Category: The weather ahead

After re-thinking the powerful storm yesterday based on the morning’s new data and making it a semi-marginal one, most of the rain to the south, the Canadian model run came back last night with a powerful AZ storm again!   Forecasters who want lots of rain here in AZ and Catalina can get manic-depressive during these fluctuating model outputs.  The fluctuations in the PREDICTED intensity of the storm tell us that all is not known well  upstream.

Below is what transpired in this, “pretty good” Canadian model beginning with yesterday’s “retraction” (first panel below) after predicting the mammoth storm over all of AZ this weekend just 12 h earlier.  Note in this panel, valid for Sunday morning, how little flow there is over AZ  (indicated by very few “lines” or as we would call them, “contours”) compared to the run the night before (which I excitedly displayed here)!  Pitiful change.  In this first panel, upper left, we’re between two jets, the one looping around the low off Baja and the one across the northern Rockies.   Not good.  You need flowmax to help squeeze winter moisture out of the clouds as they bang up against our mountains.  And with flow, you get better overall rising motions, the kind that creates vast areas of deep clouds and rain.  We don’t got that in this first map, and you can see the heavier precip (yellowish areas) are mostly S of the border.

So, a disappointing sight, but in view of the sudden appearance of a giant storm from nowhere in the models (suggesting an error), not an unexpected “retraction” as was mentioned in yesterday’s blog. But, that “giant storm model run”,  24 h ago did see SOMETHING.

Why do I know?

Because the latest global data (from last evening), has increased the strength of the storm  hitting us to something major in all of AZ. Check the areas of precip in the next two panels from last night, hot off the press, for this Saturday and Sunday.

Also the timing of the AZ precip is drastically different in these two runs just 12 h apart.  Last night’s run brings the major storm in on Saturday and continues precip into Sunday, while the run just 12 h before that has a DRY Saturday in all of AZ! Quite remarkable changes from global observations just 12 h apart. Look, too, and how the flow over us (upper left panel, and marked by more “lines” over AZ) is so much stronger in these latest predictions compared with the flow predicted just 12 h earlier (upper left panel in the first image).

So, what does a weatherman do?  Personally, since I like rain in Arizona, I go with the new model output completely. But a real weatherman, one that is a little more objective (BTW, not an objectionable one) would play down the storm and think about “spaghetti”, not food, but plots that is.  “Are the models “converging” to a better storm or not?”, he would ask himself.  Not me.  Do small tweaks still lead to huge differences in the amount jet stream over us, predicted rain, etc.?

Last, an example of a northern hemisphere “spaghetti” plot for model predictions for this Saturday, a plot that we all use that clearly shows the models are clueless (well, at least erratic) in their predictions for the West Coast and Southwest.  That “cluelessness” is indicated by the “bowl of rubber bands” appearance of the lines off the West Coast and over the Southwest.  Where the lines are on top of each other is where there is little chance the prediction will go awry.  Where there is a “bowl of rubber bands” there is tremendous uncertainty.

So, the spaghetti plot is showing that here in AZ, its possible to have either significant rain with some flooding with this storm over the weekend, or a just a little light rain.  If you like spaghetti, you can go here and see a bunch of them. Enjoy the uncertainty.  Its a little like the rest of life.  Me, I’m preparing for a lot of rain over the weekend.  I want to see the Sutherland Wash flowing!

The End.

The cloud drought has been a little depressing here in Catalina, Arizona, particularly in view of repeated computer model runs that showed that the next 15 days do not even shown rain getting close to us.

But today, oh my, today’s run.  This is a model run for the ages!  Take a look at these, part of a 15 day loop of the forecasted positions highs, lows, and rain areas (represented by color blobs) found at IPS Meteostar:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So what does it mean when, day after day, the computer models show no rain for two weeks ahead in updated runs day after day, and then,  like someone you know having a different personality than they used to the next time you see them, all this rain appears in Arizona?

Its probably WRONG.

One might guess right off that when such a drastic change is shown (no hint of rain to deluges)  that this might be an outlier model run.   One could almost bet that in the computer model’s take on tonight’s data (those runs available late tonight and tomorrow morning, that this widespread rain will be greatly reduced or even eliminated.  Darn it, but this must be considered.

Still, its so fantastic to FINALLY see some rain in Arizona being predicted!  And its something to keep an eye on.  Note, too, that all the rain is associated with a tropical storm that moves across Baja California into Arizona.  But, we have seen that predicted before this fall, too, and it didn’t happen.

So, must temper excitement, but at least there’s something to hope for.

The End.

 

Of weather forecasting?  Models?  Me?  Nope.

Turning Casey Stengel’s famous comment about his woeful New York Mets into one about weather forecasting seemed appropriate after our little disturbance passed over yesterday afternoon and evening with hardly even virga here!  Got a little depressed at how delusional I was about a squall-line (lion?) feature I thought would accompany that.  No way, no how;  just winds and dust yesterday, and some Cumulus and Cirrus clouds, maybe a Cumuonimbus off in the distance about 1000 miles away.  It was sad all right as weather forecasting self-esteem plummeted.

