Yep, unless you were outside yesterday morning, you probably missed the few drops that fell. But fall they did, giving us officially a trace of rain for January! In case you don’t believe me, here is a shot of the incoming shafts of rain. OK, “veils” of rain. Now, a historical forecasting criteria note… Continue reading Trace of rain ruffles drought in Catalina! New storm approaches in five days or so followed by a several day dry, warm period followed by more storm threats a few days after that; January beginning to look wetter than December though it wouldn’t take that much rain to exceed Deember’s meager total of just 0.27 inches
Category: The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more)
Less data; but more filling
A “storm”, one with “rain,” has at last shown up in the numerical prognostics for late on Thanksgiving Weekend. It appears for the first time on last night’s 11 PM AST model run. At that time (11 PM AST) we have less global data to work with when the model crunches out its forecast, and… Continue reading Less data; but more filling
Goodbye summer storms; new book out about clouds!
First, I will shamelessly plug a book on clouds, “A Sideways Look at Clouds”, by a well-published and acclaimed author friend, Maria Mudd Ruth. Its about her odyssey into them, mentally and physically, after she realized they were something she really had not paid much attention to before mid-life, then she had to know EVERYTHING… Continue reading Goodbye summer storms; new book out about clouds!
May to have measurable rain in Catalina and environs!
This is great news, heard here first of course (haha), after a pitiful April with no measurable rain. Poor desert. Its been suggested by the NOAA spaghetti factory for some time, but now actual precipitation is showing up in the models pretty regularly for around May 8th and thereafter, and so we can gleefully start… Continue reading May to have measurable rain in Catalina and environs!
Best chance for April showers in Catalina around the 20th
Cooling off now after the Big Review of NAS 2003…and finally getting back to the lighthearted, carefree, playful, well, silly, mode normally found here (he sez). As a brief follow up, I have yet to receive a “thank you very much for your absurdly late review of our tome on cloud seeding; had you submitted… Continue reading Best chance for April showers in Catalina around the 20th
“Peru’s Niño”
I thought you’d like to read this (Peru’s Niño), forwarded to me by Niño expert, Nate M. Pretty incredible to read about what is happening down there in the wake of the Big Niño of 2015-16, which really turned out to be more of a couch potato in terms of weather production in the Great… Continue reading “Peru’s Niño”
March 2017: In like a lamb, out like a lion? Yep.
The title represents one of the great forecasting lores of our time, developed over centuries, really, that will once again verify. BTW, this particular lore has a “skill score” up around 0.9011. Its unbelievable, really. If March “roars in like a lion” count on the opposite at the end of the month. Many of… Continue reading March 2017: In like a lamb, out like a lion? Yep.
Rain clouds drop more rain on Catalina; 0.24 inches logged as of 7 AM
But what kind of rain clouds? That’s why you come here, to answer important questions like that. After all, those precipitating clouds could have been Nimbostratus, Stratocumulus opacus praecipitatio, Cumulonimbus capillatus incus flammagenitus, or even just “plain” Cumulonimbus capillatus (no anvil), and possibly, Stratus opacus nebulosos praecipitatio. Of course, with no large fires around, we… Continue reading Rain clouds drop more rain on Catalina; 0.24 inches logged as of 7 AM
Dry, dry, hot, dry, all mixed up, then, blammo, the storms roll in again
Well, it will be pretty obvious, ludicrously so to spaghetti lovers, the sequence shown below. It goes from “warm in the West (again); cold in the East pattern to another undercutting flow from the Pacific, the kind we’re having right now under the “soft underbelly” of a big blocking high, except that the tropical flow… Continue reading Dry, dry, hot, dry, all mixed up, then, blammo, the storms roll in again
Future shock
From IPS MeteoStar, this “YIKES!” Is this the Big Niño pattern we’ve been waiting for all these years (well, one, anyway)? Its the kind of thing we looked for last winter during the giant El Niño and there was all that publicity about how much precip the Great Southwest would likley get. Then it was… Continue reading Future shock