course). An armored T-28 research aircraft operated by the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology flew through one of those superclouds; went up on its own some 5,000 feet in a minute!

Well, of course, clouds in Arizona are never THAT bad (or good) depending on your viewpoint, but today, according to millions of calculations in the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster, the Cumulonimbus clouds of today will be more bouyant than the ones we had yesterday. We get that indication from last night’s 11 PM AST model run where it calculates something called “Convective Available Potential Energy”, or CAPE. Today’s CAPE will be about two or three times larger than yesterday’s, according to the model. Orangutang¹. A first test of that U of AZ model’s prediction will be in this morning’s Tucson balloon sounding, which needs to replicate the model’s prediction for that time of day to have confidence in it. (Will have to wait for quite awhile here while our TUS sounding; its still on its journey upward now at 5:11 AM.)

Precition of the TUS sounding for 5 AM AST. The red, dashed line delineates, with some terrible assumptions though, the amount of CAPE. Not much here, only — Predicted TUS sounding for 5 AM AST by the U of AZ supermodel which downsizes that output from the NOAA WRF-GFS one. The red, dashed line delineates, with some terrible assumptions though, like the air isn’t mixing with the air around and above it, nevertheless its very useful. The amount of CAPE isn’t much here, only “500”, though its pretty good for 5 AM AST. Supposed to be well over “1,000” by this afternoon!

The TUS ballon sounding ("rawinsonde") for 5 AM AST this morning (July 13th). Not as much CAPE suggested here as in the model, though the definition is somewhat different from the model. — The TUS ballon sounding (“rawinsonde”) for 5 AM AST this morning (July 13th). Ooops! Not as much CAPE suggested here as in the model, though the definition is somewhat different from the model (which is Mixed layer CAPE, or MCAPE).

So, what does all this gobbledygook mean? Casting aside the fact that the actual sounding is not quite as unstable as our local model was predicting due to writer’s “confirmation bias”, a killer of good science, we should have sooner², bigger dumps overall in the area, and happily, more of them. Thunder on Ms. Lemmon before noon will be a very good sign that the model has captured today pretty well.

Yesterday’s clouds and a stupefying sunset scene to the east

7:56 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus (cellular area) and opacus (solid gray areas).

1:55 PM. First moderate-sized Cumulonimbus arose just before this, vicinity of Oracle.

2:16 PM. Pretty typical of yesterday’s rainshafts. Sprinkled (its NOT drizzle!) here in Sutherland Heights after this. We get mad when we think of people calling sprinkles, “drizzle” as you know, and it just kind of came there.) My apologies.

7:19 PM. Glorious coloration of our fabulous Catalina Mountains, specifically, the lower portions of Samaniego Ridge.

7:27 PM. A glorious halo effect created by a former Cumlonimbus anvil, a few minutes later. This was an incredible scene. Was lucky to be out and capture it.

The End.

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¹An unexpected word has been inserted as a reader check. Is anybody still reading this? Techno-language causes droopy eyelids, makes people want to give up reading altogether, kids to fall behind in their STEM work. Its quite a powerful effect.

²I have a some relatives and friends in Oklahoma that root for the U of O Sooners. I will be rooting for sooners today, too.

Rain today?

Its always nice to know that someone around you got an inch when you only got a trace; builds character because you’re glad for THEM and not moaning about a rain miss or Ms. Rain, 2014.

So, that’s the kind of day it was yesterday. Thunder on the north side of The Lemmon by early afternoon on for a an hour or so, with that associated rain shield/anvil passing north of us–0.98 inches fell at Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge, BTW.

Later, big, fat Cumulus starting to line up to the north of us, as they often do, and then exploded into strong storms with good outflows in the middle of the afternoon; black columns of rain pounding down in the desert just north of Saddlebrooke. Certainly an inch or more fell out there in the core of that storm.

So, its “great” to think of desert critters and vegetation near us getting hammered with water in this droughty time while we only got a little baby sprinkle overnight; the best model we have again overestimating the strength of a an evening rain band that didn’t materialize. Got a couple of layers of clouds, but only a little baby trace, to continue to emphasize some character building disappointment.

Showers galore in the afternoons and overnight for the next three days. Monday looks to be have the wettest potential according to the U of AZ mod, today, Saturday, the least. Maybe there will be a Catalina surprise today, though. Clouds ballooning off The Lemmon and environs are supposed to trail out over Catalina today, not so much to the north as they did yesterday, so, remnants of early Cumulonimbus clouds that are locked to the mountain in the late morning and early afternoon, may bring rain here before they die completely.