Reminded me,  too,  of my euphoric thoughts days in advance when the models were predicting so much rain in the area.  If you don’t know of it, there is a lab standard called the Passionate Love Scale (PLS) developed by psychologists.  And I went through that as though I was a single guy who’s just met his soulmate;  the initial obsessive-delusional stage (sometimes called, “filling in the blanks” about that person you really don’t know yet and is still an enigma).   In my case,  thinking about all that rain that was coming all the time.  And how the clouds would look.

Then,   “euphoric”, as in the PLS,  as when things are going well in the early relationship, even just a few comments;  for me in weather forecasting, it was when the models were replicating a lot of rain in run after run in the days ahead of yesterday.  It was “in the bag”, as they say, or so it seemed.  Yes, I felt great.   There would be a dent in the drought!

But, no.   It was all a delusion, especially on my part, seeing in my mind things like a nice arcus cloud with a squall-line feature that I thought would move through yesterday afternoon or evening.  No way, no how, just winds and dust.   Dammitall, to cuss that bit.  Imagine, in this same PLS vein, you think you’re new partner-to-be-maybe  is brainy, and then you learn that she’s spends a lot of time planning her day based on her horoscope!  Hmmmm.

Well, all this delusion that can arise in humans is why we have double blind, randomized trials in medicine and other solid sciences, and it certainly arose in me for this last storm (and in other areas which aren’t lurid enough for re-tellling here–hahahah).

So, we have another chance at a LITTLE rain (not getting carried away again here, being cautious about “my” new model runs).  Bottom amount, trace, top amount, 0.25 inches, by Friday, noon.  OK?

Skies were nice, though, yesterday.  Here are some shots for aesthetics.  It will help you remember and forget.   First, cumulus racing from the S with a dusty horizon, second, moderate Cumulus with virga, third, dusty sunset featuring some Cirrocumulus (whitish clouds below higher Cirrus).  Finally, mom, asking, “HOW could you make a forecast as bad as that yesterday, son?”  She was pretty sad about it and wouldn’t “let it go.”  (hahah, just kidding here.)  ((That’s my nature; helps relieve pain.))

 

The End

 

Check it out for AZ and the SW!  Will the drought be over in a week?  This could be the best model run I have ever seen and that’s why I have links to it twice in one line even though it is based on data from yesterday morning, the 1st.  (It will be replaced later this morning, but how can the next run be better than this one?)  Note all the rain (colored regions in the lower right panel) valid for Tuesday afternoon (Wednesday at “00Z”)!  I got goosebumps looking at this.  Note, too, upper low center over El Centro, CA, (upper left panel), a great spot for a good rain dump here in Cat Land.

Some of yesterday evening’s threatening clouds are shown below.  Note distant rainshaft indicating a much taller top, a “Cumulonimbus” (Cb) embedded in these layer clouds.  Sadly, not one Cb passed over Catalina last night.  Only a trace came down from those threatening skies.  Too much dry air between us and them clouds is what done it.  However, this morning, dewpoints at the ground are up all over southern Arizony and with that, the likelihood that more rain will reach the ground.

The End for now…

 

 

 

That vexious tropical storm is once again shown to move northward into Baja Cal and then its remnants move into the SW, combine with a winter-like upper air trough, and together produce some good AZ rains.  After a period of depression about this tropical depression going to the west and dying instead of into AZ as I had mentioned in two earlier “statements” here, I can be happy again.

Here are a couple of examples from last night’s NCEP model runs from IPS Meteor Star:  The areas of color are areas of rain.  It takes a couple of more days (last panel) for that tropical air to be bound up and wrung out by that winter-like cool trough (last panel).

In the meantime, we can be thrilled, I tell you, with interesting Altocumulus castellanus and floccus with virga here and there today and maybe tomorrow, too.  Those clouds make for great sunrise and sunset color.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I thought sure that late September-early October tropical storm entry into AZ and Catalina land would disappear; too good to be true.   But today,  after several more model runs, there it is, the remnant practically over where we live the afternoon of October 1st (2nd panel)!  (These are National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model runs repackaged by IPS Meteostar.

So, something to look forward to along with an occasional Cumulus humilis cloud until then it seems.  I hope you’re happy now.

The End

I like this model output from “12Z” this morning, and so I thought my other reader besides me would like it, too.

These are the latest gov’t models as repackaged by IPS Meteostar–they do a great job at presenting weather stuff.

These are for the afternoons of September 29th and 30th, respectively.  Note hurricane (low center) passing over Cabo San Lucas on the 29th.  Fantastic.   It is not the same low they had in the Mexican Pacific before of which I spoke.  Its an even better (stronger) one.  Not only that, in the days after I mentioned the possibility of AZ rain from a tropical storm, there were some “bad” model runs which either had no tropical storm, or showed a tropical storm moving off into the Pacific and not moving this way.   That made which those model runs quite bad, and not even worth mentioning.  But now I am happy again.

A note of explanation:  the areas of colors from green to blue to pink are where the model thinks it has rained during the past 12 h.  Blue and pink are where a lot more rain than in green areas is forecast to fall.  Note all the green in droughty AZ and NM!  This could be a really nice rain, one that might keep the remaining green weeds green for a little longer, IF the models verify.

Lastly, a picture of some greenish weeds around the State Trust Lands above Catalina land yesterday FYI.

The End