Then there is always the chance on these days that our real diurnal rainfall maximum, the late afternoon and evening hours, will yet produce a dump. Its gotta happen one of these next three days….

The cloud story for yesterday

DSCN8334 — 1:35 PM. Close up of ice fall out (whitsh haze in center clearing).

DSCN8343 — 2:00 PM. Thunder on the mountain!

3:15 PM. From the cloud base photo collection. Quite nice for a time; thought there was a turret piling up over ME, but then it began to look tattered, developed bright spots in the middle, and shrank in size, indicating that the updraft feeding it was dying out.

3:21 PM. Thunderstorm trudges across desert north of Saddlebrooke. Outflow winds from the north reached Sutherland Heights about this time, helping, for a time, to cause that cloud base overhead to fatten up for awhile.

7:20 PM. The best parts of our sunsets aren’t always to the west!

Snowbirds may head back to Arizona as low temperature records fall in the eastern US in a few days

Forgetting about yesterday’s unforecast subdued afternoon convection hereabouts after about 1 PM), lets talk about the misery of others; the little crybabies that leave Arizona in the summertime, decimating its economy, so that they can be cooler and “happy” in northern climes (while dodging hail and tornadoes, we might add).

Well, how about them birdies being really COLD before very long, due to record breaking low July temperatures? Yes, that’s right, what’s left of the “polar vortex” will once again, due to global warming, of course, spin out of control and down into the northern US in just about 5-7 days. And with it, long term July low temperature records will fall in the eastern US. Count on it.

So, once again, as some scientists alleged last winter, global warming will actually cause cooling. (Almost everything that happens is due to GW these days, as we know. (“GW”, BTW, now repackaged in the catch all, temperature-neutral phrase, “Climate Change”, during the past few years because, globally, it stopped getting warmer way back in ’98, and when the years began to pile up without global warming, scientists had to find another phrase to hang their mistaken hats on. (Where was the usual scientific “caution” back then?)

HOWEVER, continuing on with this harangue, and being a “lukewarmer”, we must watch out that the coming big El Nino doesn’t release a spring-loaded, pent up release of global heat. Might well happen, so don’t give up on “GW” quite yet; hold some cards on that question for another few years.

And, of course, if there is a step jump up in global temperatures just ahead, the phrase, “climate change” will be dumped by scientists and media for “global warming” again. Count on it, #2.

But, I digress, mightily, mainly due to yesterday’s cloud disappointments.

—————————-

Not in a great mood after yesterday’s bust, as you can tell, except for that strong thunderstorm that pummeled the north side of the Catalinas beginning about 11:30 AM, that was pretty cool; had continuous thunder for about an hour and a half, too. Dan Saddle up on Oracle Ridge got 0.63 inches, but you can bet 1-2 inches fell somewhere up there.

I was so happy then.

I thought the “Great Ones” would arise upwind of us in the direction of Pusch Ridge, but no. Those clouds got SMALLER as the afternoon wore on, it was incredible, and by sunset they were gone with only trashy debris clouds of Altocumulus and Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus from great storms in Mexico drifting over our sky. Even the sunset was disappointing.

Well, that 3:15 am to 3:30 am little shower this morning than dropped 0.15 inches here in the Heights, and 0.24 inches down there at the Bridge by Lago del Oro gave a psych boost¹ that got me here on the keyboard.

10:55 AM. Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret. This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought). When you see this happening this early, you also look for an "explosion" some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this. — 10:55 AM. Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret. This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought). When you see this happening this early, you also look for an “explosion” some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this.

10:55 AM. Close up, in case you don't believe me. — 10:55 AM. Close up, in case you don’t believe me.

Today? Check here. Once again, mod expects early Cumulonimbus on The Lemmon, then groups of thunderstorms move in during the evening (as was more or less predicted yesterday, but didn’t happen.) Will go with mod again, though, because I would like that to happen.

The weather way ahead

We’ve talked about cold air, now to balance things off, how about a discussion of the warm air ahead? Real hot air.

Was blown away by the spaghetti outputs from last night for the period of about two weeks from now. You can see the whole package from the NOAA spaghetti factory here. Below, our weather in 12-15 days, usually beyond confident predictions, but not here:

201407221700 spag_f288_nhbg — Valid at 5 PM AST July 22nd. Massive blob of really hot air settles in over the western half of the US. In this map, the most reliable long term predictions are over the western half of the US and over the Saharan Desert (indicated by the lack of lines in those two areas. A lot of lines means the weather pattern is pretty unpredictable.)

Valid at 5 PM July 22nd. Massive upper level blob of really hot air sits over the entire West! — Valid at 5 PM July 25th. Massive upper level blob of really hot air continues to dominate the western half of the US.

The hot blob of air should lead to record HIGH temperatures all over the place in those days beginning around the 20-25th of July. Rainfall here? Indeterminant. If the high center sits over us, it might just be hot, real hot, but dry.

But, if the configuration aloft is as shown in the second plot, it could be very wet as tropical disturbances shift northwestward from Mexico into Arizona.

Sorry, can’t do much with precip from these, I don’t think.

The End, and covering all the possibilities, CM

====================================
¹Paraphrasing, the song for weathermen, those speaking to clouds; “Rain on me, when I’m downhearted….”

What we’re looking for

Clouds began building early yesterday on the Cat Mountains. Bases initially below Sam Ridge. It was a good sign of a possible “big day” since the lower the cloud bases initially, the more water the clouds will hold compared to a day with bases above Mt. Lemmon.

So, in our CMJ “club”, we look for that moment when clouds to begin form ice above Ms. Mt. Lemmon and her environs as the turrets climb ever higher in the morning and early afternoon sun, log it in our cloud diaries, and maybe compare to other recent days.

9:20 AM. Great portent for great rains. Clouds lining Sam (Samaniego) Ridge!

10:32 AM. Cumulus beginning shooting upward, but tops are far below ice-forming level (around 20 kft above sea level on days like this).

12"24 PM. Turret tops now have ascended to about 20 kft or so. — 12″24 PM. Turret tops now have ascended to about 20 kft or so.

12:28 PM. Same turret a few minutes later. Ice showing as droplets evaporate. — 12:28 PM. Same turret a few minutes later. Ice showing (frizzy stuff directly above second car on the road) as droplets evaporate. Unfortunately, those snowflakes, to melt into rain on the way down, have been orphaned from the updraft and are going to fall out into dry air instead of into cloudy air. Few will make it to the ground. That turret to the right has ascended even higher, therefore would be forming ice at this point, and rain to fall shortly. (From the “Not taken while driving collection, BTW). Traffic authorities remind drivers not to take a lot photos while driving.)

1:25 PM. An example of the rain that fell from those higher turrets. But again, the top sheared off so that a lot of the rain fell into drier air instead of down through the root of the cloud, and so showers were pretty light.

While CMP was expecting a gigantic blow up any time after this, it only happened in one spot, a sign that the atmosphere was in a suppression mode, that is, was not helping to cluster updrafts below cloud bases yesterday. Those forces can trump great low level humidity, dammitall.

Here’s the ONE behemoth of the many that were expected, based on an eyeball assessment early yesterday:

3:46 PM. Gargantuan Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (has anvil) southwest of Marana Twin Peaks area. Estimate 2 inches in the core fall of rain. Overshooting top, barely visible here in the middle of the anvil, indicates extra strong updrafts. — 3:46 PM. Gargantuan Cumulonimbus capillatus incus (has anvil) southwest of Marana Twin Peaks area. Instruction: Estimate 2 inches in the core fall of rain. Overshooting top, barely visible here in the middle of the anvil, indicates extra strong updrafts.

7:22 PM. Nice coloration on the Cat Mountains as a cluster of disorganized Cu hover over it, dead anvil behind it. — 7:22 PM. Nice coloration on the Cat Mountains as a cluster of disorganized Cu hover over it, dead anvil over and behind it.

The weather ahead, immediately ahead

Lots of water in the air again today, and since yesterday was a “down day”, caused by some upper level negative feature passing by (often happens AFTER a good day, like the night before last), expect an “up day” today, more showers and thunderstorms. Now, lets see if the U of AZ model says that as well, for support of this SOP (Seat of Pants) forecast…. Yep! Pretty happy right now. Go here to see the U of AZ Beowulf Cluster output for today.

The End.

“Tom Thunder” strikes Catalina three times; rare contrail in video

Probably haven’t heard that name in a while. It kind of went along with “Old St. Nick”, “Jack Frost”, the kind of thing that we kids called things.

Well, yesterday in the land of Catalina, we had three separate thunderstorms in about 8 h, all producing nearly continuous thunder, and when you could see it, nearly continuous lightning. Oddly, there were few cloud-to-ground strokes. The lightning, too, was odd, light bulbs going off in small areas of the thundering clouds, and when visible, was a fine, often curly cue thread, seemingly one third the width of “normal” lightning. Thunder was heard at 6 PM, 11 PM, and 1 AM¹ in those separate storms. Was a pretty fantastic light show, as you know, since you likely got up to watch it as I did.

All in all, while not a lot of rain fell in Catalina (one core over the Golder Ranch Bridge at Lago del Oro Parkway, presented the gauge there last night with 0.43 inches, though friend, Rick Bowers of Bowers Photo over there on Trotter said he got 0.65 inches, the most in town. Here in the Heights, just 0.24 inches. Still, its ALL good, except maybe for the flying ant swarms that are beginning to erupt.

Here’s the quickest way to look at some rainfall numbers around the region: Pima County ALERT gauges. And here fro the State, from WSI Intellicast’s rendering of radar-derived precip, usually pretty accurate.

The best way to reprise your cloud day, to make sure you logged all of them in your cloud diary, is here, courtesy of the fine University of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Meteorology time lapse film. It was so good yesterday, I put in two links to the same thing. Really is a complicated flow day, one cloud maven person has not seen before.

To wit, there were two layers of ice clouds traveling almost perpendicular to one another. Never saw that before. The height difference must have been huge. You will also notice some Altocumulus tufts at the SAME level as that

Big fat contrail leads to a “heavy” fall of ice crystals at about 9:30 AM, the aircraft flying in the lower ice clouds (where it was warmer, of course, and that means the ice content was higher than in the Cirrus clouds way up top that moved from the west). That higher amount of moisture allowed bigger ice crystals to form and fall out so obviously from the contrail.

And it was an extraordinary event for another reason: contrails aren’t supposed to form at the temperature this one did! You won’t find contrails forming at -20 to -30 C in Appleman’s famous nomogram for contrail formation. No, that’s right, you’re not supposed to get them until about -35 to -40! Could be a publication in this….

IN FACT, what happened is related to the “Hole Punch” and “Ice Canal” phenomenon² resulting more often from aircraft flying through droplet clouds like Altocumulus, ones that are also very cold, usually colder than -15 C. So, the ground has been tread pretty heavily in this domain EXCEPT that there was NO DROPLET cloud where that strongly precipitating contrail was laid down! Could be a publication, to repeat…some “sci glory” might be down the road….)

Here’s the Tucson sounding that tells all:

The balloon sounding for Tucson yesterday morning, valid at 5 AM AST. Note reversal of winds (west at 40,000 feet or so), then from the east at 25,000 feet or so (above sea level).

Well, got WAY behind in chores following the “vacation” in WA and OR lately, so will quit here. Instead of a cloud shot, I will leave you with this public service reminder about dumping in others trash bins.

Putting stuff in other people's dumpsters can be financially ruinous. Don't do it. — Putting stuff in other people’s dumpsters can lead to financial ruin. Don’t believe me? Read the bottom lines (see below).

You’ll need a second mortgage to pay the fine! And, why don’t they just make it a million dollars…

More thundershowers on the way here as the Pac NW goes into a heat wave over the next few days. Heat? Hah! They know nothing about HEAT. If its 85 F, they think its really hot!

Forecasting tip: in the summer when the Pac NW gets hot, we’re usually wet. So, lots of great days ahead, and more visits by “Tom Thunder.”

The End.

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¹Weren’t we supposed to drink Dr. Pepper at these times?

²Mr Cloud Maven person, yours truly, had his feelings hurt when his paper about his own research aircraft producing ice in clouds at below freezing temperatures, co-authored with Peter V. Hobbs, was rejected twice, but then accepted on the third try (way back in the early 1980s) and in the end, everybody was happy. You can read the whole story here. It starts out, so you can see how bad I felt, “…the reviewers are still unconvinced by these controversial claims.”

A day with Cirrocumulus, Cirrus and Cumulus; summer rain season looks to start on time

What a day, Mr. and Mrs. Catalina, except for that last second “header”:

7:57 AM. Cirrocumulus with exceptionally fine granulation (left center). You might feel a little chop if you were flying in it, but it would be hardly anything. More chop, lower right, where you have something akin to ocean waves rolling along from left to right.

8:04 AM. Pretty Cirrus fibratus (strands are pretty straight in Ci fib).

4:47 PM. Pretty scene over the S-Brooke population complex. — 4:47 PM. Pretty Cu humilis and fractus scene near the S-Brooke population complex.

5:05 PM. Nice shadow bounding the Catalinas, — 5:05 PM. Cu hum and fractus over the Catalinas, Nice shadow bounds the mountains I thought.

The weather way ahead, 10 days and beyond; dreaming green pixels

Rain showing up around these parts beginning overnight on July 3rd-4th, kind of a normal time for a summer rain season onset. This from last evening’s global model crunch. Prior model runs have been dry, so it could be bogus, of course. But, its a hopeful sign. Rains every day after that in this run. Below, the titillating start as rendered by IPS MeteoStar:

Valid at 5 AM AST July 4th. Green areas show those ones where the model has calculated some rain in the prior 12 h.

Valid at 5 PM AST July 8th. Raining all over Arizona by this time. How great would that be? Com'on model! — Valid at 5 PM AST July 8th. Raining all over Arizona by this time. How great would that be? Com’on model! Don’t let me down! A feel a really old song coming on about being let down.

Let’s look at some spaghetti and see if the “solution” above has any credibility at all:

Valid at 5 PM July 4th. Note gaps in red lines in northern Arizona and NM. Errorful mod runs are therefore pretty confident the necessary ridge of high pressure aloft WILL be centered to the north of us. So, there is a fair amount of confidence from spaghetti that the summer rain season will start pretty much on time. — Valid at 5 PM July 4th. Note gaps in red lines in Arizona and NM. Errorful mod runs (deliberately so, recall) are therefore pretty confident the necessary ridge of high pressure aloft WILL be centered just to the north of us at this time, extruding all the way from the central Atlantic. So, there is a fair amount of confidence from spaghetti that the summer rain season will start pretty much on time. What’s also supportive is the bulge in the jet stream to the north in southern Canada, as indicated by the bunching of those bluish lines. Pac NW looks cool and rainy with this pattern, BTW. You can enjoy more spaghetti here.

So, right or wrong, you heard it here first because I got up early; summer rain season looks to start on time.

The End.

The streets of Marana-Oro Valley-Catalina, the cloud ones

In case you didn’t notice, there was a prolonged street of clouds emanating from possibly as far away as Kit Peak, or maybe just the Tucson Mountains. Lasted for a few hours.Happens only on days with relatively shallow clouds (cloud-topped boundary layer) with a little wind, meaning that the thermals from the surface heating ended up being capped by an inversion or other stable layer, and those thermals form clouds in some places. In this case, a long line of intermittent clouds formed from an initial air bump caused by those mountains far to the SW of us. CTBL is more often invoked as a term by cloud folks when the sky is much cloudier in low clouds than these shots from two days ago, such as when the sky is covered in Stratocumulus clouds.

These kinds of streets occur over the same places whenever a day like this comes along. Think of it, especially here in Arizona, as a row of shady air under which you might like to live compared to those areas on either side of this cloud “street.” In Seattle, where the “cloud topped boundary layer” is almost a daily occurrence, you want to avoid being under the cloud street, where it can block the sun, and instead find the clearer slots!

3:19 PM. Barely hanging on now, but still present. Dissipated within about a half hour of this shot.

TUS rawin for June 18th, 5 PM AST (launched about an hour and a half before that).

For those sharpies that day and logged in their cloud diaries that ice formed in those shallow Cumulus clouds, they will be a little chagrined by this TUS sounding. This sounding suggests the clouds around the balloon were topping at -8 C, too warm for ice formation in shallow Cu. Let us begin to explain this puzzle by presenting evidence of ice formation in those clouds on the 18th:

4:13 PM. Virga hangs down from Cu mediocris, maybe only a km thick toward Charoleau Gap. — 4:13 PM. Virga hangs down from Cu mediocris, maybe only a km thick toward Charouleau Gap. Lots of ice visible.

4:13 PM. Overhead view of likely ice vellum between Cumulus clouds. The clouds themselves may well have a few ice crystals, but too few to provide any visual indication except in the clearings between them. Ice crystals evaporate more slowly than liquid drops when encountering sub-saturated air between clouds, and so can be visible a bit longer if present between clouds in marginal situations like this. Confidence level that this little patch is ice and not just haze is about 70-80 percent.

Simple answer to our connundrum; due to lifting of the air as it approached and went over the Catalina Mountains, the tops of the clouds reached those temperature below -10 C where is begins to form. We would guess even closer to -15 C in that cloud in the distance beyond Charouleau Gap due to the amount of ice. Ice increases with decreasing cloud top temperature, but the temperature at which ice onsets can change on a daily basis; higher onset of ice temperatures on days in which the clouds have larger drops in their tops (a phenomenon originally reported by Ludlam in 1952, then re-discovered by Rangno and Hobbs (1988) who did not, at that time, know of the Ludlam finding, and thus, did not cite it. Pretty embarrassing, really. Was cited later in an update, however.

The weather way ahead

Seasonal rains beginning to show up in southern Arizona now on models beginning around the 4th of July as a big anti-cyclone parks itself over the Four Corners area in the latest model run from 11 PM AST last night. Very excellent run.

The End